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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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3 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

The Conservatives are a totally different animal now.

As much as I hated them then, they shine like brilliant beacons of success compared to the puss filled mire of the current crops seemingly limitless inadequacy.

Reversal of political allegiance. Then I was supporting John Major, today anyone but BJ.

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8 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Reversal of political allegiance. Then I was supporting John Major, today anyone but BJ.

John Major and Michael Heseltine urging voters to vote against BJ.

As was pointed out earlier he did get an endorsement from Tommy Robinson though...

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8 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Reversal of political allegiance. Then I was supporting John Major, today anyone but BJ.

Interesting thought experiment. I'd have to have a good think about it before supporting Major but find him a lot more palatable than I used to. Alas I missed that vote by something like 9 days ?

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19 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

I am sure it will. It was still a dumb and pointless thing to do.

 

The Euratom treaty has no exit clause. Article 208 explains why.

“This Treaty is concluded for an unlimited period.”

https://democracy.blogactiv.eu/2016/06/16/euratom-after-brexit-votes-uk-will-remain-a-community-member-for-nuclear-non-proliferation/

There seem to be arguments on both sides. 

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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I still think BJ will win but winning is not enough he needs a +30 majority to avoid being held to ransom by the ERG and that is looking difficult now.

NB right now weather is dreadful in London bad enough to put a lot of people off trekking to the polling station. I wonder who will benefit from this. 

Masses of kids voting in the Midlands. Youthquake trending on twitter. A whiff of revolution in the air. ✌️

pa-48488011_0_me6iel.jpg&f=1&nofb=1

 

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1 hour ago, thehowler said:

This is usually attributed to Mussolini, if you're going to keep using the line.

'pologies for pedantry.

I don't want a 2nd ref but can't bring myself to vote for Boris, might have to go for none of the above spoiling.

I can't see any working coalition that puts Corbs in power, which means if Labour don't win and the Tories don't get their projected slim majority we're stuck. I know the remainers/revokers on here think we'll get a quick 2nd ref but there are all kinds of problems getting to that stage - not least needing a govt to approve the funding, and never being able to agree the question - so I'd say another, rapid GE would be more likely.

Some thoughts on what the campaign has taught us...

There is no widespread public appetite for revoke without another vote. No way. Swinson crashed on that.

If we go to a hung Parliament, public disapproval/dismay in the current political system will increase. But there has been no mention of political reform in this campaign - the true elephant in the room.

Corbs is drawing smaller crowds than he did in 2017.

The Tories are becoming the party of what were called the working class.

Boris has seemed oddly disinterested in the campaign, just going through the motions. He might be thinking he preferred being a journalist. If he steps aside for another Tory, there's a good chance you'll get someone worse leading the party.

I have Jewish friends asking me not to vote Labour. That has never happened before and it's something I never thought would happen.

I don't think the Tories have given much thought to what they'll do about the EU next year. It hasn't been discussed in the campaign and Labour have only encouraged this, given their idiotic and impossible Final Say proposal (Corbs still saying we'd get frictionless trade in the last head-to-head debate, and the host didn't even question it). All eyes are on the GE result and they will move from there, pretty much making it up as they go along.

The vote in Scotland appears to have turned into a proxy vote on independence.

Exit vote in 7 hours or so...

 

 

 

The elephant in the room is that Brexit has unleashed more active anti-Semitic attacks. As right wing nutjobs emerge from the woodwork with a license to hate.

Anti-Semitic hate incidents in the UK 'up 16% in 2018'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47147568

Edited by jonb2
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20 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Masses of kids voting in the Midlands. Youthquake trending on twitter. A whiff of revolution in the air. 

Umm, is that not just because the young use social media more than the old?

5 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

It does look like a rather large youth turnout. That would put that cat among the pigeons. 

Depends where they vote and who they vote for.   Thanks to the stupid first past the post system most of their votes will count for literally nothing.  I do wonder why I bother to vote myself.

I mean you might be right, and Jeremy is settling down in No.10 by Christmas, but I'm very cautious about reading too much into some of these anecdotal things.

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Or simply more people voting earlier than usual due to the weather and time of year. Could mean something, might not, we'll know by tomorrow!

