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kzb

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  1. I'm looking forward to our risk assessment also. They have always been very keen on PPE previously, including respiratory protection for the slightest possibility of risk. I'm interested to see which side they jump on with this.
  2. The protestors will come from all over, not just London (in the US they have been bussing protestors in allegedly). They are putting their whole household at risk not just themselves. Next thing, these very same people will be ranting about the dire performance of the UK in containing the virus. This is what gets me, the hypocrisy.
  3. I've just finished Bill Bryson's The Body. Diseases are funny things. Bubonic plague (The Black Death) killed 30% of the population. It never went extinct, there are a handful of cases per year in the US. It seems a mystery how these isolated cases appear out of nowhere. Also, there is no resultant pandemic, just random isolated cases. There is no good explanation why this should be so. There are lethal mystery virus outbreaks quite frequently in the US. No-one knows how they start and why they stop.
  4. No I said where the excess deaths figure came from. It was from the link below and it is not just London, it is the whole UK. That is a source of uncertainty in itself, because the antibody survey was England, not the UK. I couldn't find the excess deaths figure for England alone, not without a lot of work. It can be calculated from the ONS figures maybe, but it would take time. I also assumed the England antibody rate was the same for the whole UK. It won't be, because London is known to be anomalously high (17%) compared to other areas, so the England average is bound to be higher than other UK countries. https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0
  5. Antibody survey England: As of 24 May 2020, 6.78% (95% confidence interval: 5.21% to 8.64%) of individuals from whom blood samples were taken tested positive for antibodies to the coronavirus (COVID-19). This is based on blood test results from 885 individuals since the start of the study on 26 April 2020. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/28may2020#antibody-tests-for-covid-19 The population of England is 56.3m (or it was in 2019). Of these, 3.82m are estimated to test positive for antibodies on 24 May. The official covid death toll on 24 May was 37,116. This gives an IFR of about 0.96%. As far as I can make out, UK excess deaths were around 59.5k. This gives an IFR of about 1.5%. Make of that what you will. The excess deaths figure comes from this: https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0
  6. Then again England has 85% of the population of the whole UK, so I am not sure there can be much difference between the UK and England, in percentage terms.
  7. On balance I agree, but the problem is the other side will say there are loads of excess deaths because of non-Covid medical conditions not being treated. Personally I doubt this could be a big number so far, but others do not. Also lots of care home deaths have been labelled as Covid without a test.
  8. I certainly think we need one or the other, lockdown rules that are actually kept to, or let it rip. Not this halfway lockdown we have now, which most are not following, but which is also losing us many thousands of jobs. Let's have one or the other: either target eradicating the virus, or go for herd immunity.
  9. OK then let it rip. As long as it is voluntary and the softies like me can carry on hiding from it. (I've flown only once in the last ten years I don't miss it. It's a truly horrible experience these days anyhow.) Also, you can't be guaranteed a hospital place, if you get a serious case you are on your own with it. The fact is most people are pretty well ignoring the rules already, so what I describe is already happening. As long as I can keep out of it while the majority build herd immunity for me, fine.
  10. I was commenting on the population density question. I don't know why you are getting uppity when I have probably agreed with you in what I said. Having said that, Germany is not exactly a slimline country and they are not doing so bad either.
  11. Japan is more densely populated and they are doing OK. As are many other densely populated countries. It's not the only factor nor even the most important one.
  12. Today, with the highest daily deaths of any country in the world, we are well on course to overtake Spain in deaths per head of population. UK = 575 and Spain = 580, so I bet we will overtake tomorrow. This is after overtaking Italy last week. After that the only largish country worse than us is Belgium. Wouldn't it have been great to be one of the best, instead of second to the bottom? It's not going to be good for our reputation or our economy.
  13. But now we have the antibody surveys both here and in Spain. This gives us a good estimate of how many have been infected and survived. In UK this number is 7% and in Spain, 5%. All you need to do is divide the deaths (at the time of these surveys) by the number infected (plus the deaths) and bingo you have the Infection Fatality Rate. It is really simple now we have these antibody survey results. In both UK and Spain the result is roughly 1%. The "died bit" is actually not so simple: do we use the official Covid deaths number, or should we use the excess mortality, i.e the total deaths above the average for the time of year? This obviously gives a higher IFR than using the official Covid deaths number.
  14. It's not news that some infections remain asymptomatic. As far back as the Diamond Princess episode, where it was found 18% were asymptomatic. This is a well known fact, although different studies have found different percentages. What is always true is that the asymptomatic are in the minority. Whilst the exact figure of 43% is unique to this small Italian town, the overall finding is fairly typical. There are not ten times the number of symptomatic cases, as some fondly imagine. Yes it would be highly useful if we could know in advance who would be asymptomatic and who would end up critical. But this is a long way off.
  15. 43% isn't exactly a gamechanger though. It means 57% ( i.e the majority) showed symptoms.
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