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Data Dave

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  1. From the Zoopla report: What will happen to house prices next? There are several factors signalling that the impetus in the market seen over the last two years is starting to ease. 1. Buyer demand As can be seen from the chart below, the level of buyer demand in the market, while still high compared to the five-year average, is beginning to recede to more normal levels. As the pressure on supply from buyer demand starts to ease, it will put a brake on the intense upwards pressure on pricing. 2. Time to Sell Another signal from the market is coming from the speed at which home sales are proceeding. The average time to sell (listing to sale agreed) is rising - up to 22 days in May from 20 days in March. The fastest-moving market is in the South West, with the average length of time taken between listing and agreeing a sale less than three weeks (19 days). This reflects the high levels of demand in the South West since the start of the pandemic, as some buyers making a move prioritise access to rural and coastal settings. This is underlined by price growth in Bournemouth at 10.2%, putting it among the cities with the highest levels of growth in the year to May. We expect the slight slowdown to continue, with buyer demand for houses in the South West seeing the sharpest decline over the last month, down 14%, even as it remains 37% above the 5-year average. Homes in London are staying on the market longest, with 35 days between listing and sale agreed – although this is still a large reduction on the 5-year average of 50 days to agree a sale. The average time taken from searching for a home to exchange, at which point buyers can move in, is now averaging around 170 days - around five and a half months, according to Zoopla’s recent buyer May 2022 | UK House Price Index | Page 3 survey, signalling that those who want to move this year need to consider commencing their search, and their home sale. 3. Mortgage rates Mortgage rates are rising as the cost of money increases, driven by increases to the Bank of England base rate. While tracker mortgage rate and SVRs tend to move in line with the base rate, lenders have more control about how they price their fixedrate loans, based on how much funding they have pre-secured at certain rates, and how competitive they want to be in the market. So the rise in the cost of fixed-rate mortgages is less linear. Even so, buyers are now facing average rates of 3.37% for a 5-year fixed-rate loan, according to Moneyfacts, compared to 2.64% in December. This increases the annual cost of a loan for an average priced home (£250,000) with a 25% deposit and 25-year term by £870. If interest rates continue to rise, the costs of paying for a mortgage will also continue to climb, meaning that for those looking to move home, taking action sooner rather than later will be beneficial. The stress-testing rules for mortgages introduced since the global financial crisis means that many existing homeowners have proved their income can withstand rising interest rates. This signals limited numbers of forced sales, which have a negative impact on pricing. The recent announcement that stress testing rules will be adjusted for borrowers, so they no longer have to prove they can afford repayments at the Standard Variable Rate +3%, will mean a some additional borrowers, especially first-time buyers, will be able to access loans, but it will not make a significant change to lending levels. The general rule for lending to be limited to 4.5 times income remains. The majority of homeowners are also locked into a fixed-rate mortgage, meaning they are protected from current interest rate moves. There is also a buoyant employment market, helping offset the more challenging inflation environment for now. The factors outlined in this report signal that the rate of house price growth will slow through the rest of the year, but we are not anticipating price declines. House price growth remains strong by any measure. The levels of annual growth seen over the last couple of months are the highest since late 2007. There are signals now however that the impetus in the market is beginning to ease, although this will take some time to be reflected in the rates of annual house price growth, which are more a reflection of sales being agreed several months earlier. Even so, we expect price growth to start to fall back, reflecting the fact that buyer demand is starting to normalise from record peaks, although it is crucial to highlight that demand levels are still more than 30% higher than the 5-year average. The market is still moving very quickly, but the time between listing a home for sale and agreeing a sale is starting to creep up, another signal that the market is moving back towards more normal conditions. The economic outlook, and multiple base rate rises, will act as a drag on sentiment and activity as we move through the rest of the year, but activity levels so far this year still indicate transactions at 1.2 million across the UK. But we do expect the rate of price growth to ease – on a monthly basis price growth has already moderated. A continuation of this trend, with some monthly declines, will mean annual price growth will reach +3% by year end.
