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About scottbeard

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  1. People who voted Leave did so for a myriad of different reasons, including: we'll be better economically, we'll have more sovereign control, we'll have lower immigration, "the EU is doomed anyway so best be first out", as a protest vote ["I don't like David Cameron/the system"] and even in one case of someone I know "I'm a bit of an anarchist so I thought it might mix things up a bit". To say people voted for X and will get Y ergo it's a failure I think oversimplifies it. That's not to say you're wrong about the eventual outcome - I voted Remain so in that sense I'm sort of with you. I just don't want to judge it before it happens. If the EU implodes it likely won't be BECAUSE of Brexit, but the "the EU is doomed anyway so best be first out" lot will turn out to be correct.
  2. I guess come 2027 we will find out whether @markyh's comment is true. You can't say BTC is a bad 10 year investment because it's lower in 2020 than 2017 - that's like calling a football match result mid way through the first half!
  3. Lots of coffee shops are now - for takeaway
  4. Lol sounds like you very much fall into the "Remoaner" camp that crouch was describing! I voted Remain, because I *thought* that would be best for the UK. But I'll be an old man before history will be able to judge its full ramifications. Suggesting that you can deem it a failure whilst we're still not out of the transitional period is farcical.
  5. It's strange that the actual payment (80% of wages up to £2,500pm) isn't an option in your poll. I think to be honest it was roughly OK.
  6. Well said No one saw COVID coming. No one knows what’s coming next. We all chipped in our best guesses in 2016- but we won’t know who was right until 2036 at least
  7. I agree with this, and would add (for people in the West) that there will also be a gradual "levelling out" of living standards between West and East over the next 100-200 years, so that the discrepancy between rich Europe/US and poor India/China levels off a lot more. Given all the factors you name above also affect them, the total pie may shrink - but for the West it's a double whammy as we end up with the East gaining a bigger share too. So whereas today you might have a resource pie of 1,000 shared 800 West 200 East, in 50 years time it might only be 900 total, shared 500 West 300 East. So the East sees a big rise in living standards despite all of the above, whilst the West sees a big fall.
  8. Really? So you think the UK would be exactly the same today if: - the referendum had come back 52:48 for Remain - Jeremy Corybn had won in December 2019 and not Boris Johnson OK, I guess you're entitled to your opinion...
  9. Quite. And the main reason Labour lost the 2010 election was the 2007/8 financial crisis, which wasn't even really directly their fault (it happened "on their watch", but it affected most Western countries). It's entirely possibly that the ramifications of the economic fallout of this COVID19 crisis (including furloughing) will cost the Tories the 2024 election. However, the idea that this is somehow "baked in" already with nearly the full term of parliament's worth of events yet to unfold is silly. In February Boris Johnson would have been a firm favourite to win the 2024 election. By March it was 50/50 whether he would even live to see the end of the week. Life just isn't predictable enough to be certain about things 5 years ahead of time.
  10. If you scroll waaay up this thread you will see that I too questioned whether something more useable & better will come along. Then I decided even if it does, I can make a bit of money off BTC in the meantime. All that matters is what the price is when you buy, and what the price is when you sell. What it does thereafter is irrelevant.
  11. You're just muddling arguments. Your last post said: So I'm responding to your contention "high volatility in an asset class means that asset class can't be considered a serious investment". That contention is false, but equities have high volatility yet are considered a "serious investment" by just about everyone on Earth. How equities in any particular compare to their all-time high as of today (an arbitrary date) doesn' impact whether or not equities as an asset class are a "serious investment". Now you have raised a new argument - "I have no idea what BTC represents". We can have a brand new discussion on that topic if you like. But it's not related to your volatility argument.
  12. Yeah, much too wild to be a 'serious' investment. I mean real, serious investments like blue chip DOW JONES shares are much more stable...oh no wait hold on, here's a snapshot of today (27 May 2020) DOW JONES companies and it seems Boeing is up 7.8% whilst Cisco Systems are down 4.7%....?
  13. Who is wealthier: Person 1 whose house has a huge stinking pile of pig bones on their front lawn that grows larger every week Person 2 whose house does not, because the bin men take them all to the dump By suggesting the bin men don't create wealth you're trying to tell me that the two people are equally wealthy. Yet that can't be so, can it, because we'd all rather be Person 2?
  14. How bizarre - yes they do. Because wealth is not just represented by material goods, but by the impact of services too. For example - a dentist fixing someone's broken tooth - a cleaner cleaning someone's house - a hairdresser cutting someone's hair - a mechanic mending someone's car All help a person, just in the same way as your pig farmer example breeding a pig to provide bacon for their dinner. They all create wealth, because the recipient of the service is better off at the end of the day than they were at the start of the day. Manufacturing leaves you wealthier because you own an extra object (until it is used up). Agriculture leaves you wealthier because you own some extra food (until you've eaten it). Services leave you wealthier because you have beneftted from whatever the service provides (until the effect wears off).
  15. Again I agree with you on what’s happened in the past, but again I’m unconvinced you can scale this up to say 200 years from now all 7 BillIon people will be living like a rich westerner does today. It seems more likely the oil will run out and we all end up back in the Stone Age. The amount of resources it takes to move from paddy field to slave driven factory worker is very small compared to what it takes to become a middle class German or American.
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