deerohdeer1

What the layoff thread misses is the other ways that companies have been letting people go. I know for instance people have been called by HR and told you've got go in 4 weeks but here's £x of money and you have effectively resigned not been made redundant add in the millions of people not working but not claim job seekers and the (I imagine million or so) people working a few hours a week thus not being on any unemployment report. By design it's become almost impossible to actually decipher the true working population of the UK.

Stuff is definitely starting to break. Looks like no rate cuts priced in state side till after the elections. Helps Donald no end but conversely means he will likely walk into power holding a nasty recession baby. Covid policy mixed in with chaotic fiscal and monetary policy has seemingly taken us through the looking glass. Volatility and chaos are my predictions for the medium term.

1) A house that hasn't completed is only worth what it was paid for. 2) I think the market locally has been very muddy, certainly some properties at the top end have gone for 2019 prices whilst others have gone for 2022 prices regardless of quality. I've also found new properties have come on at 2022 prices whilst ones that have sat for a year (very desirable ones that I'm looking at) have come down beneath those new prices but still can't sell. 3) I was being a bit tongue in cheek, i.e. it's unconscious bias so by definition you're going to say you don't have an unconscious bias. Forgive my naughtyness on this point. 4) I've no idea what's happening going forward, I've not even an inkling, we're regularly seeing six sigma events in US government data (which I follow closely) which is wild. We're in a very chaotic time. The jobs market is very poor for most, yet officially it's not bad and wages are rising quickly, that is the single biggest factor going forward. That and the belief in rates falling this year. If that proves to be a delusion mixed with the narrative switching. Then we could see steep falls. If the mainstream narrative is genuinely accurate then I'd follow your thesis of 5% further this year. Hope this puts us back on good terms.

Until completion you can't say that what you have seen with your property matches the indexes. And you're wrong in what I think and what actually happened. What I think is you're telling yourself that there's a plateau and using the index to prove that conclusion in this discussion. I'm just pointing out that you have no idea what that index consists of to come to it's number and that said indexes have been shown on this forum to be wrong. I'm also saying that your viewpoint has changed unconsciously as your circumstances and needs have. Proven by your response. Please note months ago I became HPC famouss for being the subject of a YouTube video as I said 'the bottom is in'. So don't confuse me as someone who claims prices are falling whatever the weather.

It's funny how unconscious bias works isn't it. Now that you're in the middle of a move, you yearn for the stability you need for it to go through. Housing indexes that have repeatedly been proven to be wrong on this very forum don't show much about the price of housing.

Imagine a world where either or the UK is well managed for the next whole 20 years. What a lovely dream to have.

Currently a dink but want to try for one this summer. Pros:- Never been particularly stressed about money More time for me and for us Loads of gym time Look young and fit for my age Able to do holidays easily Easier to save for a nice home (which ironically would be too big for a couple with a dog). Don't have to think about what we're eating for every single meal of the day. Time (essentially most of the above is time). Cons:- That nagging feeling that it would be a shame if we didn't have one knowing that time is running shortish Not having a complete family unit A source of focus for you to help grow, love, laugh and live with.

It's definitely not ucits compliant I mean neither is SPY or QQQ. 😉 It pays out monthly distribution based on the coupons it holds so current rate is above 5% the index price itself is related to the price of bonds and the amount of people in / out the fund. I'm fine with currency risk as the dollar milkshake theory sounds quite probable to me. I actually see it as a benefit being diversified from GBP to an extent. I didn't explain my thinking particularly well last night... So my thinking is essentially if recession hits fed cuts rates turns on the printer = upside to the bonds which hedges as a down side to the equities that would likely be falling. Meanwhile if can kicks down the road it's sitting there earning yield but is liquid if some good value equities present themselves. It sounded good to me when I was thinking about it in my head but now I'm not so sure. 😂

I said add to the position in the next few months, not hold for a few months. The reason to hold short duration bonds is because the only way I see fed funds rate going down is if we hit bad data in the states at which point we're not looking at 25bps cuts... With deeper cuts short end of the curve is going to react much quicker to the upside (in price not yield) compared to long end. Thus a better hedge. If yields go up then fund buys more bonds you get payout at higher rates over time but yes the index price takes a hit, is that your thinking? We see a spike in yields?

