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House Price Crash Forum

Data Dave

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Everything posted by Data Dave

  1. Bought at 30k - currently in profit. Thanks @MonsieurCopperCrutch
  2. Financial institutions happy to pay 'near zero' to savers but increased rates for overdraft lending by nearly around 80% since Covid! Source: B.o.E
  3. Hard to see a crash inside of 12 months with demand and recent stimulus unless there is a banking crisis and credit squeeze. Shown in the graph above, it was circa 20 months from peak to trough.
  4. No I wasnt Which areas in particular you can break down the data by london borough I believe Source is Land Registry, correct its the average of all property types sold across London. Able to break down the data by property type however... Asking prices probably didn't budge much so it may have not been visible but sold prices moved around 20%, again though 'on average'.
  5. North, South or Midlands, when we crash - we all crash together! I read lots about the north/south divide and house prices in the mainstream media and its really not that true. Or that prices in the south are 'more stable' and more volatile in the north. Infact if anything its probably the reverse, in the last crash the prices in the south and London, in percentage terms fell the hardest. *South = South West, South East & East of England *Midlands = East and West Mids *North = North West, North East & Yorkshire and the Humber
  6. Will im an idiot, I read Winchester! Dough. Ignore me
  7. Bit of skew as Winchester is obviously a smaller data set vs the UK & England av' but none the less just to highlight the volatility there
  8. Prices in Winchester are much more volatile than neighbouring areas, with higher highs but lower lows, between 5-9% in some cases when compared to UK av. I wonder why that is, do people tend to rush to buy up then sell off and drift further down the coast as prices are cheaper...?
  9. According to the Office for National Statistics (O.N.S) the median monthly rent in the North West £585 and with an average property price of £189,245 that gives a unimpressive gross yield of 3.71%. So if rental yields are 'low' speculators must believe there to be significant capital growth in the North West...
  10. New builds in the North West are more expensive than existing properties and that gap is also increasing. In Jan 2008 the price gap was £47,214 or 33.7% In Mar 2021 [latest data] the price gap was £78,369 or 42.5%
  11. Cash buyers do seem to negotiate a discount. In Jan 2012 the average difference in prices paid between mortgage purchases and cash purchases was 10%. Now it stands at 14%, a widening of 40% in 9 years.
  12. Cash is King - Are investors flocking to the North West? Latest released data shows the volume of cash purchases out strips mortgage purchases for the first time ever!
  13. Average prices paid in May 2021 [latest data] by First Time Buyers was £159,125 vs £215,393 for Former Owner Occupiers
  14. Long term sales volumes are increasing in the North West. However volumes fell below long term trend line during 2020 and prices increased. Volumes are down since with Covid on 5 year trendline but prices are up. More demand with less houses for sale.
  15. Strong market: The North West out performed the other northern regions of England before Covid and since
  16. 'Race for Space' - Flats and maisonettes have 'under performed' since Covid19 outbreak
  17. The news is in: Headline statistics for May 2021 The average price of a property in the UK was £254,624 The annual price change for a property in the UK was 10.0% The monthly price change for a property in the UK was 0.9% The monthly index figure (January 2015 = 100) for the UK was 133.5
  18. Oops - Im saying MoM up 1.4% and YoY 10.30%
  19. Next publication of UK HPI: The May 2021 UK HPI will be published at 9.30am on Wednesday 14 July 2021 [i.e tomorrow morning] Anyone care for a guess at the MoM change and YoY change in percentage terms? For reference: Nationwide had May month on month up 1.8% & YoY up 10.90% Halifax had May month on month up 1.35% and YoY up 9.5%
  20. What about the 'majority' of assets? Antiques, Bitcoin, Gold, Fine Art, Stocks... same answer?
  21. Fair enough. Prehaps an ambiguous question to begin with. The reason I asked it was ive been asked to interview someone next week. I never really conducted many but whenever I did sit in id ask the 'odd' questions. 'Would you have something if it meant someone else couldn't?' things like that. They used to think it was a question about being a team player and answer accordingly, it actually wasn't. Because of the job role I just needed an answer, either yes, no or my favourite ''id need more data to come to a decision''. Sometimes if there wasnt too many glares from HR id get to ask a follow up question ''would you buy a house if it meant someone else would go homeless?'' Usual reply ''of course not.'' After that ''but if you didnt buy the property it would mean you'd be homeless, would you still not buy it?'' And you can guess the response. I suppose our CVs say on paper whether or not we can do the job from qualifications or experience but the interview is a sniff out of whether we could all work together 40-50 hours a week under so called 'contractual slavery' ha! Do we always, or the majority; ultimately in the end, serve our own purpose? And then in a free and fair market, if the majority of those market participants deem an asset to be worth more the price goes up. If the majority deem it to be worth less the price goes down. So majority rules, should it not always rule?
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