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Data Dave

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  1. This was ace! I got to ask...is there any new data to drop into this for this month? pwretty pwease! 😁
  2. Yep. Its all the BOE has. They can move rates up and they can move them down. Arguably a blunt instrument with small moves. They cant do squat about the supply side. Free up ships in Shanghai, stop China's COVID policy, pffft no chance. Move grains etc out from Ukraine - not a pray. All they can do is try and kill/curb the demand side. And how do they achieve that. Talking tough! They have control of the narrative and they are using it. "if this happens we could do this" "if that happens we will action this" talk is cheap but sentiment changes options and is emotive. Will be enough to slow demand...? Million dollar question. BUT its a tightrope, hike and use extreme vernacular and it will bring about a recession. Don't talk tough enough arguably still a recession but with 10+% CPI as a side salad. The interesting thing to see is if market now price this in. No move then they dont believe the BOE will hike. Move and they think they are serious and want to get out infront of this. Also thats 1yr forward (jun'23), 2yr / 4yrs out will/could be different. Other interesting point to note is the BOE looks at the 4yr forward curve. That prices OIL at around 65 bucks a barrel. Anyway, your all on here talking about this stuff, you are ahead of the curve!
  3. Get yourself ready for whats coming, dont be someone that runs out with everyone else the day the bad news hits. Start scaling in now. Fair comment or too tin hatish? 🤐
  4. Yerp. In 'up' markets the markets love companies have levered their balance sheet to grow. Rates rise or economy slips and highly geared companies get sold off for value. We are fickle beasts.
  5. Yes you can rent out your property if for example you leave to work abroad. I have no specific knowledge with Barc but with Nationwide its called a 'permission to let'. They usually charge an extra 1% in interest however. But its not hard for NW to say yes to this. Probably less risk to them if you rent it out and continue to rent yourself somewhere abroad. I believe this request for renting has to done in writing by downloading a form and posting it in. Let us know how you get on. p.s are you surrrrre you want a new build?
  6. 😂 MSM is a business. If crash articles get more views than bullish articles they run bearish news. Views/readership means advertising monies. My view is the UK gov wants house prices to fall or growth to slow. Or more to the point it wouldnt be such a bad thing now. They are trying to combat inflation, if HP's fall then this is the wealth effect in reverse. People feel poorer and spend less and there is less demand for goods and services. Funny as this is a pivot from policy last year!! SDLT holidays etc Ref the 20% fall, could easily happen, could easily not happen. Just to throw it out there say we could scale out or zoom out and see house prices on a 300 yr graph. The period of 2009 to now was QE. They are now QT. If prices fall back to 2009 levels on a graph this would merely look like a tiny bubble, where asset prices inflated due to QE and bank rate and then reversed/crashed/popped. .....just out of interest, the longterm avg of the ratio of house prices to earnings is 5.5, in prices today thats about 165k. (av wage 30k pa) ....oh look; thats around Nov 2008 nominal prices. Shock horror....#justsayin'
  7. IMF Raises Yuan’s Weighting in SDR Basket Amid Weakness https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-15/imf-raises-yuan-s-weighting-in-sdr-currency-basket-pboc-says Paywall on most news sites for articles relating to this, bloomberg no different but its a short article and on bloomberg you can hit the player on the left handside and it will speak the article, like an audio book. (robot voice included free of charge) Although the headline reads Yuan weighting has increased, which it has, the dollar has too. The Euro, Yen and GBP have decreased! The weighting hasn't had an update since 2016, and its hardly dedollarisation if USD has had a re index bump too, but the poor old pound...are we getting smashed out of existence on the world stage?
  8. Headline reads: Demand metrics remain modestly positive while prices continue to rise New buyer enquiries edge up slightly although the picture is flatter for agreed sales New instructions generally steady over the month with available stock still scarce House price growth remains firm across all parts of the UK Source RICS Interesting is the next bit of the report though: "The April 2022 RICS UK Residential Survey results point to a modestly positive trend in new buyer demand remaining in place, alongside a generally stable picture for agreed sales. This, combined with a flat trend in fresh listings and still low stock levels, means that house prices continue to be pushed higher across all parts of the UK." So, not so bearish, but flatter than previous months, (I feel). Next bit of interest was: "contributors envisage prices rising further both in the near term and over the year ahead. On a twelve month basis, a net balance of +62% of respondents foresee prices continuing to increase, broadly in-line with last month’s figure of +65% for this series, but a little more moderate than the +78% reading posted back in February" So I read this as, well you ask estate agents what they think and ofcourse everything is rosey. 62% foresee higher prices - or put another way, 1/3 of agents think prices will fall. Interpret that how you want; but coupled with that fall from Feb of 78% id say things are decelerating and maybe even starting to lean over a bit...? Its not crashy and im trying to pick my words here, its just...flatter I guess, than in previous months. And as above, sentiment is changing amongst E.A's, for the worse.
  9. Released next week is the BOE's new book. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2022/january/bank-of-englands-new-economics-book-to-be-published
  10. Oh christ alive, Ive got one even better than that. The BOE has a new book out.....called....... Why cant we just print more money This one has to have it own thread
  11. This one I think could be better. What do you think? https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/housing-market-peak-should-buy-now/ Telegraph earlier in the week dropping some knowledge: "Buy the Peak!" Imagine this poor 'journalist' having that brief dropped on your desk. Editor: We need something to push prices north and improve sentiment Writer: No, no...no please. Editor: Im sorry, we have our bosses and they have their bosses Writer: But everyone pretty much knows we are at or around the market top...people just aren't this stupid Editor: Ok ok, I hear you, here's a pitch, maybe take this angle: Say its the peak BUT tell them to buy anyway Writer: ...thats....not even an angle... Editor: Super, on my desk by 3pm please
  12. My guess is Germany, the worlds 4th largest economy (IMF), to be in recession within...maybe 3 months, looking at the lag from '09.
  13. I agree that the FED (IMO) is behind the curve but I don't agree it has lost the fight. Its still in the fight and it could kill inflation stone dead - by significantly upping rates. Will it do it? Computer says no...
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