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  2. Asking for a citation is debating technique. For example, Cathy Newman's technique is to take a reply and twist (under the guise of summerising it) it into something more inflammatory and moving to the next question before the interviewee can correct her - although Peterson wouldnt let her get away with it. Asking for a citation for something that wont have been academically assesed is much in the same vein, and will result in posts, quotes argument and discussion....which might explain why 'journos' use such things.
  3. The difference is that the 75 year old guy pushed to the ground by police was captured on video. St Louis is a dump infested with crime, guns and gangs, people get shot there all the time.
  4. I know 2 people in the BBC news. Both public schooled. Both young Tories. The links between the Tories and the Beeb News are well established. It's been fully pro-Tory for at least a decade and a half. No idea why people think the Beeb News is some liberal crusty leftwing thing! I'm amazed how many people swallow that.
  5. We may have only had true automation for a short time, but a printing press superseding handwriting or a robot building cars a person used to build are just continuations of a process going right back to stone tools and the wheel. We have had "things that we discover to make one person be able to do more" since we evolved. Whilst my assertion that automation won't cause us to run out of work is indeed an opinion, it's one based on thousands of years of evidence and not just decades or centuries. The fundamental economic principles that I derive this assertion from are that - Resources are limited - Human wants are unlimited (or at least far in excess of the resources) As a result, whenever a process is improved to deliver more for less resource, human wants immediately replenish the want for what's now easier to produce with a new want. It's why in the 1950s everyone thought we'd be working just 3 days a week - if we only wanted what people had in the 1950s we could do that, but we (collectively) want more. I'm not saying it's a good thing - just that it is demonstrably the case that we were NOT "struggling to survive" in the 1950s, yet continue to work just as hard now to get more. My opinion would change if we got to a point where - Resources are totally unlimited (i.e. we have for all practical purposes infinite free energy and infinite free space and materials) - Humans suddenly decide they have got enough, thanks It's fanciful to imagine a point in the near future of unlimited resource (though not impossible in your "indefinite" timeline of course). Based upon how greedy many billionaires are it seems to me equally fanciful to imagine that the majority of humans will suddenly decide their 2 bed flat, ASDA ham sandwiches and 1 week in Spain a year represents a peak of living not worth trying to improve upon. But agreed, it's my opinion.
  6. Utterly ridiculous. You forget how old I am. We had far better politicians when they were held to account more and when the questions were much much tougher. You forget Paxman asking the same question dozens and dozens of times. I've seen far worse historic grilling than they get now. The biggest single change in this country was in 1989 when they let TV cameras into the House. From that point we've become more American, and the "non-answer" has become political stock. The reason our politicians look bad is because most are. Has nothing to do with the questions. Trump being able to pick and choose what he bothers to answer (often just making up his own press conferences on the spot) IS NOT democracy working well. We're not quite there, but we have basically got an old Etonian wearing Trump fancy dress running the country. Anyone really think that'll end well?
  7. Admissions lag by 1-2 weeks (takes time to get seriously ill and report data) + you need around a week to establish trend due to data being noisy. Based on the latest data I would put R around 0.9-0.95 2-3 weeks ago. Taking into account that the rules were relaxed further and the Cummings effect I think it is possible that R is slightly above 1 now.
  8. It's definitely NOT seamless. At an individual level a person may never recover from the loss of their job. At economy-wide level though the transition passes because people retrain or train as different things in the first place, hence my continuing point that automation does not cause LONG TERM unemployment. That is not to say there is no short and medium term impact of it. It's not losing blacksmiths that causes demand for mechanics - it's a correlation not a causation. The underlying cause of both was a transition from horses to cars for transport. Same effect is currently being observed in physical stores closing whilst online shopping increases etc
  9. Cummings really knows how to run his government with the jackboot. Thankfully after Brexshit we managed to purge all these unelected elites telling the little proles what to do.
