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Confusion of VIs

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About Confusion of VIs

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    I live on HPC!

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  1. You just have to believe it has a chance of gaining institutional acceptance and gojng to $1m. I took a largish punt on Tesla because I viewed it as an asymmetric bet, 50/50 whether it went to near 0 or x5. Does that make me a believer or a gambler. My Bitcoin investment is another such punt, could go to near 0 or x20. I still suspect near 0 is the more likely outcome but think there is enough of a chance of x20 to make it worth going along for the ride.
  2. People are allowed to do their own assessment. They can choose to believe the scientific consensus or not. The idea that people can do their own research/data analysis and competently assess what they can find is laughable. I have a relation that is recently retired Oxford professor who had spent the last 20 years leading research into infectious diseases. Early on in the pandemic I asked him what he thought the chances of getting a vaccine were, he said he didn't know as the topic was fiendishly complex and despite trying he had never been able to get his head sufficiently around the su
  3. Do you mean the software that, despite intense scrutiny, to date no material errors have been found in? NB isotopic analysis of air contained in ice cores provides a far more sensitive means of tracking historic global air temperature variations than tree rings.
  4. You can subscribe to them, many non dinosaur Conservatives do, but any party seeking a majority needs to recognise that banging on about them over more day to day issues is a vote loser.
  5. Everybody needs to do their own risk assessment. For most this will boil down to do I believe that there is a vast global conspiracy, that all the worlds leading virologists and public health scientists are part of, to make me take an unnecessary and dangerous vaccine. If you do don't take it, if you don't the published evidence is overwhelming that it is a risk worth taking. I am not sure that stepping up efforts to convince people is worthwhile. It's pretty clear that many aren't swayed by reason, preferring to believe whatever nonsense they can find on bitchute etc. over sta
  6. Looking at the vote share changes, it seems that UKIP provided a staging post for Labour voters switch their allegiance to the Tories. The perception that the Tories are disproportionately funnelling money to areas to vote for them probably also helped.
  7. Lets develop your analogy, to make it more relevant to the situation. After deciding you need to change the worn tyres you pay what seems like a bargain price to a tyre shop to do the job for you and later find the tyres have been replaced with an equally worn set. The tyres are different but the underlying tyre problem remains. Worse still, the bill is far larger than you were told it would be and the dodgy tyre shop has bungled the work creating additional problems that will need to be fixed before you get your MoT. Fortunately for the tyre shop the customer is in denial abou
  8. EU membership just provided a convenient source of immigrants. There are plenty of other sources so not really a factor. You keep claiming leaving is one problem solved but it wasn't actually a problem and leaving has come at a huge cost (as quietly admitted by the Treasury when they accepted the OBR's most recent public finance forecast).
  9. No you need to forget about it and move on, trying to tell people told you so and campaigning to re-join would just be counterproductive. Let the next generation see how things develop and decide if they wish to campaign to re-join.
  10. The future path for Bitcoin must now largely depends on it making the transition from a tool for speculators into a store of value widely accepted by the institutions. What can a chart tell you about that? If it is already underway you will spend the next year or two looking at your charts and waiting for a pull back that will never come.
  11. Brexit has done nothing apart from entrench the Tories and create a culture war that may keep them in power for the next 2 or 3 elections?
  12. If you look at the OBR last forecast for the long term sustainability of the public finances. It's clear that, lacking any other ideas, the government thinks we need a bigger population to support the national debt. About 120m would get it down nicely.
  13. The US got lucky with Biden winning by what in normal times would have been called a landslide. However, the culture war is only just getting started, the Republican party is being purged of anyone who doesn't profess belief in the big lie and voting rules rigged to suppress voting in the poorer areas . It remains to be seen if Democracy in the US could survive a narrow Democratic win in 2024.
  14. So far leaving the EU seems to have embedded the main problem. The Tories are a shoo in for 2024, even better Brexit isn't and never will be "done" so they will keep a fair percentage of the Labour Brexit votors for good. We are being taken down the same post fact culture war path as the US, hard to see it ending well.
  15. Most rich people seem quite happy to carry on working. In any case the average man is not going to get rich from crypto, 0.5% seems too high as even if BC goes to a million most would sell out long before they got rich.
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