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House Price Crash Forum


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About regprentice

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  1. I'd heard of Zillow before, the American equivalent of zoopla, but hadn't realised the company has actually started buying properties to flip themselves. So far their 'property flipping arm' has run at a loss but still managed to raise $1/2 Bn in funding - “There’s almost an arms race to get the most inventory possible,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president of market economics at Auction.com, who described the state of the iBuyer market as “almost frenzied.” “It’s less about making money off that inventory, at least initially, and more about who can get the most inventory the fastest.” Another ,final?, Inflation of the bubble. https://www.vice.com/en/article/93ymxz/zillow-other-tech-firms-are-in-an-arms-race-to-buy-up-american-homes
  2. According to this article in 2011 surveys showed that 40 percent of SNP voters were opposed to independence. Last year the SNP (Ross Colquhoun) said they believe that 40% of Scottish labour voters were pro independence. It's not nearly as cut and dried as the SNP Vs everyone else. The last 7 polls have put a yes vote in the referendum as low as 39% but every poll put the vote under 48%. So the SNP can command a majority in the Scottish parliament last week (only one seat short of an overall majority) yet support for a referendum in the same week is only at 39-45% and the SNP themselves think 40% of those who support independence are labour voters.
  3. It's also irrational to assume all SNP voters want independence. They saw their highest ever return after the last referendum because people felt it was 'safe' to vote SNP now the issue of independence had been put to bed. Theres a bit of a clash with the SNPs appeal, to some people they are nationalists who will free Scotland from the union, but to others they are 'proper' socialists who've achieved a successful long term socialist left leaning government in a way Corbyn could only dream of. You don't have to believe both of those positions are positive to want to vote SNP. There is a also vociferous hate towards the English parties in Scotland and the SNP don't have an indigenous rival. In particular there are still people who despise the conservatives for the poll tax.
  4. The implication in your earlier post was that prices would fall as the scotgov would excersise some control over migration. It looks to me like they want to turn the taps on full and increase immigration significantly and that's going to put upward pressure on prices.
  5. They've no intention to control their border. They've criticised the new post brexit immigration rules as being too strict ------ From https://www.gov.scot/publications/migration-helping-scotland-prosper/pages/6/ The current UK immigration system does not reflect the values and principles that the Scottish Government has identified. The first discussion paper set out five areas where the UK Government should revise its policy: Reintroduce the post-study work visa recommended by the Smith Commission; End the net migration target; End the immigration skills charge; Give the Scottish Government a greater say in the Scotland Shortage Occupation List; and Extend and protect rights in family migration. The net migration target ... is practically undeliverable, but if it were achieved would be deeply damaging to all of the UK and to Scotland in particular.
  6. I think the 60% of your salary comment was a prediction about income tax,not a comment on salary differences between England and Scotland. I already pay £2.5k a year more net in tax than I would if I lived in England. Yet I'm typically getting worse services (particularly in education for my 2 kids which I think is generally accepted). The SNP have a socialist agenda that's going to require taxes to increase. Today spending in Scotland is 20% higher than it is in England. To fund this Scots receive an additional £2k per head from England a year compared to citizens in England, and higher taxes in Scotland already generate £750Mn a year by charging middle earners and up more than they'd pay if they were in England Imho the Scottish finances are pulling apart at the seams as it is, separating from the UK with an aspiration to spend more is going to mean significant tax increases. The taxpayers alliance predicted this would result in tax increases of up to 46%. Walking away from the debt isn't going to happen. You'd be looking at sanctions from your biggest trading partner (Ruk) and I don't believe the EU would accept you under those conditions.
  7. I've worked on government projects that have included website and letter elements. I'd started with what I'd thought was a logical draft of a Web page but the service design and communication design teams get involved, they mangle that completely. They tend to use user focus groups, generally no more than 4 or 6 people, to feedback the web pages. And then every outlandish idea gets included. At the end of testing a few users will drop out so the 3 people left make very big decisions for the whole country. Generally they'll say something, anything, so they are an active participant so they get the £50 or whatever they are getting for joining the focus group. I've seen individual pages out of a flow of 40 presented to users, so they've no idea what's been asked or what's in other pages, I've seen people test complex pages with no explanation of what's being asked so thy don't really understand the questions etc. The biggest problem for me was the constant need to space out things and introduce 'speedbumps' in the web pages. If they could they would have you type in your forename, middle name and last name on 3 separate Web pages because its 'clearer' and 'keeps the user focussed'.... But oh no... Some users have forgotten what they are doing by the time they get to the third page and don't enter their surname. Time for more user testing......
  8. HMRC are speaking to UK based exchanges Coinbase, eToro and CEX.IO now and coinbase have already provided logs late last year for 'customers with a U.K. address who received more than £5,000 worth of crypto assets in their Coinbase account during the tax year of 2019/20.' They said similar things about VPN operators - encrypted connections, no logs kept, outside legal jurisdiction etc but now most vpn providers have been found to have provided unencrypted logs to their local law enforcement. I'm also thinking of all those offshore personal loan companies, 'pay youself from the Isle of man and save 90% on your tax bill', that have stitched up their customers and disappeared either with customers cash, or having wound themselves up after handing every scrap of paper over to HMRC - leaving thousands of customers with 100k+ tax bills Tax evasion doesn't have a legal time limit for prosecution so HMRC will just slowly keep putting the picture together, exchanges which comply with their local tax authorities and share info with hmrc, the other side of your trade who either declares tax properly or who gets caught out and gives you up, and ultimately the eventual decryption of the blockchain. Even if that's 30 years away you won't avoid the tax bill.
  9. Came here to comment on the John Lewis closure. Must be on the card for M&S as well. My mum and gran worked all their lives in M&S and they've never believed for a second markies could shut, that would be a seismic shift for older aberdonians like them.
  10. Surprised there is no mention of this being retrospective, as changing the terms strike me as a clear admission that the previous terms were disguised employment under ir35 Also the court held that staff should have been paid the full time they were logged in available for work, but the new terms only pay while you've been allocated a fare to collect. I think there's still some milage in this before it's done.
  11. Hotel chocolat? They are like a lot of resteraunts used to be, pizza express and the like, drip feeding voucher and codes to their customers on a regular basis. Everyone thinks they are too expensive, but everyone thinks they are 'getting a deal' by using a code or buying a bundle. Thorntons have cheapened thselves by doing big boxes of chocolates to supermarkets for a fiver.
  12. It's a very different mortgage market in the USA. People tend not to remortgage or move their business, they stick with their original mortgage for the full term at a fixed rate. 3% fixed for 35 years is still a stunning mortgage. Gordon Brown tried to encourage similar products here and I remember having a 25 year fixed mortgage at 6% circa 2004ish.
  13. Not sure if they ever electrified the North East train line. I used to travel from London to Aberdeen by train in the early 2000s and the last part of the journey was easily the longest as they decoupled the electric engine in Edinburgh and swapped it for a diesel engine. It was easily faster to drive than take the train in those days. Today the Scotrail website says Edinburgh to Aberdeen is an avg 3hrs 7 minutes, and the fastest train is 2 hrs 17 mins. I can usually drive the 127 miles from my house to my parents in Cove in 2 hours, so the trains still pretty slow. That's also nuts when you think you can get to London in 4 1/2 hours.
  14. Could be further than that. I recall working in Aberdeen with someone who commuted from Dundee on a daily basis. Now I'm in Edinburgh I work with people who commute daily from people travelling from as far away as paisley and some people who commute from the lake district and stay 3 nights in a travelodge. The North East is a bit barren for families, better to live in the central belt and commute 3 days a week.
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