Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[kzb]

Diamond Princess outbreak analysed to find how many get infected but remain asymptomatic:

In this study, we conducted statistical modelling analyses on publicly available data to elucidate the asymptomatic proportion, along with the time of infection among the COVID-19 cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

Our estimated asymptomatic proportion is at 17.9% (95%CrI: 15.5–20.2%), which overlaps with a recently derived estimate of 33.3% (95% confidence interval: 8.3–58.3%) from data of Japanese citizens evacuated from Wuhan [13]. Considering the reported similarity in viral loads between asymptomatic and symptomatic patients [14] and that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic cases may be possible, even though there is no clear evidence as yet of asymptomatic transmission, the relatively high proportion of asymptomatic infections could have public health implications.

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180

[anonguest]

7 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Matt Hancock is positive . 

 

 

What are they all doing in those cabinet meetings? Hugging and kissing each other? ?

Either that OR

duhm duhm duhm........this thing is actually a shed load more contagious than we are being led to believe and not just caught by coughing and sneezing AND we should be wearing masks when in close proximity to others - contrary to that HMG is telling Joe Public.

Edited March 27, 2020 by anonguest

[smash]

Surely there's going too be more than Hancock. Chris Witty and/or his deputy, the chief science guy, other cabinet members.

[mspL4]

13 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Matt Hancock too?

Good to see that they've been heeding their own advice regarding Social Distancing

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

5 minutes ago, anonguest said:

What are they all doing in those cabinet meetings? Hugging and kissing each other? ?

Either that OR

duhm duhm duhm........this thing is actually a shed load more contagious than we are being led to believe and not just caught by coughing and sneezing AND we should be wearing masks when in close proximity to others - contrary to that HMG is telling Joe Public.

So locking down the entire county, stopping the economy, shutting down pubs, restaurants and theatres, police on the streets. Emergency mortuaries and volunteers.

So in what way are we being "led to believe" it isn't contagious ?

 

[anonguest]

7 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

So locking down the entire county, stopping the economy, shutting down pubs, restaurants and theatres, police on the streets. Emergency mortuaries and volunteers.

So in what way are we being "led to believe" it isn't contagious ?

 

The fact, as I alluded to, that there are still, even with the current lockdown, huge numbers of people getting out and about, interacting, commuting to work (on crowded trains/buses) in offices, etc BUT NOT routinely wearing face masks a la China, etc.  BEACAUSE the official guidance remains that Joe Public doesn't NEED to wear one.

Now, UNLESS TPTB can prove 100% that this is correct and you absolutely cannot catch it by inhaling proximally ordinary exhaled breath from others, then a simple precautionary approach would dictate advising people to cover their faces. No?

Edited March 27, 2020 by anonguest

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

Word is, they all got Toryitis.

Foul stench ?, sadly there's no cure. ??

[Peter Hun]

15 minutes ago, anonguest said:

What are they all doing in those cabinet meetings? Hugging and kissing each other? ?

Either that OR

duhm duhm duhm........this thing is actually a shed load more contagious than we are being led to believe and not just caught by coughing and sneezing AND we should be wearing masks when in close proximity to others - contrary to that HMG is telling Joe Public.

The most infectious period is 15 hours before symptoms appear. Anyone in the same room is going to catch if there for more than 15 minutes - you don't need to touch your face. It stays in the air for 30 minutes ??

[anonguest]

Just now, Peter Hun said:

The most infectious period is 15 hours before symptoms appear. Anyone in the same room is going to catch if there for more than 15 minutes - you don't need to touch your face. It stays in the air for 30 minutes ??

Hence my banging on about the need for masks.  But we are told we don't NEED them.

[slawek]

19 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/dominic-cummings-seen-running-no-114514496.html

That's so funny

 

[Si1]

3 minutes ago, anonguest said:

The fact, as I alluded to, that there are still, even with the current lockdown, huge numbers of people getting out and about, interacting, commuting to work (on crowded trains/buses) in offices, etc BUT NOT routinely wearing face masks a la China, etc.  BEACAUSE the official guidance remains that Joe Public doesn't NEED to wear one.

