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Everything posted by scottbeard

  1. I don't know what you mean by that first line - sounds like there is a word or two missing?! Infant mortality in the UK right now is about 0.4%. Back in 1900 it was more like 1.3% and in 1800 more like 3.3%. That means eight times as many children used to die in infancy compared to today. And that's only infants - in Victorian times you'd get lots of deaths from 5-18 as well from all sorts of things we now vaccinate people against. Infant mortality is no longer a big driver of mortality changes. As others have pointed out, life expectancy improvements have stalled since the financial crisis. Whilst lots of people have looked into exactly why that is, no-one has yet been able to definitive conclude WHY. Contributors could be: - Financial eg Lower spending on social care means vulnerable but lonely older people have no-one checking up on them. By the time they go to hospital it's too late - Medical eg Several random spikes in diseases killing people off in the last 10 years that didn't occur in 2000-2010, including bad flu in 2015 and COVID in 2020 - Statistical eg we have now "returned to the mean" either as the big improvements in 2000-2010 were all just funded from borrowed money that could never be sustained, or just idiosyncratic randomness i.e. 2000-2010 was just a slightly lucky time to be alive and 2011-2020 slightly unlucky, cancelling each other out
  2. Of course - it's madness that billions of people are starving and living hand to mouth whilst some Dubai Emirati swan around from one bejewelled yacht to another. No sane person could think that is an any sense "right". But I didn't cause it, I can't change it, and it doesn't directly affect me so I do what humans have done for thousands of years and just get on with making the most of my own life. Sigh this is becoming really difficult now. People didn't seem to be moaning about what was happening to THEM but rather to THE WORLD AT LARGE. I was trying to say "don't worry about what you can't change" as a way of trying to cheer people up. Clearly if YOU YOURSELF are suffering that's of no help but that's not who I was aiming at. But you know what, it seems me being on this thread is not helping anyone else, and instead is in danger of just making me less happy. So everyone - OK I'm going to pretend I've changed my mind! The world is terrible! You should spend your whole life becoming ever more upset, miserable and depressed. Bye.
  3. Haha well if you think the world's dystopian but are happy enough anyway then that's fine I'd assumed that the posters who were bewailing the state of the world were in some way shape or form unhappy - my bad for assuming, perhaps
  4. Let me put it another way - the world is how it is, and it's the only world we have to live in. You either take it for what it is and enjoy it for what is there to enjoy, or spend your whole life miserable about things you can't change. Your call.
  5. Last summer there was LOTS of money sloshing round because (1) half the country was getting printed furlough money and (2) the other half were WFH with nothing to spend it on. A year is a long, LONG time. Now we are in the midst of gas crises, food crises, Evergrande collapse contagion crises etc etc. Give that builder another call...
  6. Well hang on, like I said the angry post I was quoting was from 2009. The poster said he was "in his 20s". His entire adult life had been under a Labour government! But yes, overall, Brexit was a response to a mixture of things and was never likely to achieve all of them. I voted Remain and still feel that would have been better, but too many people blame the Leave voters, when the real blame lies at the door of ALL the major parties who, in your language, delivered no better than 6/10 and yet still could not articulate why Brexit would be worse still.
  7. It's all about the Tories? Really? This post caught my eye on another thread...the view of a young person after 12 years of Labour rule... Interesting to note the reference as well to the poster's anger about "English culture is considered a non existent part of life". Then in 2016 the UK votes to leave the EU and everyone wonders why. There was a lot of deep-rooted anger - it was never all about buses and blue passports.
  8. Raising interest rates is great to deal with demand pull inflation - i.e.: - everyone has so much money sloshing about (either because they earned it or someone printed it) that they bid the price of everything up - increase interest rates. Now more of their money is going on debt repayments they don't have so much sloshing about they bid the price of everything up. inflation eases but most people still get their stuff, since the stuff is still there. Indeed some may end up sold at bargain prices. However, it doesn't really help with cost push inflation, i.e.: - it's a bad summer and half the vegetables rot in the field. Price of vegetables rockets up - if you put interest rates up, that doesn't create any new vegetables. All it means is that the indebted poor have bigger mortgage payments and are even LESS likely to afford vegetables (or their gas bill, or whatever it is). so yes inflation eases - but the poorest part of the population starve, because this now tips them to being unable to afford any at all, and there is no "bargain bucket" because the whole point is there weren't enough vegetables in the first place
  9. Two things here. Firstly - many of those have nothing to do with climate change. Why would a 20mph speed limit around schools at pick up time mean that clearly climate change is a problem? Sounds like it just winds you up that you have to drive slowly. Secondly - waiting until a problem is on your doorstep before acknowledging it exists is just reducing the time you have to deal with it. You are the equivalent of the man in Flat 6A saying "Fire? It's Flat 6B that's on fire. Once the flames burst through my own front door THEN I might believe is a fire problem."
