Stewy Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 7 hours ago, Tony_Teacake said: 2 of our biggest recessions happened here in the UK have happened within the last 32 years. The early 90s and 2008. How many starved? Even a recession these days is a time of plenty. I started my career early 2000s and don't recall anything being bad around 2008 employment-wise. We've had brief dips and Plateaus from time to time but no hardship for decades. This will continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 3 hours ago, Stewy said: How many starved? Even a recession these days is a time of plenty. I started my career early 2000s and don't recall anything being bad around 2008 employment-wise. We've had brief dips and Plateaus from time to time but no hardship for decades. This will continue. This is why you are so out of touch. Your attitude is I'm OK so everybody else must be which is not the case. Maybe you have been one of the lucky ones who have not experienced any hardship but many good hard working honest people have had there life's turned upside down when we have had recessions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Tony_Teacake said: This is why you are so out of touch. Your attitude is I'm OK so everybody else must be which is not the case. Maybe you have been one of the lucky ones who have not experienced any hardship but many good hard working honest people have had there life's turned upside down when we have had recessions. The impact of the 2008 recession was felt by working folk more via the subsequent austerity measures over the next 10 years or so, not during the recession. So the correlation between hardship and GDP growth is actually quite poor. You would struggle to pick out periods of recessions from a time chart of poverty rates. And high levels of poverty and inequalty is no sure sign of recession. USA is a ever present reminder of that. Unemployment rates are a stronger indicator, which currently stand at 4.2, and based on this there is no indication we will see a deep recession. But that doesn't say much about whether people are strugggling. It also doesn't say much about whether the better off 50% can afford to pay peak prices for housing. Edited December 27, 2023 by mynamehere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Well, well, well. You called it folks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Data Dave said: Well, well, well. You called it folks First time for everything 😆 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/a1c11bfd622940cc9681c3423e2fba35 Aged well in all of 9 days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 @Brendan110_0 @onlooker @jiltedjen @Fromage Frais @scottbeard @HousePriceTooHigh @TheChangeIsCast @Big Orange @Dames @nero120 @shlomo @Postman @acer @Sackboii @Social Justice League @70PC @davemb @DarkHorseWaits-NoMore @abbot26 @12345 @LetsBuild @bumblebeeandboy @luvadealme @gerkin @Scorchio @regprentice @mkil @Bear Necessities @Far Canal @poohbear @Bob8 @Money Frugality @sandster @TheResponsibleHouseBuyer @Mandalorian @Sn50 Coif @Flat Bear @Tulip74 @fellow @2buyornot2buy @Mancunian284 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HousePriceTooHigh Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 You only had to see the sentiment in the real world to know its a recession. Th economists etc spend too long with their backwards looking models Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 27/12/2023 at 11:26, mynamehere said: Unemployment rates are a stronger indicator, which currently stand at 4.2, and based on this there is no indication we will see a deep recession Looks like it has already started. It's funny when you think these same people were saying 12 months ago there won't be a recession. Now they are saying it will only be a shallow one. My reply to these comments would be "You are out of touch". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burk Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Data Dave said: https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/a1c11bfd622940cc9681c3423e2fba35 Aged well in all of 9 days Yeah I was gonna say, that's not what I'm hearing: Construction tops insolvency table with 4371 collapses last year https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/financial/administrations/construction-tops-insolvency-table-with-4371-collapses-last-year-30-01-2024/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bear Necessities Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 (edited) Edit - I see it was a good list not a bad list, ignore this post! Edited February 15 by Bear Necessities Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burk Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 (edited) So the economy has failed to grow in real terms since 2008 and yet here we are still importing a million a year to these shores, at a cost of £8million quid a day. I'm sure they'll get us out of recession with all those Uber eats and deliveroo jobs. #sarcasm Edited February 15 by burk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, Data Dave said: Well, well, well. You called it folks Two years ago. Unlike the 'experts'. 🤙 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Far Canal Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 To get a recession with such high inflation occurring last year (January 2024 RPI is 4.9%) makes it even worse. However, GDP isn't the end all. Much better to look at "do people feel better off than last year?". You can be assured that the vast majority don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Far Canal said: To get a recession with such high inflation occurring last year (January 2024 RPI is 4.9%) makes it even worse. However, GDP isn't the end all. Much better to look at "do people feel better off than last year?". You can be assured that the vast majority don't. That strikes me as an inequality issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, Bear Necessities said: Edit - I see it was a good list not a bad list, ignore this post! 👍 should we shame the naughty listers? Game of thrones style….shame…shame…shame…. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 We are being robbed at 4% per annum (inflation) all whilst the economy contracts (recession). Boy o boy what a time to be alive (/ in dollars!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 think most people active in the real economy could see it shiteing itself end of last year. Didn’t really need a confirmation to know that, although it may make others wake up to the reality of the situation. Think we will start to recover mid way through 2025. Although no recovering in housing market until end of 2027. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, jiltedjen said: think most people active in the real economy could see it shiteing itself end of last year. Didn’t really need a confirmation to know that, although it may make others wake up to the reality of the situation. Think we will start to recover mid way through 2025. Although no recovering in housing market until end of 2027. By the "real economy", do you mean how the average working person is doing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandalorian Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I don't need no fancy models to see what's going to happen. Just go for a walk round town and talk to people. You know, like economists don't... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HousePriceTooHigh Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 hours ago, Far Canal said: To get a recession with such high inflation occurring last year (January 2024 RPI is 4.9%) makes it even worse. However, GDP isn't the end all. Much better to look at "do people feel better off than last year?". You can be assured that the vast majority don't. Bingo And this is why the rest of this decade is going to be incredibly hard on little old blighty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deerohdeer1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 hours ago, Data Dave said: @Brendan110_0 @onlooker @jiltedjen @Fromage Frais @scottbeard @HousePriceTooHigh @TheChangeIsCast @Big Orange @Dames @nero120 @shlomo @Postman @acer @Sackboii @Social Justice League @70PC @davemb @DarkHorseWaits-NoMore @abbot26 @12345 @LetsBuild @bumblebeeandboy @luvadealme @gerkin @Scorchio @regprentice @mkil @Bear Necessities @Far Canal @poohbear @Bob8 @Money Frugality @sandster @TheResponsibleHouseBuyer @Mandalorian @Sn50 Coif @Flat Bear @Tulip74 @fellow @2buyornot2buy @Mancunian284 Where was my shout??! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 35 minutes ago, deerohdeer1 said: Where was my shout??! Apologises if I missed you off 😊 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, Mandalorian said: I don't need no fancy models to see what's going to happen. Just go for a walk round town and talk to people. So you're that loon then... The wealthy are off walking hills and visiting micropubs and enjoying 9-course tasting menus rather than wasting time moping around identikit town centres looking for shared misery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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