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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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2 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

Maybe the people in line know we could have spent three and a half years making deals if politicians had accepted the vote, instead of a Remain cabal (how many will keep their seats tonight?) doing everything in their power to stop the people having their say?

It was the ERG that stopped the Tory Brexit going through. 

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Don't get my hopes up ?, even if it is only for a few hours more.

Think I'm gonna need a drink also for this one...

 

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Just now, Kosmin said:

Isle of Wight's electorate was more than 110,000. Only six others above 90k: 93 North West Cambridgeshire, 92 Bristol West and Milton Keynes South, 90 Manchester CentralSleaford and North Hykeham and West Ham.

 

I'm sad, and have been reading up about it, but the IOW constituency was supposed to be split into east and west.  Didn't happen though...

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6 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

I've had a look at this... https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/prime-minister-lost-seat-general-election

Boris could turf out another Tory in a safe seat, and hold a bi-election...

Yes - but that would come after tonight.

Talk of him taking the Devizes seat...

https://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/18089565.pure-mischief-mail-says-tory-candidate-kruger-boris-claims/

so that 20/1 special looks quite a good bet IMHO.

Edited by GrizzlyDave
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41 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

PP Lab majority going out to 25/1

You would have thought that the referendum odds/result would have taught people that betting odds reflect weight of money nothing more. 

If the £ moves significantly around 9:45pm that might tell you something - some currency speculators will have, as they did for the referendum itself, organised their own informal exit polls and will be placing bets in the run up to the exit BBC poll release.     

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9 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Yes - but that would come after tonight.

Talk of him taking the Devizes seat...

https://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/18089565.pure-mischief-mail-says-tory-candidate-kruger-boris-claims/

so that 20/1 special looks quite a good bet IMHO.

On the leave side, Raab could be in trouble, as could IDS, Villiers and Redwood...

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6 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

You would have thought that the referendum odds/result would have taught people that betting odds reflect weight of money nothing more. 

If the £ moves significantly around 9:45pm that might tell you something - some currency speculators will have, as they did for the referendum itself, organised their own informal exit polls and will be placing bets in the run up to the exit BBC poll release.     

Have you any skin in the game?

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5 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

I'm sad, and have been reading up about it, but the IOW constituency was supposed to be split into east and west.  Didn't happen though...

I was going to suggest split the island in two. The bigger side is say 70-75k (just guessing that this is about the average electorate) and the remainder could be joined with a chunk from the mainland to make another constituency of about the same size. 

But there are actually some really small constituencies:

Na h-Eileanan an Iar 21,769

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 47,558

Orkney and Shetland 34,552

Arfon 40,492

Aberconwy 45,525

Dwyfor Meirionnydd 44,394

 

Thanks for drawing this to my attention! (I thought there was much less variation in constituency size)

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

I was going to suggest split the island in two. The bigger side is say 70-75k (just guessing that this is about the average electorate) and the remainder could be joined with a chunk from the mainland to make another constituency of about the same size. 

But there are actually some really small constituencies:

Na h-Eileanan an Iar 21,769

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 47,558

Orkney and Shetland 34,552

Arfon 40,492

Aberconwy 45,525

Dwyfor Meirionnydd 44,394

 

Thanks for drawing this to my attention! (I thought there was much less variation in constituency size)

 

 

The electoral boundary commission try and aim for around 70,000 per constituency..

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1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

£ not really moved yet, if true it would be dropping like a stone.

I don't think that's obvious. The Tories could still win a majority even if Boorish Johnson gets shitcanned. Also, if it pointed to hung Parliament, wouldn't that likely mean the crazy gangs weren't in a position to do much damage? A second referendum with the possibility of remaining sounds good. Labour having to tone down some of their more "extreme" policies. Wouldn't this be good for sterling?

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10 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

On the leave side, Raab could be in trouble, as could IDS, Villiers and Redwood...

Nice!

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