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About scottbeard

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    HPC Guru

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  1. The thing is, in just about every decade you could reel off a list of things that make it feel "the end is near"....we were going to be wiped out by a Cold War nuclear winter....the US had a crooked President in Nixon...the oil was going to run out...etc etc If anything, my experience on Earth in the last 40 years suggests to me that: - There are both good eggs and bad eggs (Nixon/Trump vs Obama etc) - Humans only tend to veer away from the edge when they can see over the precipice What do I mean by the latter? Well we waited right until RBS is about to go bust before we steppe
  2. Erm - well LEGAL travellers have these things scanned: not so much people arriving in little boats or hidden in lorries. Also - and not sure here - what about the NI/Ireland border, I thought at least up to December that wasn’t a passport scan job?
  3. Honestly I think THESE are the dark times - a year into COVID, and just after Brexit. But hugging your children is definitely to be savoured at all times, good and bad.
  4. Only partially...I think Brexit is a big mistake, and will be negative overall for Britain: but it's hardly the end of "good times"; a mixture of good and bad things will continue, as usual. The union will probably end - but that's inevitable: Scotland's independence is only a matter of time. COVID will blow over - despite these lockdown it's not the "end of freedom" any more than WW2 curfews were a permanent end of freedom. War/COVID ends, rules change back. Alas I also don't think it's the end of people accepting the actions of the elite - I don't see any sign of that at all?
  5. True - but fortunate, because you sold thinking the market was overvalued, but it actually fell due to COVID (which you didn't predict) and not because it was overvalued. A study I often used to quote in training courses is that 80% of investment fund managers who have a good year do so mainly due to luck, and only 20% due to skill. That's one reason past performance is not a guide to the future. People reading just need to realise that ***IF*** you make the right calls, then of course you can make lots of money, but the there are significant risks associated with those courses of a
  6. How did you get burnt if I may ask, and which "last crash"? Normally you only get burnt selling after a crash; as well as selling you can ride it out...
  7. Don't forget that Cash carries a significant inflation risk not to be ignored. Also, the US stock market and UK stock market are two completely different animals. The US might be in a bubble but the UK not, for example. If you do decided to "SELL SELL SELL" you also need to think about when to buy again, and what to buy again. Finally, if you're investing for the long term consider whether going 100% cash as a tactical decision is really sensible. People who sold their shares in 2007 and bought them back in 2009 did nicely. People who sold houses in 2005 did not. It's a big
  8. You seem equally certain of the opposite though, it has to be said...your posts don't say "there is a risk of XXX", you just say "SELL NOW!!!"
  9. Yes it's gambling. It's taking a view that something will happen, that may or may not happen. That's a gamble. But that's hardly the same as going to a casino - to win $100,000 from a $3,000 on one spin in a casino you'd need to put all your money on a single number: 36:1 odds. Very unlikely. The chance of Bitcoin going to $100,000 has surely got to be better than 36:1 given it's already hit $40,000 recently...
  10. In Arpeggio's case he is working very hard at trying to spread fear of the vaccine, without saying anything that's factually untrue, such as "the vaccine is dangerous" or "you shouldn't take it". Instead, he posts a daily stream of negativity, leading the reader to 'draw his/her own conclusions' - but it's disingenuous because it's a cherry-picked selection of bad examples and outlier cases. You could try and put people off driving their cars the same way, by constantly bombarding people with images of car crashes and breakdowns. But it wouldn't work because we all know that most ca
  11. Only by her and her doctor, though - and even then lots of people faint after injections, it's not that unusual. Meanwhile many thousands of others have taken it without collapsing (or indeed having any side effect beyond a sore arm) including a number of my friends and family.
  12. You don't suddenly become totally immune seconds after getting the jab: it does take some time for the body to build that immunity up: How quickly does the vaccine work? And how long does it last? Your immune system needs to generate a response, so generally the protection from the virus starts after about 7-10 days. The Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford vaccines both need to be given in two doses. The second dose will be given three to 12 weeks after the first (for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine) or four to 12 weeks after the first dose (for the Oxford vaccine). You will still have a good leve
  13. Yes indeed - and so they can't handle a balance of risks and benefits. For example, I'm so tired of reading posts on the BBC and Facebook etc of people going "well if they allow XXX activity then surely YYY activity is safe as well?" when in truth of course NOTHING is 'safe' where safe = 0% chance of catching COVID, it's just that the government has decided that the social and economic benefit of activity XXX is worth the risk, and of YYY it isn't. People just want to know "is it safe or isn't it?" but sadly that isn't how life is. However, I think the problem is exacerbated b
  14. But that's factually incorrect - they ARE worth $30,000 as we sit here today. That's like standing in the pouring rain, with water dripping down your cheeks, saying "I didn't think it was going to rain today, and I stand by that." Now - whether they are a good thing to BUY at $30,000 - well that's a different question. But today's market price is a matter of fact.
  15. I only own 1 Bitcoin. It doesn't matter if I did lose it. That's the whole point - I wouldn't invest money in Bitcoin I was worried about losing.
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