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Fromage Frais

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About Fromage Frais

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    Norwich, Norfolk, UK

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  1. Could well be. Issue with that is it would then leave China with a Escobar type issue... loads of cash but no place to spend it legally. Chinas power is also its weakness cheap goods, debt purchase (to enable purchase of said goods and investment/education/consumption. Pull the trigger on that and make the addicts go cold turkey and they can find alternatives, default and your power is gone without superior military to go in and foreclose. Another 5-10 years and maybe the job of filleting out the west could have gone to far but this is a bit early so i can only assume they have problems internally.
  2. Ask me in July. If pubs and hotels open early July then people will muddle through in my industry in the hope of a decent August. If not fully open or onerous covid secure rules that make hotels and accommodation unviable....then summer is pretty much cancelled. 8 million visitors and 60k plus employed in Norfolk tourism alone. Often young often low skilled and with seasonal contracts etc. With no carrot of summer then it's fulough to dole immediately for probably millions. Ominously premier inn planning for September and they most likely have contacts/lobby folk.
  3. Yep at least one is chipper at the moment. Not what i am seeing or hearing around here. I have had the first call regarding a property I made an offer on..... in February! It SSTC'd in a week but has now been back on for over 3 now. Fallen though as have a number of others that have sat SSTC from Feb/March over the lockdown. Not many reductions but a steady stream and ominously sstc's and new listings coming back on.
  4. If its infections then a good start is the low testing numbers obviously you are going to have a high infection rate as folks getting tested either have symptoms/sick or work near ill people. But all you points are valid cramming people in like sardines is profitable but a risk when something like this comes along.
  5. I think we will end up doing a Sweden ongoing even if the following waves hit. Is there many scenarios now where without a vaccine we do not push 100k deaths over the next few years. The lockdown quite possibly in hindsight will be shown as too late and futile, a costly mid execution change of plan that cost a lot but only delayed. Fingers crossed that so many people do not show symptoms and London was raging at time of lockdown that some form of immunity was reached there. Even the track and trace system has issues. Hypothetically you own a fish and chip shop on the seaside its busy but you have a 2m spaced queue and PPE etc. Do you download the app? whats the chances that every few days/weeks you are going to be asked to isolate? Will the Bluetooth understand the mitigating factors.. will you just ignore the calls and plough on etc.
  6. In hindsight there looks like two ways to manage a country through this. (assuming no vaccine for a long while) 1) Lock down right away inside and travel from outside take the hit and then re open with track and trace etc You will get deaths but over a longer period without overrunning the health service etc. = People not away from work too long and feel safe to return. 2) Do a Sweden keep things open with restrictions and measures (but to be honest still many businesses disrupted) and take the hit as long as health services not overwhelmed = People still working with the virus present so used to risk so they just plough on. Over the long term without a vaccine maybe the deaths will work out near the same just spread out over different periods. However we have gone for the hybrid shit show model the death rate of Sweden with a lockdown too late and people not feeling safe to return. I am sure the furlough scheme would have been ok in a clearly defined early lock down scenario. However if you remember when the furlough was announced it came quickly after the PM effectively destroyed the hospitality industry a few nights before..... I think it was all a rush as it should have came before or at same time.
  7. Yep and the weather is lovely. I am looking out the window and thinking hey an e bike or a piaggio wide mp3 would be nice. In the rain.... no thanks.
  8. My business is very good if we are allowed to open all aspects in July then no I think we will be down but ok. However if not allowed to open or trade with a hand or two tied behind our backs to to covid secure rules then yes. At time of posting we now know the JRs is going to change August. We still do not have confirmation of opening just may/if + R etc July. With no confirmation of rules just yet. Premier Inn for example plan for September maybe they have contacts.
  9. Yep My business is still mandated closed. If furlough was not.created I would have had to terminate everyone fair enough. If furlough ends without being legally able to open then same.... Except I have had to pay out for extra admin, bills and holiday pay I could have avoided if I bit the bullet sooner. I can only assume that hospitality will be opening as planned regardless start July.
  10. Does that include the administration/government facilities in excess of those simply for London? The cantillon effect of that and the BOE etc is massive in the capital.
  11. yep horrendous. Not going to be open those hotels or sold before the CVJRS changes (unless different for hospitality) so it looks like those folks will be gone.
  12. Sad news Aside from Airlines/football must be one of the worst Corona business models. coaches tours old customer demographic hotels buffets Thousands of jobs to be lost Some of the hotels are decent but even if you want to buy them who is going complete at the moment so fire-sale or months before being able to sell. If you are in the market for a bus there are going to be some bargains about. https://www.specialistleisuregroup.com/
  13. over 100 years old apparently. Another name injected with debt and mortgaged to the hilt. Anyone seen the film the founder? I quite enjoyed it about the guy who grew McDonalds. There is a scene where the finance guy tells him something like you are not a food business you are a property business with restaurants or words to that effect. Many of these large companies are debt pyramid schemes with a company attached.
  14. We just stating as to why there is a lag. Some folk have sale money and mortgage offers and they are happy to catch a falling knife. I agree it is going to be carnage it has to be.
  15. One way he is obviously more important. But on the other hand is he.... Brexit and Election victories delivered the loosers will be trying to force the PMs hand but he either has to stay or be sacked and backseat drive if i was in conservative hq. Really dumb thing to do and give opponents ammunition.
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