I've got cash in a savings account too but this strategy in my mind is a hedge against down side risk in equities specifically.

Just got a teenie bit of exposure to bsv as a recession hedge. Thinking the only way we see proper rate cuts is if the US runs into a nasty recession. If that happens then the value of the ETF goes up but if not you're still taking circa 5% in distribution. Thinking of growing this position over the next few months. Any traders out there have a view on the thesis?

Congratulations, keep us updated on how the transaction flows as we know in this market the rates of fall through are painful. Good luck 🍀🤞.

The key point is the right house at the right price i.e. not overpaying. As an example buying a house listed today at 650-700k for 500-525k.

You've also got to think of your lifestyle. For me, I barely drink, the fiancee is tee total (no she's never been an alcoholic just a fitness freak who doesn't like booze), how much is that saving a month? We're both homebodies that like to go out during the day, catch a show, cinema, go milling around town but the point is we're not about the living it large life and also it means that we both get a higher satisfaction and being content when we're in a nice home. We both have dirt cheap gym membership and my one vice is golf. So you do the maths in your head, how does all this affect affordability and how important is having that home based on your lifestyle.

@Pmax2020 @Speed1987 @mynamehere I'm 38... 39 this year. Household income near enough 100k between my decent pay and her not so great but worthwhile job pay. No kids (want one this year). 120k on the mortgage. Similar situation want to sell the house and move to a forever home in 2025. I'd take 250k maybe even 280k mortgage for the right house at the right price. Awful subject but you if you have a likely inheritance coming in the next 10-15 years that is worth considering when it comes to how you feel. The situation is so unfair and it's so unpredictable but ultimately you have to decide how you feel about it and how important having a place where you truly feel 'this is what I want' is to you.

Good luck in your search mate it's all a mess. I am spreading into 4 buckets at the moment, easy access savings at 4%, £500 overpayment on the mortgage, stocks (that I've only added to very sporadically the past 6 months) and premium bonds. Meta has ran up 3x for me but the rest of the portfolio is treading water doing shit, trying to rebalance is a difficult proposition, every sale I do (staying under 6k profit) to put into something like Vici (stable dividend hound) seems to get punished with another 10% gain on my remaining Meta. 🤦‍♂️

Zerohedge dissecting the the BLS jobs report:- https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/inside-most-ridiculous-jobs-report-recent-history-12-million-immigrant-jobs-added-one It seems we're truly through the looking glass when it comes to government data.

Are you still renting @mynamehere?

I mean I hope I'm 100% wrong but like @shlomo pointed out indirectly 'many plates in the air'... 420AD was half a century before the official collapse of Rome I hope we are at least that far away also.

The comments 😂 The guardian is as bad as the daily mail these days as are it's commentators. It's quite an achievement.

Very good point has Clarkey gone from 40k to 47k or 80k to 87k? Big difference in what it means to Clarkey.

Does anyone feel like we're starting to see the beginnings of collapse? Not house price collapse... Collapse collapse. I've read and listened to alot of shit about Rome and it feels like what I imagine Rome felt like circa 420ish AD.

We've had the triple threat of trolls on one thread:- Vancouver lass The smurf Stewart Is this forum now approximately 15-20% troll userbase? Cheers for your insight @clarkey I was offered an interview for the European space agency last week in Darmstadt so it's not all doom and gloom but the twice weekly linkedin pings have noticeably tailed off since Christmas and actually searching using the filter painted a very poor picture. It sounds like I may well be incorrect and most sectors are absolutely flying.

Wow, to echo @Fromage Frais trades seems to be very area specific. That said, I can understand why there is a shortage.. I think we've run into a shortage of trained lads coming out of school whilst at the same time a a bulge of 50-60 year old tradies have either drastically cut back on work or have retired (it's not easy work on the body after all). Then finally and this seems to be a massive underlying factor, the eastern European contingency are returning home because the opportunities in places like Poland are equal if not better to what they are here with an arguably better standard of living. What a mess.

Fair 😂. What's striking to me is that somehow datasets have been massaged to the extent that they no longer provide useful signalling to decision makers. Take the states, you look at their jobs reports and GDP Vs the real lived experiences that you can read all over Reddit, my prior colleagues, current colleagues, forums etc.. The divergence is frankly jaw dropping.