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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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4 minutes ago, crouch said:

No, we spend £46 billion on defence, some of which we would spend anyway.

NATO is going through some difficulties at the moment and there is no guarantee of its continued existence. However, what is continuous is the issue of collective security in Europe. In some ways it might be to our advantage if NATO did fade out and Europe would have to arrange its own security. This would put the UK in a pivotal position which could be used to extract more from the EU as part of trade offs.

This is not fantasy; we already co-operate with the French in particular in military matters and Macron does not appear to be averse to taking this co-operation further.

The meds need readjusting.

Once the UK leaves the EU, something like 80% of NATO defence contribution will be non EU.

The UK will naturally maintain interoperability and cohesion with the US.

The longest continuous defence alliance isn’t NATO though.

It’s the Anglo-Portuguese Alliance of 1386...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Portuguese_Alliance

 

 

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2 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Tories pretty much have to fix the mess Labour put the country in. It's happened twice in succession. Then people forget about the mess and get bored with the ongoing Tory austerity and vote them out, only for Labour to get in again and create another mess.

See Callaghan, Thatcher, Brown and Cameron.

Probably the only good thing about Corybn is he will shorten the cycle from 2-3 terms to 1.

Actually Labour has its issues......but they were good at trying to hold back the could have been far worse  negitive consequences of the Global Financial Crash/Crisis......I have respect for Alister Darling and the actions he took at that time......how would the Tories have acted if happen on their watch??

 

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4 minutes ago, crouch said:

No, we spend £46 billion on defence, some of which we would spend anyway.

NATO is going through some difficulties at the moment and there is no guarantee of its continued existence. However, what is continuous is the issue of collective security in Europe. In some ways it might be to our advantage if NATO did fade out and Europe would have to arrange its own security. This would put the UK in a pivotal position which could be used to extract more from the EU as part of trade offs.

This is not fantasy; we already co-operate with the French in particular in military matters and Macron does not appear to be averse to taking this co-operation further.

The meds need readjusting.

Once the UK leaves the EU, something like 80% of NATO defence contribution will be non EU.

The UK will naturally maintain interoperability and cohesion with the US.

The longest continuous defence alliance isn’t NATO though.

It’s the Anglo-Portuguese Alliance of 1386...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Portuguese_Alliance

 

 

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8 minutes ago, crouch said:

No, we spend £46 billion on defence, some of which we would spend anyway.

NATO is going through some difficulties at the moment and there is no guarantee of its continued existence. However, what is continuous is the issue of collective security in Europe. In some ways it might be to our advantage if NATO did fade out and Europe would have to arrange its own security. This would put the UK in a pivotal position which could be used to extract more from the EU as part of trade offs.

This is not fantasy; we already co-operate with the French in particular in military matters and Macron does not appear to be averse to taking this co-operation further.

The meds need readjusting.

Maybe 30 years ago it would but we now have an army incapable of fielding a single fully equipped division and a navy incapable of even defending its own capital ships against a competent adversary. 

  

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5 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Maybe 30 years ago it would but we now have an army incapable of fielding a single fully equipped division and a navy incapable of even defending its own capital ships against a competent adversary. 

  

Indeed, but in a land of pygmies the short man is king.

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On 19/10/2019 at 08:22, Pop321 said:

I haven’t followed this thread except last last few pages because Brexit day is nearly upon us I wondered what our forum might say to help educate me further. It seems so divisive and the debate here is reflective of what I see and hear elsewhere.

Two very different camps...

I think most like me (middle of the road neutrals, who voted remain for liberal reasons and the status quo) now feel the resistance to stop us leaving from within the EU and within parliament has made us very suspicious and would now vote to leave (deal or no deal).
Surprised the EU haven’t just asked us to leave....infact it feels like a request by a guest to leave a party early ended in a heated argument with the host and other guests and this has not only just made the person asking to leave more determined to go home but a lot of others are asking for their coats.

This has gone way past ‘what’s good for the country’.

I get the sense (Rightly or wrongly) that the EU feel if we leave...it’s the thin end of the wedge and there might be a queue behind us....and not the smaller ‘poorer’ member countries. 

I genuinely think another referendum (however it it positioned) would be a much bigger shock than the first...I didn’t want to leave but now they have put a man on the door not letting people out I am looking for the windows. 

The poles etc may not reflect this....but many middle of the road, neutral liberals who voted remain and stay away from the main debate just won’t admit their current view. 

Do you really think that after seeing the economic and political damage being done to the UK anyone other state would think  - that seems to be working out well perhaps we should leave as well.

The reason the EU have not kicked us out is partly because that's not how things are done in the EU and partly self interest, as they are well aware that any form of Brexit is a Lose Lose deal for both us and the EU. 

I also think another referendum would be hugely divisive but so will be continuing down this path Brexit is far from done and what happens at the end of 2020 when we are at another cliff edge with the prospect of either signing off on a BRINO or a no deal WTO exit looms. 

I doubt there are many Remain leaning neutrals who having seen the mess Brexit has caused would decide to vote for it to continue but in any case even if no one had changed their mind demographic changes since the last vote are more than enough to reverse the vote.   

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7 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

Fingers crossed eh. Boris' face would be a picture.

It does look like hung.

Postal ballots showing Tory lead but lot of old tories already cast their postal votes.

Seeing huge queues of young people across country indicates remainers seem to be backing Labour heavily.

Its photo finish as boris said "every vote counts"

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1 minute ago, Simhadri said:

It does look like hung.

Postal ballots showing Tory lead but lot of old tories already cast their postal votes.