***

Might have anecdotal evidence of turnout from people you know (or on whatever social media) but if anyone's reporting it at the moment but isn't that verging into breaking the rules on reporting on elections territory?

Edited by Riedquat
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9 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Umm, is that not just because the young use social media more than the old?

Depends where they vote and who they vote for.   Thanks to the stupid first past the post system most of their votes will count for literally nothing.  I do wonder why I bother to vote myself.

I mean you might be right, and Jeremy is settling down in No.10 by Christmas, but I'm very cautious about reading too much into some of these anecdotal things.

We'll know the truth soon enough but it appears that many more under 30s are voting this time around, even compared with 2017.

Voting%2520intention%2520by%2520age%2520

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11 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Umm, is that not just because the young use social media more than the old?

Depends where they vote and who they vote for.   Thanks to the stupid first past the post system most of their votes will count for literally nothing.  I do wonder why I bother to vote myself.

I mean you might be right, and Jeremy is settling down in No.10 by Christmas, but I'm very cautious about reading too much into some of these anecdotal things.

Anything to lift the spirits really. The alternative is just too depressing.

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5 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

What you don't see is the mountain of Conservative postal votes already cast by their grandparents.

 

Postal votes account for 20% of total votes.

So that mountain will be crushed if those long queues witnessed today swinging to Labour.

If Tories fall below 310 mark, it's almost impossible for them to form government as LibDems won't get into bed this time.

Boris Johson is facing higher risk than Corbyn.

Corbyn can win 270 and SNP winning 45 to 50 and he can still form government.

Bojo winning 309 and LibDems refuse to join him, his government chances are very low even with DUP support as Plaid Cymru, Sinn Fein,  Greens won't back him.

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2 minutes ago, Simhadri said:

Postal votes account for 20% of total votes.

So that mountain will be crushed if those long queues witnessed today swinging to Labour.

If Tories fall below 310 mark, it's almost impossible for them to form government as LibDems won't get into bed this time.

Boris Johson is facing higher risk than Corbyn.

Corbyn can win 270 and SNP winning 45 to 50 and he can still form government.

Bojo winning 309 and LibDems refuse to join him, his government chances are very low even with DUP support as Plaid Cymru, Sinn Fein,  Greens won't back him.

Outside all the bluster I cant see the lib dems not supporting him. They know all too well what happened last time and the Conservatives would never agree to the 2nd referendum asking price.

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40 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

 Thanks to the stupid first past the post system most of their votes will count for literally nothing.  I do wonder why I bother to vote myself.

I used to vote Lib Dem on the basis of proportional representation.  Well, that didn't work out. 

Since I was asked to share, here's why I voted today. Think it'll get done?

 

I-voted-labour-for-free-education (2).png

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29 minutes ago, Simhadri said:

Postal votes account for 20% of total votes.

So that mountain will be crushed if those long queues witnessed today swinging to Labour.

If Tories fall below 310 mark, it's almost impossible for them to form government as LibDems won't get into bed this time.

Boris Johson is facing higher risk than Corbyn.

Corbyn can win 270 and SNP winning 45 to 50 and he can still form government.

Bojo winning 309 and LibDems refuse to join him, his government chances are very low even with DUP support as Plaid Cymru, Sinn Fein,  Greens won't back him.

Nope, Corbs needs six more seats than that to form a govt. And then he'd need total loyalty if he wants to pass a bill. To be safe he'd need ten or fifteen more.

SNP would demand ministers. And an indy ref. (And a lot of Scots unionists are voting against them today.)

High price from a party that's only predicted to get 4% of the vote.

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2 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Nope, Corbs needs six more seats than that to form a govt. And then he'd need total loyalty if he wants to pass a bill. To be safe he'd need ten or fifteen more.

SNP would demand ministers. And an indy ref. (And a lot of Scots unionists are voting against them today.)

High price from a party that's only predicted to get 4% of the vote.

Plaid Cymru and Greens will definitely back Corbyn.

Not sure if he makes a deal with DUP/Sinn Fein

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1 minute ago, Simhadri said:

Plaid Cymru and Greens will definitely back Corbyn.

Not sure if he makes a deal with DUP/Sinn Fein

Maybe you're right, looks fragile to me though. It didn't work when the oppo remain majority of MPs were trying to form their unity govt, but that might have been the fault of the Lib Dems?

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