  2. On Saturday, June 11, a severe storm passed through the town of Hardin, damaging several structures, including the power generating facility that supplies Marathon’s bitcoin mining operations with power. Prior to the storm, the 30,000 miners Marathon had deployed in Montana represented over 75% of the Company’s active fleet. With these miners offline, Marathon’s bitcoin production is expected to be significantly reduced until repairs to the power generating facility in Montana can be completed or until the miners can be relocated to new facilities. https://ir.marathondh.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1287/marathon-digital-holdings-provides-update-on-its-bitcoin
  3. Woah, steady, that's unnecessary, you're are simply expressing opposite views
  4. Sure can: Shock - its down! Infact real HP's are the same now (£270,452) as there were in '04
  5. Morning. The real inflation adjusted data is out today too, for q2 2022. Shall I dump it in here, or is there another 'real hp's' thread?
  6. Still the same old story, or it was in Apr '22 when you dig into it by property type too:
  7. Updated with latest HMLR data from June (showing Apr '22 data) inc' neighbouring Wakefield for ref
  8. Well, yes, partly my point. I dont think most of them do, I was trying to make the point of questioning/brainstorming the narrative around the 'more claims than there is Gold' statement. I'm guessing then you agree...? Some yes, not all. Infact it could even be 'most' not 'some' I don't know how this breaks down at all, id love to know. For example in percentage terms 50% have, lets say, 'no claims' and 50% have a claims. Its split in terms of % market participants but those 'with' could have a claim on more Gold in dollar or weight terms than those than don't. The reverse could also be true.... Well if everyone with a claim, or the option but not the obligation did infact opt for assignment. They might do this as they have an in the money position but are unable to buy physical gold elsewhere. They might even do this with an out the money position if they are that bullish on the future price of gold and were again unable to source physical from elsewhere. Only a small number of contracts physically settle into delivery of bars into COMEX vaults but the market is nonetheless tightly linked to physical markets through a very active Exchange for Physical (EFP) market. The Chinese market (SGE & SHFE) is the largest purely physical spot exchange in the world is the Shanghai Gold Exchange Source Apologises if this has been posted before, this gold thread is so large now, I would know how to get back to 2020 when this was published lol. Physical versus Synthetic Gold: Know Your Gold Exposure: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/education/education-physical-versus-synthetic-gold-know-your-gold-exposure.pdf *written by spglobal who... suprise...have a Gold index themselves, however its interesting reading in my opinion. Maybe ill post it in the gold and silver forums lower down that dont get much use so its forward facing. As there are some interesting points: Gold ETPs are required to hold gold assets in accordance with the number of shares they issue, however, in some instances, the ETP manager is permitted to lend out the gold assigned to the ETP to other investors. This can generate income for the ETP manager, which can reduce the cost of managing the ETP, but at the same time may be at odds with the ETP investors’ preference for holding a financial instrument backed by a physical asset.
  9. NY FED posting some alarming figures below, earlier in the month. Super, base case is a 24 month recession ('22 & '23), great stuff 🙄😕 Lets hope its a case of shock to the downside, surprise on the upside, when the figures come in and so 'its not as bad as we were thinking'.
  10. It's often 'reported/talked about' that paper claims to Gold are around 100:1 So just to sound out this out, everyone goes to redeem their Gold, shock, not enough Gold.... Or, not enough physical Gold, I should add. Ok, fine. But what % of those 100 potential claimants actually wants to claim physical Gold? Id actually argue very very little... My reasoning being that traders/investors use it for a variety of reasons, hedging long positions, short term opportunities where vol allows but id say the main one is leverage in a brokerage account; as if you want to buy physical Gold you need cash. Compare that to dumping a small amount of cash into a brokerage account and trading on margin for most retail traders this is the 'better' way. Now, I say above, that very few with paper claims will want to redeem those claims and I could be right I could be wrong who knows, but the point I want to make is that its probably true, but only up to when/if we have a existential shock to the monetary system. In that scenario there will likely be a run on physical Gold as everyone rushes to cash in andddd its this I believe that will cause lazy old merry Gold to have a violent spike to the upside. So in my opinion, the start of the Gold party and subsequent bull run could be a with HUGE bang.
  11. I literally logged in just to recount this very thing after having a troubling conversation with a chap in the pub last night. Usual story: ''when the BOE pulls its finger out and gets inflation back under 2% then petrol will have fallen and so will energy and food costs; then we will all have a bit more dosh - economy will pick up...'' I did my, bemused should I / shouldn't I tell him face. If Brent peaks now at $130 AND STAYS at $130 for a whole year...the level of YoY inflation next year issssssss 0. Inflation is the rate of change..... And ofcourse the same is true with dr copper and grains etc (which are all co-incidentally actually down off ATH's which is partly why im going to stick my neck out and say we could see the PPI peak out in July or could have already peaked this month meaning CPI will follow, imo.) Just how mad do you think I am? There is a prediction thread floating about somewhere...I might be brave enough to go for it!! Do you think people, when they think of inflation, think of it more like an index? Its indexed at 100 and then prices move up and back down to 100...?
