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About regprentice

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  1. My observation, as someone who isn't particularly political, is that Starmers been a complete non-entity during this crisis. I know he's usually regarded as concisely beating Boris at PMQs, but outside that I can't recall a single speech, soundbite, or picture of Starmer doing anything. To the majority of the population I don't think he registers at all.
  2. ONS showed unemployment at the end of March as being 3.9% with that being 1.348mn people so I would call that the 'current figure' ie the number before the spike in unemployment. (the total figure is a rolling 12 month avg, the percentage is actual, both are seasonally adjusted) So my prediction of a 4.5mn figure earlier in the thread would put unemployment at 13%...which is higher than any time on that ons sample going back to 1970.... But... Its not much higher than unemployment in mid April 1984 which was 11.9% (3.3mn people at that time) Looking at the latest graph for the USA though it doesn't look unrealistic... Unemployment there has spiked from around 4% to 14.7%. In the UK an unemployment percentage of 14.7% would give you roughly 5.08Mn unemployed ONS publishes the unemployment stats for the quarter April to June on the 15th of this month... Though we will probably have to wait for the furlough wind down to start seeing a 'real' unemployed number.
  3. We may just be a few days behind them. A friend of mine, whose family immigrated here from India, has stopped her teenage kids going out at night and has been posting on Facebook that she fears for their lives from the Manchester police. This was last week so before the riots really kicked off. There are already pockets of people who are scared ane nervous, there are already large demonstrations for them to gather at, and the police are already getting a bit excited with their riot squads (headlines today about breaking up an illegal rave with riot police) so the ingredients are there IMHO.
  4. I agree with that assumption (that wave 2 won't trigger a lockdown... In england anyway) however I wouldn't be surprised if Scotland or Wales did go onto have a 2nd, or maybe even a 3rd lockdown. I can see that opening up a gulf between England and the other countries in the Union. England seems to be balancing London, the North and the South which all seem to be behaving differently... But Scotland and Wales seem to be much more homogenous.
  5. None of the things in bold can be done by a furloughed member of staff under the furlough rules.
  6. How long is a v shaped recession. I'd a presentation at work a few weeks ago that stated that, excluding the great depression, the average recession lasts 11 months. V shaped implies a short sharp shock to me, but you need two consecutive nagative quarters to have a recession so I would suggest a v shaped recession is 2, maybe 3, negative quarters. It doesn't seem realistic to have growth again by Xmas.
  7. Presumably you have the choice of the best staff at your competitors to chose from as well... assuming they are local to you. Some industries seem to be like that, by the time you hit middle age you've worked for most companies in the sector and know at least 75% of people in your area doing that work. Then it's easy to pick and chose your staff. My dad worked in double glazing, never in the same job more than 2 years, knew everyone. From conversations I've had garage mechanics seem to be the same.
  8. I think the implication in the original post by Greg was that staff should work for the employer in any way they can, even bending the rules a bit, when on furlough to show willing so they were as likely to keep their job as possible when things go back to normal.
  9. The assertion in the post I quoted was that HPs would rise as a result of, up to, 3 million Hong Kong residents potentially coming to the UK because China is clamping down on the 'western freedoms' we left them with when we left Hong Kong in 1997. Would you agree that an influx of 3mn people would go some way to prop up house prices. For this to NOT happen China has to back down and repeal a law its currently putting on the statute books. Doesn't seem likely. From TPTBs perspective this is brilliant, we can close the gates to Europe, take In 3Mm HKers instead, and suddenly you've got a growing population which equals more productivity, house prices on the increase again, and perhaps that Chinese work ethic will rub off on the UK's chavs and neds when they are competing for work with people for whom the UK minimum wage and UK working conditions are like dying and going to heaven.
  10. Finance is considered non revenue generating. Should I drop in once a week and do the payroll for nothing? One person's 'little but of support' or 'general engagement' is another persons bullying and coercion.
  11. This is completely the wrong approach to this problem. I believe that war with either China or Russia is inevitable in my lifetime. Being soft with China now is a mistake.
  12. Will be interesting to see what Aberdeen does after already seeing falls of around 30% over the last few years. If the rest of the country crashes will Aberdeen follow or has it already hit the bottom.
  13. The more I think about it the more I'm struggling to understand why JSA and the state pension differ. I I can't see a UBI but I can see jsa doubling to bring it into line with the state pension. And IMHO the furlough should have been that amount. Is there a chart showing the furlough amounts paid in different countries. I know the USA paid a si gle amount of $1200 which they claw back in taxes next year.
  14. Your friend will almost certainly be 'self employed' in a job such as yodel driver. https://yodelopportunities.co.uk/drivers/self-employed-drivers/ Thats all part of the slow erosion of employees rights. I think that's an important factor for the furlough schemes, for the unemployment numbers, and for the kind of 'new' self employed piecemeal jobs that's seem to be coming online to replace the 'old' jobs. The employment stats are useless, we need to know how many people have more than one job, how many people are downgrading their rights as they move from job to job. Most people have those things if they are working from home already. I'm not sure the Majority of people have the space to start setting up an office at home, I certainly don't and I've been pissed off about all the boomers at work boasting about their family rooms, office room, man cave, guest rooms etc.
  15. Depends where you are. I'm in Scotland, I. Don't believe costa/Starbucks type shops are open here yet.
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