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Fromage Frais

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    Norwich, Norfolk, UK

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  1. Rising prices beget rising prices. You make money holding even when in divorce, probate and holding out under financial stress. Everyone gets greedy and holds on for dear life. Its difficult to bridge the gap you may be a housing millionaire but those taxes and bills are expensive so stay put The risk of selling and buying another place is too huge imagine you sell and your new house falls through a few months and you are now poor. This results in very little for sale, there are always mugs with too much/un earned/outside area money and if they come along and there is only one house for sale everyone else will think thats normal... the averages go up. Volume falls and prices rise until the richest buyers pay the most given the prevailing credit environment. You then reach the point where its tapped out and the only way is down..... or credit becomes cheaper/looser or the government step in to bridge the gap (the fact they do this lets you know that in reality behind the scenes its about to drop and the donors are on the phone making demands).
  2. Question for everyone. Whats better for the economy... Scenario 1 grannie dies bungalow goes on market 400k Builder buys bungalow beating competition fixes it up whilst "living in caravan" Sells it for 650,0000 no tax paid under PRR Scenario 2 grannie dies bungalow goes on market for 400k sells for 350 New owner pays builder 200k for renovations Vat paid on invoices Builder pays tax on profits Sold after a few years and actually lives in it. Around here the most overpriced and for sale for ages properties are the "flipped" ones. It also has the side effect that builders will both pay the most and wait out the longest....and if you need one for a regular building job there is a real shortage, as why bother doing taxable work? What is best for the economy? Must be how it is because PRR relief must be a huge loss at the moment as nearly all the local builders are at it. I think thats why they wont touch it as so many builders and buyers are flippers even if they may delude themselves they are not.
  3. Utterly fake economy at the moment. Closing down again would be too expensive and reopening "fully" as in letting people go under is going to be a bit ugly also. I think this summer has caused so much stress for business owners that their mentality will be harsher now I fully expect a lot of layoffs after September. If there are more lockdowns there wont be the same embrace of furlough as so many have lost time and money on staff who jacked it in just in time so they did not have to return. Staff hired on desperation rates will be let go at the end of their 3 months as the summer will be over then and you will see a avalanche of sponsor license applications as why have a unskilled/unreliable chef for £15+ per hour when you can have a good one from x/y/z location and pay £30,000.... pay however will still be higher than pre brexit as only the skilled positions will be fillable from outside. Additionally its even more unaffordable in tourist areas now and the purge of young working people/families is in full swing and no wage rises will bridge the gap. There will be a new divide between big enough to have staff houses and sponsor license and small enough to do everything yourself.... the middle ground will now be decimated after September. Chronic staff shortages 20% inflation in chef wages for often unreliable chefs in the main. 10% plus supply inflation and sometimes delays and shortages. Many Ping Closures until 16th August Bills coming back CIBLS loans paying back Business rates coming back Vat now going up to 12.5% September end Large pub groups now asking for rents Earlier in year 1 in 10 paying in full and 25% of hospitality tenants paying something. The big one March 2022 you can get kicked out IF this last wave is the beginning of the end then most folk will realise this is the best it will get possibly for a number of years (especially accommodation) as foreign holidays come back. The best time to walk away may well be September end this year if they have managed to avoid paying suppliers/landlords and banked some grants. Even the property market as clogged up around here as 450 has become 650/750 asking and folk are saying no thanks after the stamp duty cut passed. I just see bad times ahead how can a country or entity have less money in and more going out and keep running up debts? To assume it can is just an experiment into the unknown like selling the cow for magic beans. As soon as the rates go up we are ******ed immediately.
  4. I think it has to. Average wage around here is was around 25k aside from stupid selling priced caused by the government the cost of living is not a nightmare compared to other places. However wages are now heading much higher and at this time if you are abled bodied person you should be pulling in 30k+ full time with abit of effort any experience/sex or race employers are desperate no excuses. I would think the trades will be coining it in as its v difficult to get quotes for building jobs let alone people started. I am seeing, hearing and experiencing staff shortages all over so I do not think business is going to be happy paying tax to keep workers from the workplace. As for UBI I used to be for that but having seen how furlough has turned a lot of people into drinkers sitting at home I think its better for them and us to keep immigration average wage + 25% and reduce the cost of housing. AS for the pandemic itself people and businesses did what was asked or them so many people have had the vaccine. If it then does not work I do not think the government can afford to run up any more debts... which will be way over 100% GDP if more furlough and lockdowns. All of those bills will need to be paid/inflated and from what i see is that the tax base is being eroded with a big hit due in March 2022.
