thehowler

Just looked at the online Gruniad front page. The word Brexit does not appear. End of an era. There's no economic collapse, no 20-mile truck queues, pound is roaring. No political movement to rejoin, next GE is years away and I personally think the collapse of the union stuff is overstated. Suspect the summer will bring a raft of travel/trade hassle stories but I think we're over the precipice I'm checking out, will touch back in December to see how the year went. Fair winds to all.

Andrew Bailey (BofE) sounding miffed on this answering questions to MPs. Clearly some feel the EU are being provocative. Ref only... LONDON (Reuters) - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said post-Brexit moves by the European Union to require banks to justify why they are not moving activities away from Britain were of “dubious legality.” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-bailey-idUSKBN2AO209

Some Europhile pundits understand that EU can't expect concessions on NIP to necessarily link to the mood around the TCA - or UK requests for action on NIP for that matter. NIP is a separate, standalone and special case.

Both parties.

You think the UK govt negotiated tirelessly for the city? Not my view. I also don't buy the future intentions line, it was the same thing we heard on state aid and LPF. It was baloney. Can understand why EU are doing it, their stated aim has been more autonomy around finance so no surprise. I just wonder if a bilateral deal would be more beneficial in the long run.

Yes, but also accusing her of breaking ministerial code. Your comparison might be more apt if you selected a serving and former Brit PM. These people hold/held the highest political office, which again contributes to the importance of the story, in my view.

Could have gone for equivalence and then worked to get a bilateral deal with the city.

Yep, EU trying to grab as much as they can via their equivalence delays, nailing their colours in desire to be a competitor.

Like I was saying. Hard to get at the truth of the story with all the linking to Brexit/indy ref and quick dismissals. If only it wasn't the former leader of the SNP making the charges. He doesn't strike me as a leaver. Or much of an 'English nationalist"... Riddle me that.

EDIT TO ADD: Unfortunately much of the Salmond reporting has fallen into proxy legacy arguments around Brexit and whether Scot independence is an inevitable disastrous consequence of it AND partisan views of camps either side of the Scot ref debate. This tends to detract from the issue of the Scot inquiry and why the two most prominent SNP politicians of recent years are at loggerheads. Witness the odd line of questioning in this newsnight piece...minute 1.25 and again at 2.37, "would you like to see him vindicated?". I imagine it will all go back to court and judges will direct the inquiry again on what evidence is publishable.

I'm puzzled by Salmond - what does he want to achieve? I don't see him as a unionist stooge. I suspect there's a realignment of power looming within the SNP, question is whether it happens before the current Parliament dissolves.

Pound at €1.17...the vaccine show has given the UK a bit of a strut. Will it scramble to €1.2 in March? Brexit negatives seem to have impacted - from reporting, anyway - more on relatively affluent/niche and specialist biz/people in arts/sports/erasmus/language students/au pairs and seafood. I think there'll be a bigger impact on majority of Brits via travel hassles and broad prices of goods as we come out of lockdown. Thus far I don't think many people have noticed much of a change in their weekly shop/bills. But away from the different health emergency approaches - contested - there's also been a complete absence of any Brexit benefits. And not much on the horizon, other than the OZ/NZ deals we might get towards the summer.

UK has agreed to extend MEP ratification process of the TCA until end of April. No fanfare - I think Frost said it was "disappointing". I read trade pundits today saying some in the EU are miffed about UK govt constantly misrepresenting/blaming the EU for the hassles of the TCA. But away from the NIP - which I view as a special, standalone agreement - now that the shellfish ban is settled I don't see the UK govt blaming the EU for anything. They seem disinclined to mention the EU at all. EDIT TO ADD: too many EU watchers don't understand that the NIP is not the TCA, they conflate the two.

Scot politics story has to burst soon, maybe at a Salmond presser tomorrow. I know Scots unionists/Tories are milking it (and the timing of the doc on Kennedy being hounded in his last election contest is noted), but the court action last week with Lord Justice Clerk Dorrian ruling the statement could be published, and then the moves today to redact it, are just bizarro. Salmond is not going gently and that can only mean that one of the First Ministers - former or current - has to fall.

Strange goings on in Scotland this morning. Crown Office - who Salmond in published testimony says is not fit for office - have told Scot parliament to withdraw and redact his published testimony. Some are saying they're doing this as it means the inquiry won't then be able to cite/include it in their findings. Escalating.

Yep. They're under US control. They don't have the codes.

Is there an ongoing discussion? Or is it just you and rollover going on about it as 'less effective'?

The current govt is ideologically opposed to any FOM - hence the deal we ended up with and them rejecting the EU's offer on 90-day mobility of labour, for example. EU market is still available tariff free to vast majority of UK biz, just a few areas where 3rd country health regs don't allow and they can't trade. Companies are finding they have new customs charges to pay if goods don't meet Rules of Origin obligations and there's confusion for some around VAT - a lot of UK companies will have lost their profit margin. As for the EU being a great opportunity...Adonis is already campaigning to rejoin!

A few stats below, not peer reviewed yet. But if it's right it means few people get sick enough to go to hospital. Great news. AZ very effective on preventing death, don't know about transmissibility yet, might hear more this afternoon, a lot of data coming out. Means a whole lotta jabbing going on though... https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1363806457729343488

Doubt they'd qualify for the 90 day visa. - lots of exclusions. They'll need work visas.

Dugs is right. FOM and ECJ absolutism means your EU low flying fruit is five miles off the ground. EU market is still there for UK biz and it's tariff free - that's as good as you're going to get for quite a while. EDIT TO ADD: only tariff free as long as biz doesn't try importing cheaply from ROW and then selling into SM without significantly altering the product - ROI.

I think a lot will have changed by end of this year. Imagine the gov will be looking forward to latter half of 23 as critical.

They all seem to be fans of Thatcher. Putting the hard work/funding in on diplomacy is probably our best bet (dumb move cutting aid budget), the labour reform and shrinking the state guff just means EU tariffs and a Labour govt.

The Tory experiment is to negotiate better deals with these countries tailored more tightly to our trade needs and grow them. But we all know they won't add up to a massive boost. There'll be some small gains. Might see a NZ deal before the summer. Ten pence off a bottle. Drip drip drip... Only kidding. And UK companies will get better at dealing with the hassle selling into the EU. But it's all very underwhelming.

Yep, that's the company I mentioned in my earlier post. Think they relied on repackaging EU goods and selling on. They already have a base in Barcelona. I don't see much Brexit gain for UK biz as we were free to trade with ROW anyway, much of it with low tariff arrangements. All that's changed is they have more incentive to do it and I suppose the UK govt will begin to diverge to assist this - but at that point we risk getting clobbered with EU tariffs. No pragmatic benefit in UK biz lamenting loss of SM, no sign UK gov want to soften and for the EU you're either in or out. Test now is how many relocate, how many go bust and how many start hustling up new orders.