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Fromage Frais

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    Norwich, Norfolk, UK

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  1. I demand a man filling sandwich of me Margot Robbie and that lovely Algerian lady out of the mummy. One can demand what they like. The weak business are starting to drop and once we get near 3 percent if we do other will go. with more expensive finance from a near zero level and less jobs it’s going down. Unless you have better paid jobs and back to cheaper lending. Rates have a six month plus lag so we will be feeling the Jan rises now so very very early days.
  2. Still very early days. I like the quote from Redfin in the US where they are a few months ahead of us. I paraphrase .. Sellers are entering the market with the prevailing market in mind or they are listing their homes for high prices and learning about the market as they go. It is the nature of the modern mindset to say yep that's it all done.... when in reality the turn is going to possibly take years. In no way can any conclusions be drawn on way or the other, only that higher rates = bad for assets. We have created a bloated inefficient market where people have a balance sheet worth x and selling the house forces that to be revalued. They are not going to want to sell and the market is so expensive buyers cannot even afford the bills of buying and selling and renovating.... hence the Mexican standoff. Previously the government would have cut SD or another bung to add XX% and get things moving but such is the mature of stimulation you reach the point of diminishing returns. This culminated with the most disgusting boost of them all a xx% boost for those whom least needed the help during the pandemic. Any further boost will just add xx% to second homes and lifestyle purchases and won't get the bread and butter moving. That is why they are attacking holiday homes and second homes, they are trying to undo some of the problem that they have created. The real solution maybe coming down the road, recession and higher rates debt, divorce and death will be as they always are the marginal sales that will force it down. Falls to start this year MOM if not YOY if they keep rising rates > proper falls next year possible back to 2019 > then unless they print some more and cut rates > bottom out a couple of years after that.
  3. A few weak links are already starting to fall (Norfolk tourist area) so the secondary places crap hotels, yurts rented/pubs will bit the dust as it pulls back to the main places. The number of holiday lettings ballooned over covid and that bubble has pretty much popped already for some. I see in the news that holiday lettings increased 40% over covid there you go. bubble within a bubble in my area. Was thinking about pulling the trigger on a used pickup truck and even high milage ULEZ Hi-luxes are trying for 16/17/20+ K and sticking on forecourts. I have decided to wait that out out a bit as the used car prices look like falling a bit.
  4. What I see is people whom believe houses only go up, if there is a problem you ride it out and better to buy another than sell. That is why we have so little for sale and why the high interests are the law of the jungle and the answer to the problem.
  5. Thats like my local market. Quite scary really with some completions taking many months and thin volumes you may have paid a price that simply was plucked out of the air as the previous one or two sales never materialised.
  6. We have a lot of those around here quite a worrying amount. It would not surprise me to find out that blackrock/Chinese government/ Russians/mexican cartels etc etc (take your pick) have been buying the best of the best and just leaving them empty in every half decent area of the country. Back in 2016 one of my favourite houses was for sale a large family home perfect for us (3 kids). Drive passed it every other day and the old couple whom bought it never moved in its overgrown grass not cut and never lived in for all these years. Very frustrating. Cheap money imho supercharges speculation and reduces the cost of carry which encourages hoarding and severely impacts volumes and efficiency of the market.
  7. To the Nazis already my god that was fast. Your right English people are evil Racists
  8. Sadly we are addicted to cheap money and will need to go though the cycle of grief first. I still bump into folks who have ideas like the BOE will have things under control/ the fed will stop inflation before the end of the year..... how is that possible with the war and negative rates I think they said the neutral rate was in the region of 2+ % ONCE inflation was reigned in which will require higher rates than that to get ahead. On the Kubler- Ross cycle we are about to enter the anger phase. = strikes and possible riots over the summer > economy tanking. The BOE will need to stare into the abyss before they will do what's needed. We are some months from that.
  9. Apologies I was just citing facts and those facts do not support Scotland being more welcoming imho. Until you have as many immigrants and are as diverse it is illogical to imply Scotland is more moral or better. Should be easy enough to be welcoming without putting other folk down.
  10. 1). All banking places are... google Edinburgh money laundering. Yes you have large banks there and a amazing history of banking and insurance and pensions. 2) The Scottish people are also amazing arms builders with many large defence companies there. BAE Systems - 1471 South St, Glasgow G14 0XN Leonardo -2 Crewe Rd N, Edinburgh EH5 2XS Lockheed Martin - Finnieston, Glasgow Raytheon - Queensway Ind Est, Fullerton Rd, Glenrothes KY7 5PY Thales -1 Linthouse Rd, Glasgow G51 4BZ 3) Manufacturing: Yes when you where the workshop of the world a few years back the only way is down but still. With an annual output of £183 billion, the UK remains the ninth largest manufacturing nation in the world. Obviously if Scotland leaves it would be hard to replace their manufacturing but we would still be up there.
  11. I think we said something similar when we left the EU. We paid up though as it turns out we did.
  12. Hmm From what I can find.... 7-8%% or so of Scotlands population are non British nationals. 14% of Englands population are non British nationals Scotlands population is 96% white Englands +Wales population is 84% white I do not see the moral high ground when one country is twice as non British and over 10% more multicultural.
  13. Even without Scotland England would be a cultural powerhouse and important economy. You can want independence and be nice about it also 🙂
  14. Possible But also possible it will collapse under a sea of debt or the Eastern European counties having had the benefits for a while decide maybe better to not the have their immigration powers diluted under reforms. I expected EFTA back in the day and I would have thought once the UK was there ... the possibility of a free trade - area and maybe a few others would jump in from the EU. Nobody is going to want to pay the bills the EU is about to need. Russia is a magnificent country let by gangsters if I have learned anything from this shitty war is that bring a lot of non gas resources to the table. I don't disagree with you its is entirely possible that many of the regions are kept together with the threat of violence. Exactly right devolution will in any scenario result in some form of independence movement. I bet if BJ devolves power to Norfolk we would one time decide to declare independence as the folks in charge would always want more power.... hell after the Brexit the folks in Southern Norwich wanted independence from the rest of the county forgetting they are all students and public sector workers. Re referendums I think you are right there is too much that is what people wanted etc etc.
  15. I agree there. But it is bizarre do Ireland actually want NI? I think its yes in principle bot nope to the costs and potential terrorism.
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