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About thehowler

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  1. Poorer to start, fer sure. Might be poorer for good, depends how business/trade/tech evolves in coming years. I see Trudeau is hinting a Canada deal is close. The pro-Brexit crowd and UK govt will hail it as a great deal, but to most observers it will only give us what we already have. And here's the rub, as seen with Soygate, it takes a lot of hard work to get these rollover deals in just a few months but they result in almost no economic/political gain. The Brit diplomats will get better at it though, they have to. And there will be a few new clauses in the FTAs that will lead to u
  2. This has always been my view but there's the risk of a banana peel - straight, not bendy - when you run everything to the last few weeks. I suppose they'd find a way to have a temporary extension of transition terms if so? They've been careful to say they're not in the tunnel, yet, so I guess they could announce that in next day or two, aim to present the deal in mid-Nov. I don't buy the line that Johnson's waiting for the US result, i think any US deal is still years away.
  3. Events are pressing in, will the negotiations in Brussels break down in the face of too many other pressures? Belgium might move to lockdown at the weekend, I don't see how the UK team could stay on if that happens. Macron has a national lockdown and another terrorist atrocity to address, fish will not be at the forefront of his thoughts. Merkel is getting heckled in the Bundestag and Johnson being urged to move to tier 4/5 or a lockdown in next days. Could they really make a FTA announcement tomorrow or Saturday, doesn't feel likely.
  4. It's gone quiet because both sides have stopped leaking to their favoured journos. We're in the tunnel, without saying we're in the tunnel. Outline of a deal announced on Friday, maybe, then some more jostling first week or two of Nov, or they might not even bother with that. Ports/travel disruption in January, but after the looming-catastrophe press coverage of the last six months and the pandemic restrictions I don't think it will shock many people. Then we'll have six months of traders changing their supply lines - no more bulk shipments of grapes from South Africa to Rotterdam, w
  5. How much are the ECB buying each month now? I wonder what percentage of Italian debt they own. Think they dropped the 33% limit a while back.
  6. FT briefing that the battery Rules of Origin row has sparked a letter from car makers...industry group has confirmed. Some crowing from the old Brexit mob but it's just a sign that negotiations around the deal are ongoing.
  7. Barnier prepping the ground for a Thursday visit...deal fudge to begin next week? It's still for Johnson to take the deal opprobrium from the hard leavers (I see Farage is cheering talk of an Oz deal) but I think he'll go for the "ooh, he got a deal after al!" panto. Then he just needs to point out that all regions will get equal cash package in tier 3, (Liverpool very quiet the last 24 hours), swerve a national lockdown, weather the ports chaos for six months, fend off the SNP and then start charming the billionaires to invest in UK tech... PMQs could be tetchy today.
  8. I heard Gove compared end of transition to the temporary hassles of moving house (stretching the Blair Brexit-mad allegory) but don't worry because we're moving to a bigger, better house. Visions of houses on cliffs come to mind...
  9. The odds are getting tighter, dugs, I'll give you that. But in the end I reckon both sides will back down and take the deal. Not long now.
  10. Whispers that Barnier is coming to London on Thursday...but it might just be journos getting bored. For all you carnivores, I see the EU are on the point of banning "veggieburger' and other fake news terms after lobbying from the meat/agri lobby...and they've already banned the use of "milk" for oat milk etc. Or is that all getting too bent banana...
  11. Getting draughty now with all these doors open...audience nodding off, waiting for Act III.
  12. It looks to me that the UK has accepted there will have to be some detailed and shared principles and some kind of dispute mechanism AND/OR new independent body to oversee them - but no agreement yet. Also sounds as though the EU are still insisting on some level of dynamic alignment on environmental and labour rights. Worth bearing in mind that whatever is cooked up regards state subsidies, the WA will have to be amended to reflect them in the FTA, as far as it covers NI. The UK isn't going to want separate subsidy regs for NI with potential reach into UK-wide, hence the fuss with the IM
  13. EU team coming to London on Wednesday - sans Barnier? - so might get a tweet/statement later today from Merkel or other to say that of course, the EU is open to compromise ("but not at any price!"). That might kick the ajar door open for talks this week but I've got a feeling it's going to drift into early Nov.
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