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House Price Crash Forum

zugzwang

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Everything posted by zugzwang

  1. The Tories Improve people that want to improve? Do me a favour! Thatcher reversed all the gains that had been won in the postwar years. Her successors (including Blair) have bankrupted this country with their demented pro-market neoliberalism.
  2. But how long is that differential going to last? Six months? A year? HtB 4.0 might postpone the crash for a minute... then what? We'll just be in a deeper hole than we are right now.
  3. Ten Houses has the means to delay the crash for a couple of years but then what? It's 2024. The national debt's now £3 trillion not £2.5 trillion. The interest on that debt is now £120bn/yr not £80bn/yr. The private sector is now £4 trillion in the hole not £3.5 trillion. Fitch has dropped the UK's credit rating to A. The real economy, as opposed to the Ponzi circle jerk, has been in recession for two years barely impacted by the additional leverage. The number of havenots is increasing exponentially. The streets are no longer safe even during the day. Burning Teslas are driving by leading processions of shoeless children scattering trash...
  4. Except for hipster artisanal cuts, meat will all be grown in a factory. No need for pasture farms.
  5. Surely, there's shome mishtake? UK food prices fell for three decades prior to the GFC. A crisis of our own making, nothing to do with EU.
  6. It's nonsensical. The banks have been able to keep their lending rates way below the rate of inflation only because of Term Funding (the £200bn TFSME, specifically) financed by QE. The drawdown period for that subsidy ended in April 2021. They are now financing their operations at market rates, plus an additional 3% to the customer. Inflation will peak at 10% this summer but fall dramatically thereafter as spending slows, unemployment rises and the economy contracts. Unless Sunak spunks off like a crazy madman again - pushing the debt interest over £100bn/yr and risking another sovereign debt downgrade - real interest rates should be back in positive territory within 12 months.
  7. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/15/1990s-recession-looms--uk-inflation-rises Britain’s hard-pressed households could feel even worse done by this week when official inflation figures show just how fast the cost of living is rising. Economists are forecasting a jump from March’s 7% to 9.1% in April. If the pundits are right, the consumer prices index will be at its highest level since 1990, when the UK was struggling with one of its worst postwar property slumps and a full-blown recession. Not that families need telling – disposable incomes across the country have been hit hard. The price of unleaded petrol may have steadied at between £1.60 and £1.70 in the past month, but energy bills and food prices are soaring across the board. James Knightley and James Smith, economists at ING, said the month-on-month rise would reflect a 54% jump in household gas and electricity bills since the beginning of April, following regulator Ofgem’s lifting of energy price cap. The Bank of England, citing rising energy costs, has forecast a rise in inflation to above 10% after the summer. “We are less sure that it will get as bad as that, but then again inflation has consistently surprised to the upside,” it said in a statement. Central bank officials are most worried by increases in wages over the past few months of about 5.4%, and the extent to which workers will demand increases in their monthly earnings to keep pace with rising inflation over the next year. This is the much-feared precursor to a wage/price spiral that could push inflation higher for years to come. Some members of the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) believe wage demands could rocket – and that employers will be forced to push up prices to recoup the higher costs of production – not just this year, but next year too, and possibly through into 2024.
  8. Industrial socialism vs rentier capitalism. There was only ever likely to be one winner... and it isn't you!
  9. And maybe this f**kwit too. 👇 https://zelo-street.blogspot.com/2022/05/lee-anderson-chat-shit-get-banged.html Go anti-woke and go broke.
  10. The entire Midlands is run down and shabby. Leicester has a very Third World feel to it. Coventry is a long delay on the M6.
  11. Meanwhile, in the part of the world that still has a productive economy, the next domino is set in motion. https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/china-ready-with-its-airbus-boeing-rival-c919-plane-completes-test-flight/ar-AAXhty9
  12. The governing ideology hasn't changed. Coercion, intimidation and threat. If only the boss class could mobilise the police to beat home workers like they did the miners...
  13. Covid-19: the failure of an American ideology. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/15/us-public-health-healthcare-covid-society David Rosner continually talks to colleagues who are distraught about the American response to the Covid-19 pandemic. “When you are in a school of public health and a public health environment, people really feel when they are failing,” said Rosner, who studies public health and social history at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health. That defeated feeling is compounded by the fact that 1 million people in the US have died from Covid-19 – the highest Covid death rate among large wealthy countries. According to public health experts, the virus’s outsized impact on the US can be attributed in part to underinvestment in long-term care, in primary care and in public health departments. As a result, some people were more vulnerable to Covid and had little connection to – or trust in – the healthcare providers who urged them to socially distance, to wear masks and to get vaccinated. It was a disconnect, they say, that was only exacerbated by misinformation – particularly by Republican leaders’ undermining of scientists’ recommendations. “This is more than just a failure of a health system,” said Rosner. “It’s a failure of an American ideology.”
  14. Thanks for the update. That's a big vote of confidence in China from the IMF.
  15. Another doomsday prophecy from the veterinarian. Everything old is new again. 😆
  16. Which policies followed by Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s? The disastrous flirtation with monetarism that put 3 1/2 million people out of work, the disastrous privatisations which cost billions to repair, the disastrous firesale of UK social housing never to be replaced, or the disastrous financialisation of the economy which culminated 30 years later in the Great Recession? The blessed Margaret didn't know the first damn thing about economics - and nor does Smoggy!
  17. Relax. Fishy Rishi will be along with another pick-me-up any day now.
  18. And alligators. My ex owns a condo in Florida. It's not uncommon to find one sunning itself on your lawn. Imagine getting a visit from this f***er?
  19. The so-called Eurodollar deposit markets (nothing to do with the Euro) were created by US corporates in the early fifties, not by the US govt. These were explicitly designed to expand the money supply in Europe, hence evade the straitjacket of Bretton Woods, by being located geographically outside the reach of the Federal Reserve. At first enthusiastic, the French in particular grew tired of having their banking system stuffed with dollars and threatened to redeem them for gold, those threats becoming more vocal after 1968 when the idea of a dollar devaluation began to take hold internationally. At that point Nixon was doing a LOT of borrowing, having to finance both an open-ended war in Vietnam (which Kennedy started) and the Apollo program (4% of GDP at one point). Faced with having to export half the contents of Fort Knox to Paris and with inflation rising he took the decision to 'temporarily' suspend convertibility and implemented a policy of price controls. This might have succeeded were it not for the reaction in the Middle East where oil producers outraged at the prospect of receiving sharply devalued dollars for their oil after receiving American promises to the contrary orchestrated a boycott. The great 1970s stagflation ensued.
  20. Until the GFC, most certainly. Indeed, they remained relatively elevated vs the base rate until the first of the Term Funding schemes arrived mid 2012 (FLS) when the need to attract deposits effectively disappeared.
  21. But more immigration requires more houses to be built otherwise you end up where we are now. Having to underwrite the cost of home ownership with public money via an alphabet soup of market defying subsidies until the country goes bankrupt.
  22. Uncontrolled immigration is the keystone of the Tories' hpi forever program. Their occupation is irrelevant, their principal function is to serve as debt mules.
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