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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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2 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

I don't think that's obvious. The Tories could still win a majority even if Boorish Johnson gets shitcanned. Also, if it pointed to hung Parliament, wouldn't that likely mean the crazy gangs weren't in a position to do much damage? A second referendum with the possibility of remaining sounds good. Labour having to tone down some of their more "extreme" policies. Wouldn't this be good for sterling?

A second referendum which would go remain would send the pound soaring!

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1 minute ago, Kosmin said:

I don't think that's obvious. The Tories could still win a majority even if Boorish Johnson gets shitcanned. Also, if it pointed to hung Parliament, wouldn't that likely mean the crazy gangs weren't in a position to do much damage? A second referendum with the possibility of remaining sounds good. Labour having to tone down some of their more "extreme" policies. Wouldn't this be good for sterling?

Sterling's been weak all day. Short-covering in the last hour could explain the bounce.

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1 minute ago, Kosmin said:

I don't think that's obvious. The Tories could still win a majority even if Boorish Johnson gets shitcanned. Also, if it pointed to hung Parliament, wouldn't that likely mean the crazy gangs weren't in a position to do much damage? A second referendum with the possibility of remaining sounds good. Labour having to tone down some of their more "extreme" policies. Wouldn't this be good for sterling?

It's gone up a lot on the expectation that we will get a clear result, if it looks like another hung Parliament it will at least temporarily move down sharply. So far the live feed shows no movement so no big bets being made either way,  in fact slight upward tick in the last minute.  

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7 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

So if the Tories won a majority; and Boris loses his seat - WTF happens then, constitutionally?

I know he can rush to a safe seat by election - but would he stay as prime minister if he wasn’t an Mp?

In theory I don't think there's anything that says that the PM has to be an MP, although in practice it would be awkward (it's been a long time since there was a PM who wasn't).

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13 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

So if the Tories won a majority; and Boris loses his seat - WTF happens then, constitutionally?

I know he can rush to a safe seat by election - but would he stay as prime minister if he wasn’t an Mp?

Sky reckons a bigger majority on the exit poll!

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