  10. The BBC obviously makes a journalistic decision as to what to cover and what not to and what stories to highlght and what to hide away in the depths of their site. They don't put citations or articles out saying why x story is given blanket coverage but y is ignored or relegated to somewhere 99% of people viewing their homepage won't see it. For example they do have a headline article on their UK homepage today about a police officer in Buffalo New York charged with shoving a 75 year old man to the ground. Its in the top 3 stories right at the top of the homepage - next to their main article about our protests and one about what new films out you should watch at home. Terrible case and appalling incident of course - but headline news for the UK website? https://www.bbc.co.uk/ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52952237 Three Afghan refugees killed and four badly injured/burned due to the actions of Iranian police by contrast is just a minor news story in their Asia news section - cos we wouldn't want to upset the Iranian police would we! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52949429 And when a 77 year old retired black police chief was gunned down by members of a rioting mob last week while defending his friends shop and left to die on the sidewalk in St Louis there was zero BBC coverage in the UK. Or the black police officer gunned down and killed in Oakland California last weekend in a drive by shooting during a riot while he was on duty - no coverage either! And they are both dead unlike the case above who is still alive. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.stltoday.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/st-louis-police-release-pawn-shop-surveillance-video-in-hunt-for-killer-of-retired-police/article_5d20c3ee-3234-5647-ac18-24d04e834cb7.amp.htmlThe Black lives matter to the BBC - but seemingly not black current and retired police officers gunned down by rioting mobs! Nor Afghan refugees dying due to the actions of Iranian police. Now if the 75 year old in Buffalo had died I agree it might warrant more coverage by the BBC than those other cases - but they haven't! Someone made that editorial choice - I can't possibly imagine why?
  11. Bridge lenders wre mainly specialised finance companies. They dont tend to be banks, as commercial property lending is very risk. The money tends to be raised as bonds before lending. I mentioned commercial briding as that's the nestest match to io btl, which is non amortizsing lending, something regulated banks should not touch. It's very expensive and painful to get.
  12. That's very much an opinion rather than a fact. We've only had a relatively short period of time of automation, it's not at all definite that a process that helped get us out of struggling to survive is useful indefinitely. Which in the short to medium term reduces the range of jobs available, so less chance of finding one that best suits you, and in the longer term constantly relies on something new turning up - that that's happened for a couple of hundred years is no guarantee that it's a universal eternal law.
  13. It will crash the wages of middle class jobs, now the the whole of the world will be able to apply to work here fully educated by their own country, no university debt to repay......the low paying jobs will be left for us to do.....tables turned.
  14. You don't need to know the total to be able to make a reasonable estimate of it. Simply put - more people coming in to hospital with it, R probably >1, fewer people probably <1.
  15. I do care what the press asks because if they're constantly out to trip people up and make them look bad it's no wonder they don't get straight answers (and being sycophantic isn't any better). That's not trying to get to the bottom of real issues. Unfortunately they're cheered on by brainless mobs who just want to see people they don't like being made to look bad. So we end up with a vicsious circle of ever worse politicians and ever worse journalists.
  16. That’s what happens when you decide to literally kill off your support base.
  17. I'm amazed we're still leading tbh! Imagine if the last decade had been on Labour's watch. They got elected promising to eradicate the debt and then proceeded to sharply work toward tripling it!
  18. So there is no citation for the embargo and the original claim is a falsehood. Thank you.
  19. If they stretched themselves to the limit, which seems common nowadays, then they are gambling that their future will be the same or better than their current financial situation. As you correctly say, it's worked out well for so many people in the past. Again though this assumes the future remains similar to the present. To the uncritical eye a 25 year mortgage seems risk free and a way to 'get on with their lives', but to my mind just because it is common it doesn't mean it is right.
  20. I am occasionally exposed to the reporting that happens in the Republic of Ireland. It is refreshing to see journalist and people in general being supportive of their government and country. The majority of the UK journalist reporting appears extremely divisive. The UK reporting appears designed to influence the sheeple and not just to inform them. Of course, Ireland hasn't had a government for over 4 months - https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0605/1145777-government-formation/ I remember finding this website 13 years ago. I was quite naïve back then. I would post links to media articles and always found the comments here were far more informative than the articles. Has this website lost that ability to inform? There are several, very active members who are obviously pushing their own personal agenda while mobbing and decrying the opinions of other members. Maybe it was always so, but now I am less naïve. However, I do wonder did Brexit polarize the HPC community as it did the rest of the country. The discussions certainly seem far more politicised than I remember.
  21. Very true and has been that way since I was a child. I remember a very long time ago talking to someone in marketing about supermarkets and their nefarious ways to control peoples' spending patterns. One of the biggest wheezes on the bread front was to make up up for their use of steam ovens, which emit almost none of that lovely fresh bread smell, they pump 'bread' scents into the air around the bakery sections. These come in a liquid form like a perfume and having personally smelled one, its amazing they really do smell of fresh bread. All of which of course is about the bottom line, these smells are hardwired into out brains and encourages people to buy more. I still love the smell of fresh bread, but can I tell the difference between real and fake?
  22. When the government is operating under the constraint that it needs to implement a negative-sum project because it's the will of the people, what do you expect?
  23. Today
  24. nearly all supermarket bread is frozen part baked stuff they shove in an oven instore.
  25. indeed neither parties would do this in the UK, Corbyn would have stolen the money from the usual targets to spend on his cronies. No one in politics is really interested in science and progress in this country, just settling scores.
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  • 390 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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