  5. Going to be loads of closures just waiting for the bills to start and the evictions also in March. Plenty of businesses around here now closing a few days a week due to staff shortages and ..... night-clubs, venues and sports stadiums will start up again at a higher capacity. It will be interesting if the pro sports teams going from near empty to many thousands once the season starts can get enough security, chefs and servers in time for the season.
  6. Where is the money going to come from? Is this government just going to carry on until the money runs out and thats that like a 18 year old with their first credit card? in my sector Are rates going to come down as over the last years we have not turned over like before? Are we going to pay for furlough when so may staff did not actually return to work and the scheme may have contributed to shortages of staff > which have led to this summer for many being a situation where they cannot make as much money as they hoped. My friends dont have jobs in hospitality they work in "prestige" office based roles and they are saying they too are having staff issues even when they did not employ anyone from the EU Hand on heart it feels to me that people whom have been furloughed want a holiday from furlough. I understand it but I think we are heading for an almighty fall the places hanging on now will have been finished off by furloughing people and then more desperate places stealing their staff. The customers wont pay the prices so the end of a reduced capacity season will necessitate the shedding of "desperation" hires on higher rates. This then gets to March and its going to be terrible. I think I can see it in their eyes they are now running out of financial road, either that or the vaccines are not working or a variant away from not working.
  7. You are not joking When I visit my friends on constantia I feel like a peasant.......but on paper I am much wealthier with wages being much less there. https://www.property24.com/houses-for-sale/constantia/cape-town/western-cape/11742?sp=pt%3d6000000#110061233 Nice large detached houses in 800m2+ plots the right side of the motorway in constantia quite a few for 250-300K and taking offers. None near me in uk for more than twice the price and even then they are sub 200m2 Life is just more my cup of tea for example you get invited to dinner all the time and kids all have BBQs and parties any football match or event results in beers and food. I have never been to so many houses with good sized mini pubs in them even bungalows. I would not move there with the kids even though they would love to do so as my friends kids go to an amazing private school(s) there and the activities clubs and facilities are off the chart. Tbh non of my friends there are white either so its not just a white lifestyle hangover from the empire.
  8. Going to be loads Good attitude and keen to work with many educated with an understanding of UK culture and language as its is a former colony. Chef for example 30k and a skilled worker visa happy days. I think if it was not for corona would would be having an influx under the new rules as Aus and New Zealand are expensive. Work all year here and then go home for the winter... which is summer back home whats not to like
  9. The corrupt ex president Zuma has been sentenced/jailed He has loads of money and does not want to do the time. So folk are being encouraged, bussed in and whipped up to try and make this happen. Covid has exacerbated things also = instability. I love visiting Cape town and have a number of friends there and they are worried but its not washed up on their shores yet. It is a absolutely beautiful country with wonderful people in it. However a Zimbabwean uber driver was saying underneath the beautiful facade you never could not imagine whats going on (much more violent than his home), the stuff he sees on the road from time to time especially cash in transit robberies are akin to action films. You visit you think hey I could live here I love it...... then the power goes off due to load shedding a car alarm goes off and your laid back middle aged mates pass you a Glock, and you get that feeling one day it wont be a false alarm.
  10. I dont really get the same impression sorry. If Brexit = racism/evil then I sort of understand you way of thinking. The official conservative party position under cameron was the remain. Subsequent pitches to the Brexit voters are just a case of giving folk what they want. Its worked again and again and will continue to work until the UK public change their minds. https://diversityuk.org/britains-most-ethnically-diverse-cabinet-ever/ Not regular MPs but ministers with very powerful positions. I dont like the conservatives as they are in hock to property developers.... but I do not call them racist as that seems a joke. If someone bet me which party would have the first non white PM it would be them tbh just as they had the first two women PMS. As for austerity sometimes thats not a choice, it may feel like it is as they are running up so much debt and pumped the property market..... I have a horrible feeling we will going that way again soon if global rates start to rise.
  11. My road back in 2011 4 bed detached 350,000..... now 650 No pay rises aside from inflation and all imho down to interventions especially FLS which pushed down IR s and savings rates at the same time. An anti capitalist policy
  12. Well if earnings are the same at point A and a tax cut results in more spending/borrowing capacity at point B then unless large pay increases then prices should start their journey to point A again. 60% down on 5 year average suggests that prices should not need to be as hot ongoing. They (RS/BJ) have really clogged up this market now another step in is going to be required now. It never tallied with me all the high volume of sales, around here I have only seen a few houses where i thought hmm I like that house same its worth 600 and selling for 900. Most of the time its a case of sfa for sale.
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