  10. Crypto should be a good inflation hedge in the long run, but remember that it is VERY volatile in the short run, so can easily swing up and down: 40-80% falls are not unusual in Bitcoin history. You wouldn't expect it to just neatly tick up in line with inflation. However, at least with Crypto the worst you can do is lose all your money. If you start shorting stuff you can become bankrupt in the blink of an eye.
  11. There's all sorts going on here, I suspect... Firstly, as the article says, if by "extending beyond 65" it means to 66 - the new State Pension Age - that's hardly a problem. Then there's the equity releasers, who deliberately take out a mortgage they expect to die before repaying, and let the bank have their house instead. Then there's the downsizers, who take a mortgage until they're 70 but in practice want to retire age 60 and sell this house and buy a cheaper one for cash. Finally there's the point that young people can't afford houses any more, so not surprising a very large percentage of mortgages are being given to very old people...
  12. I saved about £50 on my car insurance and £100 on the house insurance this year. But regardless of the exact figures, at least you are looking at this the right way - what's happened to TOTAL EXPENDITURE ON EVERYTHING and not just cherry picking a couple of figures and denouncing the RPI/CPI as "wrong". There are three distinct issues at play here: (1) Is inflation a massive problem and likely to get worse before it gets better? Yes, of course. (2) Are the RPI and CPI baskets imperfect, because they don't include house prices? Yes, of course. (3) Are the RPI and CPI baskets massaged/manipulated/just lies? No - they are not. Occasionally there is a mistake in the calculations, but the idea that some posters peddle that inflation is "really" 10% and the government just "tells" the ONS to pretend it's 3% is nonsense. If inflation really were 10% your weekly shop from 2011 of £150 would today cost £389, and clearly it doesn't.
  13. Don't be too sure. In most cases the pension increases on them are limited to 5%pa (or RPI if less). If inflation runs above 5%pa they will slowly lose value, and if we get serious 1970s style inflation then they could become virtually worthless if the 5%pa cap is enforced. BIG CAVEATS: - Public sector ones tend to be CPI with no cap - Each scheme is different. Some schemes do not have a cap, others have one but don't always enforce it
  14. Hmm....despite "dipping" into deflation the amount of Inflation has reduced the value of the Euro's real purchasing power over the last 12 years by about 15-20%. Not hyperinflation of course, but the tone of your comment was "not only has hyperinflation not happened but the opposite has lol" which I think stretches the truth.
  15. Do please talk us through all the deflation we have seen in the last 12 years...
  16. I never knew that! Googling it seems to have been a cracking buying opportunity too, since the index doubled again within the next 3 months.
  17. That's quite a good way of looking at it - although many of these issues affect other countries as well as the UK. QE for example has been done throughout the EU and US too.
  18. I don't think so...$300bn is the amount of unpaid bills they have, which is not the same as the total amount of corporate bonds they have issued. And this table seems to be just for a bond that matures in 2023, which may not be all of their corporate bonds. And that top holding for BlackRock of 43,376 somethings says "% Out" 4.38 - is that saying this is 4.38% of the total? I don't know what the table is, but it seems unlikely to be what you stated
  19. Nothing depressing about deciding not to have children. No point regarding the world as dystopian though - this is the only world you can live in: might as well enjoy it for what it is.
  20. How depressing! I don’t know what the opposite of rose tinted specs is but you seem to be viewing the world through a pair. Plenty of people are happily content - everyone has their problems of course, but most have their joys and pleasures as well. The fact that we will indeed all end up six feet under seems all the more reason to enjoy those pleasures now whilst we can. ”Enjoy yourself, enjoy yourself - it’s later than you think “ as the old song goes
  21. The stock market tends to drop 20% when everyone is saying it’s going to go to the moon, not when everyone is cautious though
  22. Err.:.because without the vaccines it’s pretty obvious the initial wave of deaths would have seemed a sideshow to the number that followed. As it is deaths haven’t increased as fast as cases
  23. And what I’m saying is that we can run a population at below replacement level ratio whilst still l’ leaving everybody who wants to have a child to have at least one child. You can have a sustainable population and still not have heartache left right and centre.
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