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Everything posted by zugzwang

  1. The markets are a bovine lot. They herd together for safety but are stampeded by the merest whisper. All Sunak will want to talk about are his 'Green' credentials. Obviously, the reality of his own personal carbon footprint will be off-stage at all times i.e. the vast gymnasium/solarium/swimming pool/tennis court complex he's having built adjacent to his Grade II listed manor house.
  2. He was one of the literal handful of professional economists to call the GFC correctly. No-one at the Bank of England did.
  3. Roubini: When former Fed Chair Paul Volcker hiked rates to tackle inflation in 1980-82, the result was a severe double-dip recession in the United States and a debt crisis and lost decade for Latin America. But now that global debt ratios are almost three times higher than in the early 1970s, any anti-inflationary policy would lead to a depression, rather than a severe recession. Under these conditions, central banks will be damned if they do and damned if they don’t, and many governments will be semi-insolvent and thus unable to bail out banks, corporations, and households. The doom loop of sovereigns and banks in the eurozone after the global financial crisis will be repeated worldwide, sucking in households, corporations, and shadow banks as well. As matters stand, this slow-motion train wreck looks unavoidable. The Fed’s recent pivot from an ultra-dovish to a mostly dovish stance changes nothing. The Fed has been in a debt trap at least since December 2018, when a stock- and credit-market crash forced it to reverse its policy tightening a full year before COVID-19 struck. With inflation rising and stagflationary shocks looming, it is now even more ensnared. So, too, are the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England. The stagflation of the 1970s will soon meet the debt crises of the post-2008 period. The question is not if but when. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stagflation-debt-crisis-2020s-by-nouriel-roubini-2021-06
  4. That's it? The Big Reveal...? A worldwide conspiracy to introduce UBI? What a let down!
  5. According to that spreadsheet you double your money! Govts like 2% inflation because it allows the central bank to keep interest rates positive over the business cycle (typically).
  6. You can either fight an enemy occupier or accede to his demands. Either way involves personal sacrifice. The strikes and riots failed to discourage the French and Germany lacked the means to defend herself.
  7. The debt 'issue' didn't disappear in 2012. George Osborne used public money to subsidise an echo housing bubble in 2012. When that looked like failing the Bank of England dropped £127bn in helicopter money on the commercial lenders. Those market defying subsidies have continued to this day. As a consequence the national debt has trebled in little over a decade to £2.3tn, a post-war high.
  8. You've never understood the Weimar hyperinflation! Both intentional and effective. A debt default by the UK would be neither.
  9. Change will happen but only when it's imposed externally by our creditors. It's no longer something you can vote for.
  10. They're just inoffensive generalities. The real meat was here in 2019. You'll never be given another chance to vote for meaningful change.
  11. Swissmicros do a very good HP-16 clone for ~£100. I bought a DM42 a couple of years ago. I like it more than my HP50G. https://www.swissmicros.com/products
  12. It's hard to know which of them is more unreliable.
  13. End of FOM? How can this be true when half a million migrants are encouraged to move here every year?
  14. A contemptible act of political persecution by Uncle Sham and his dwarf Canadian stooge to subject this woman to three years of house arrest without cause or legal justitification. Free Julian Assange!
  15. It's far too late to talk about strategic threats. There are seven and a half billion people in the world, all of whom want a standard of living roughly comparable with that of Western Europe. Whether they can ever get to that stage of development is a moot point. What isn't moot is that Western Europe, the US and Japan don't have the capacity to satisfy that demand or even a fraction of it. Ultimately, that's why Chinese industrial socialism has triumphed and Western financialised capitalism is doomed to fail outright.
  16. The 2019 manifesto was entirely consistent in its aims and ambitions with the mainstream of European democratic socialism. Everything was costed. The suggestion that Corbs would bankrupt the country by borrowing £400bn to renationalise the utlity companies and the railways etc. over five years was plainly absurd - the Tories have borrowed as much in eighteen months and intend to borrow hundreds of billions more over the lifetime of this parliament propping up inefficient and insolvent private enterprises.
  17. It takes 10-14 days, typically, for the body to generate a significant antibody response to the SARS CoV 2 spike protein post vaccination.
  18. Is that a fact, Mr Ten Posts? And who are you here on behalf of? Zero Covid. It's peer-reviewed science. A practical success wherever it's been adopted. 👇 https://www.institutmolinari.org/2021/09/21/the-zero-covid-strategy-continues-to-protect-people-economies-and-freedoms-more-effectively/ Zero Covid strategy better protects health, but not only The G10 countries are far more affected by the pandemic in all aspects than the OECD countries that have opted for the Zero Covid strategy or similar, a representative benchmark of 82 million inhabitants of economically advanced democracies. The number of deaths per million inhabitants was 44 times higher in the G10 countries, which means 1.1 million too many deaths by June 30, 2021. Economic performance, civil liberties and mobility were also worse. Zero Covid strategy benefits the economy and accelerates recoveries In 2020, the countries applying the Zero Covid strategy had almost returned to normal economic activity. Their GDP was down only slightly (-1.6%) compared to 2019. Meanwhile, the decline in GDP was greater (-5%) in G10 countries that had not eradicated the virus. Zero Covid is a cost-effective economic investment with lasting positive effects. In the second quarter of 2021, the GDP of the Zero Covid countries grew compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 (+1.7%). In the countries that did not eradicate the virus, GDP decline remained significant compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 (-1%).
  19. Remind us again, Dr Hinton. How many Covid deaths have there been in New Zealand?
  20. Rich indeed from someone who'd like to see the sick, elderly and disabled euthanised by Covid-19.
  21. It's not flu. There's no evidence that SARS CoV 2 originated in China.
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