Seeing huge queues of young people across country indicates remainers seem to be backing Labour heavily.

Its photo finish as boris said "every vote counts"

I suspect we will still see a Tory majority a lot of the reports about last minute tightening, young hoards queuing to vote are no doubt being generated to encourage Tories to turn out. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I suspect we will still see a Tory majority a lot of the reports about last minute tightening, young hoards queuing to vote are no doubt being generated to encourage Tories to turn out. 

 

You may be right but seeing places like Watford, Bedford, Milton Keynes, Wirral West(Lab Hold seems likely) showing signs of Labour gains in some ultra marginals unless ethnic minorities back Tories there. 

Even Hertfordshire which was once a safe blue territory showing red inroads.

I thought even 1 week ago that a Tory majority is for sure.

But last 3-4 days changed the course completely.

Boris shouldn't have involved in those gaffes with media and being stubborn to look at a mobile indicates he is less willing to listen.

Even SUN journos are writing columns about late and strong surge for Labour.

Taking Canterbury was unimaginable for Labour until 2017. But that happened.

Tories will certainly lose seats in London and Scotland.

To recoup losses they MUST gain in Wales and Northern England.

Wales look good for Tories but Northern parts of country still seem to be happy with the Red Wall. 

It's very close battle than imagined.

Thanks to MAY, Boris is already careful.

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58 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Maybe 30 years ago it would but we now have an army incapable of fielding a single fully equipped division and a navy incapable of even defending its own capital ships against a competent adversary. 

  

What are you advocating?

Massively increasing our defence spending?

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17 minutes ago, Simhadri said:

You may be right but seeing places like Watford, Bedford, Milton Keynes, Wirral West(Lab Hold seems likely) showing signs of Labour gains in some ultra marginals unless ethnic minorities back Tories there. 

Even Hertfordshire which was once a safe blue territory showing red inroads.

I thought even 1 week ago that a Tory majority is for sure.

But last 3-4 days changed the course completely.

Boris shouldn't have involved in those gaffes with media and being stubborn to look at a mobile indicates he is less willing to listen.

Even SUN journos are writing columns about late and strong surge for Labour.

Taking Canterbury was unimaginable for Labour until 2017. But that happened.

Tories will certainly lose seats in London and Scotland.

To recoup losses they MUST gain in Wales and Northern England.

Wales look good for Tories but Northern parts of country still seem to be happy with the Red Wall. 

It's very close battle than imagined.

Thanks to MAY, Boris is already careful.

I still think BJ will win but winning is not enough he needs a +30 majority to avoid being held to ransom by the ERG and that is looking difficult now.

NB right now weather is dreadful in London bad enough to put a lot of people off trekking to the polling station. I wonder who will benefit from this.  

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4 hours ago, Chunketh said:

That was before TM pulled us out of Euratom.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/nuclear-research-after-brexit

ITER has many non-EU and non-Euratom members.

SInce the UK is a significant contributor to the programme, and hosting the most successful fusion reactor to date at Culham, I am sure a workaround for Euratom will be found. 

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5 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

Hitler made the trains run on time.

This is usually attributed to Mussolini, if you're going to keep using the line.

'pologies for pedantry.

I don't want a 2nd ref but can't bring myself to vote for Boris, might have to go for none of the above spoiling.

I can't see any working coalition that puts Corbs in power, which means if Labour don't win and the Tories don't get their projected slim majority we're stuck. I know the remainers/revokers on here think we'll get a quick 2nd ref but there are all kinds of problems getting to that stage - not least needing a govt to approve the funding, and never being able to agree the question - so I'd say another, rapid GE would be more likely.

Some thoughts on what the campaign has taught us...

There is no widespread public appetite for revoke without another vote. No way. Swinson crashed on that.

If we go to a hung Parliament, public disapproval/dismay in the current political system will increase. But there has been no mention of political reform in this campaign - the true elephant in the room.

Corbs is drawing smaller crowds than he did in 2017.

The Tories are becoming the party of what were called the working class.

Boris has seemed oddly disinterested in the campaign, just going through the motions. He might be thinking he preferred being a journalist. If he steps aside for another Tory, there's a good chance you'll get someone worse leading the party.

I have Jewish friends asking me not to vote Labour. That has never happened before and it's something I never thought would happen.

I don't think the Tories have given much thought to what they'll do about the EU next year. It hasn't been discussed in the campaign and Labour have only encouraged this, given their idiotic and impossible Final Say proposal (Corbs still saying we'd get frictionless trade in the last head-to-head debate, and the host didn't even question it). All eyes are on the GE result and they will move from there, pretty much making it up as they go along.

The vote in Scotland appears to have turned into a proxy vote on independence.

Exit vote in 7 hours or so...

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, kzb said:

ITER has many non-EU and non-Euratom members.

SInce the UK is a significant contributor to the programme, and hosting the most successful fusion reactor to date at Culham, I am sure a workaround for Euratom will be found. 

I am sure it will. It was still a dumb and pointless thing to do.

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14 minutes ago, thehowler said:

I have Jewish friends asking me not to vote Labour. That has never happened before and it's something I never thought would happen.

 

I have Jewish family telling me the exact opposite. I am sure the problem exists but is not as bad as is being made out and genuine criticism of the state of Israel is not antisemitic. 

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3 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

I don't want to jinx it but it feels a bit like 1992 when the positive results came in very late. I went to bed despondent and awoke jubilant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_Kingdom_general_election

Everything to play for still.

The Conservatives are a totally different animal now.

As much as I hated them then, they shine like brilliant beacons of success compared to the puss filled mire of the current crops seemingly limitless inadequacy.

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