  12. https://www.theblock.co/post/153294/bitfarms-gives-up-3000-btc-to-pay-down-100-million-loan-from-galaxy-digital To reduce borrowings in a rising rate environment is quite sensible. His statement here though: Lucas said the company was now "better positioned" to take advantage of possible acquisitions or expansion opportunities resulting from current market conditions. 'Expansion opportunities resulting from market conditions' hes fully expecting other miners to go bust. https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-miners-sold-their-entire-may-harvest-report From this article Also states that public miners only make up 20% of the total global hashrate...so from same article heres the all miners all exchanges flow....
  13. MARA is getting heavily shorted! (not that that is very suprising)
  14. That's the UK average, but if I dig into the data by country it even more interesting: So you can see the green line (NI) is dragging down the average but Wales is above avg. So ive made a chart from Jan 2020 its slightly clearer to see: Wales 30.9% Scotland 26.10% England 24.70% (UK avg) 23.70% NI 10.40% How the LR calc's this average I dont know, as there are obviously more transactions in England...point to be conscious off. Building costs are elevated so a new build 'has' to absorb this. Im guessing with demand that developers can cost push this onto customers. So if you are buying new builds you are probably paying more because of material hikes. OK fine. Not something I want to do as in 2 yrs if we have inflation back down at BOE stated levels of 3% youve bought the top of the housing market and PPI...? I guess the answer is your buying new and the cost of those 'new' items have increased YoY. Is that all this is? 30% YoY increase in the price of the average new build in Wales though...😲
  15. Although the thread is called 'mind the 68k gap' with the latest prices below New build £382,217 Existing £269,582 It should be updated to mind the £112,635 gap. This next chart is very telling... If you look at the % YoY chart (and ill lazily snip the LR graph to avoid fat finger errors 😁) Literally off the chart. 23.7% New Build 9.7% Existing This is one of the biggest dislocations in the UK housing market that I can see...missed by mainstream media ofcourse, as far as im aware...
  16. No no, its not related to property type or size. Its simply the number of cash property purchases and mortgage property purchases. Or to quote the LR it's 'Sales volume by funding status' Also worth noting they don't produce a data set for the UK for Sales volume by funding status. I used England. But please ignore that graph the x axis is clearly incorrect. Sowry.
  17. Sold prices from the H.M Land Registry database. ONS data is derived from that. Error. You're right @Timm the dates on the x axis repeat after Jan 21. This is obviously incorrect, please ignore. 😅 yes! And depending at the time of posting possible vino eyes..
  18. Latest data from yesterdays (22/06/22) UK HPI release. Same story as previous posts. IMHO at risk of serious correction
  19. Roger that, fwens then 😊 No no, the graph shows the price of Gold was up 1.73% YTD. The blue line you are referring to then, is the SPX (SP500), which is down 22 odd % YTD. I was drawing a comparison between the performance of Gold vs the SP500. But mainly about USDvGBP and how holding gold was a great move YTD with the move in cable.
  20. I think we might have got off on the wrong foot or you have maybe taken offence to something I have said. Although I cant see where; I assure you no offence was meant. Dave X
  21. The other 'pain' with GOLD in USD is FX moves....most people have probably done better from the cable move than increase in the price of gold... £1 on jan 1st 2022 bought $1.35 (ie £10k bought you $13500) lets say you bought $13,500 of gold $13,500 today is £11,014 (ex the +1.73% in the price of gold) I want to just isolate the FX gain on holding $13,500 of gold in Sterling terms.. So that's just over 10%! Whereas previously stated gold has only budged up 1.73% YTD. The win was the dollar not the gold. Hindsight eh
  22. Stellar YTD I wonder this myself, I think the answer is maybe a little but probably mostly not. It seems from the sentiment you're in one camp or the other. The Gold vs BTC still goes on. I don't get it myself, could have a allocation for both in a portfolio but...🤷‍♂️ Probably right if your running with a long only mandate. But discretionary traders running a long/short book with this vol could be making a killing.
  23. No, no, not me, it was just an example scenario. Absolutely, paper gold isn't gold. Have you invested in some physical gold, coins or bullion yourself?
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