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THE FED: 0.75% RATE RISE THIS WEEK?
12345 replied to Warlord's topic in House prices and the economy
GBP up 1% since the announcement - Reckon the markets think this move will force the BoE to move higher than 0.25%? What else might it be? -
Not at all, but if you compare 7 year periods between the UK and other major European countries going back 50 years you’lol see periods where the UK was ahead and times when they’re behind, it’s normal & correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causation.
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Come on, it's a lot better once you adjust for the exchange rate, a quick look at the bars on the graph shows that. Also, once you adjust for PPP, I wouldn't say most/any of the countries at the upper-end of this graph are comparable (all have either substantially lower living standards or populations). You have to go as far as Italy/US before you do, and at 33/34%, that's only around 5% more than the UK over a 7 year period. With France/Germany that drops to 3%.
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Not here to defend, but perhaps to play devils advocate… 2021 & 2022 growth is pretty decent, and if the last 6 months have shown, things can change v quickly, so would take 2023 with a large pinch of salt (either way!). Re: the second chart, GBP:USD is as much a factor as anything else given it’s dropped 15-20% over 2015-22 whereas the Euro has been broadly stable over the same period…
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Halifax HPI (Mar '22) +11% YoY +1.4% MoM
12345 replied to Data Dave's topic in House prices and the economy
Interesting in terms of what ‘granted’ actually means, but if it’s as I imagine and they are ‘granted’ at the point of completion, I’d expect that these figures are reflecting offers that were accepted around three months ago… -
House prices won't go much higher - this is the top
12345 replied to henry the king's topic in House prices and the economy
https://www.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/march-2022-halifax-house-price-index.pdf Really does feel like we’re at the top now, but what do I know? -
Do you know who updates that table/graph?
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House prices won't go much higher - this is the top
12345 replied to henry the king's topic in House prices and the economy
https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/uk-house-price-growth-surges-to-its-highest-level-since-2004 14.3% - Mental -
Mortgage approvals and lending down a lot in February
12345 replied to henry the king's topic in House prices and the economy
Estate agent and mortgage broker collapse maybe, but the total amount advanced to mortgagors is at the highest ever level, so the above won't change that anytime soon. A massive recession on the other hand... -
House Price Prediction (50% Crash)
12345 replied to Data Dave's topic in House prices and the economy
Surely if they were overvalued by 50%, and lost this overvalue, they'd only fall by a third? -
Doesn't necessarily mean anything, but Coventry Building Society were offering a five year fix, fee-free for 1.35% last month. Just checked today, and their best rate has jumped to... 2.29%! Thought I'd misread, but no; https://www.coventrybuildingsociety.co.uk/member/mortgages/homeowners/existing-members/product-transfers.html