 

I believe the reasoning is in the main that the NHS etc should get the facemasks not the general public.

[winkie]

1 hour ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Herd immunity just got real. 

I thought that was the original plan.....if not so, should practice what they preach.

[debtlessmanc]

21 minutes ago, anonguest said:

What are they all doing in those cabinet meetings? Hugging and kissing each other? ?

Either that OR

duhm duhm duhm........this thing is actually a shed load more contagious than we are being led to believe and not just caught by coughing and sneezing AND we should be wearing masks when in close proximity to others - contrary to that HMG is telling Joe Public.

apperently going to the mosque or gurdwarsa is bad too

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/west-midlands-emerges-as-a-hotspot-for-coronavirus-deaths

Edited March 27, 2020 by debtlessmanc

[scottbeard]

8 minutes ago, anonguest said:

What are they all doing in those cabinet meetings? Hugging and kissing each other? ?

Either that OR

duhm duhm duhm........this thing is actually a shed load more contagious than we are being led to believe and not just caught by coughing and sneezing AND we should be wearing masks when in close proximity to others - contrary to that HMG is telling Joe Public.

Erm - why the false dichotomy that either (1) cabinet ministers kiss each other or (2) COVID-19 is orders of magintude more contangious than announced?

In fact isn't it simply that we are advised to keep 2 metres apart from people, and wash hands after touching surfaces others have touched, when - like just about every other work colleagues in Britain - the PM and health minister will have spent time CLOSER than 2 metres apart and touched the same chairs, tables, doors etc without washing their hands....?

[winkie]

6 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I believe the reasoning is in the main that the NHS etc should get the facemasks not the general public.

They are available to buy at a pumped up price on-line.....can only help prevent others getting it if nothing else.....so those wearing them should be looked upon as unselfish and thoughtful, not selfish depriving the health service of masks, the HNS have separate suppliers to provide for them....the more ppe they can get to protect themselves and others the better, the basic requirement of the job in this climate. 

[ticket2ride]

3 minutes ago, winkie said:

They are available to buy at a pumped up price on-line.....can only help prevent others getting it if nothing else.....so those wearing them should be looked upon as unselfish and thoughtful, not selfish depriving the health service of masks, the HNS have separate suppliers to provide for them....the more ppe they can get to protect themselves and others the better, the basic requirement of the job in this climate. 

This is what I get if I search "mask" on Screwfix

[anonguest]

8 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I believe the reasoning is in the main that the NHS etc should get the facemasks not the general public.

Absolutely this is the reason.  TPTB know full weel that IF they had issued even so much as a suggestion we all wear one THEN, as with the supermarkets, national stock would have disappeared overnight - and so there'd be none for those who ABSOLUTELY need them.

No, however, that there are none to buy anyway (and presumably/hopefully stocks are building up for those who NEED them) there is no excuse not to revise the CV guidance and say.....actually, we think it would be sensible if you tried to cover your nose/mouth when 'interacting' with others.   Even a makshift and briaf mask will inhibit exhaled breath from a potential carrier.

In my mind the biggest PR mistake of this whole CV episode has been the endless narrative of 'don't worry, most will only get mild symptoms'.  EVEN IF true (which it sounds so far to be a bit of stretch to believe) it's nOT what you want to be tellign the public IF you wan them to rigourously be adhering to social distancing, taking extreme care in hygeine, staying at home, etc.

What they should have told everyone is the opposite. They should have put the fear of god into the public. THAT would have kept EVERYONE except the mentally ill (and homeless  ?  )  off the streets!

[winkie]

6 minutes ago, ticket2ride said:

This is what I get if I search "mask" on Screwfix

 

[rollover]

1 hour ago, smash said:

HaHa ! BBC just showing film of Cummings literally running out of No10 and down the street about an hour ago. The very proverbial rat jumping ship.

What is the Chief Advisor's advice right now?

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

11 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Absolutely this is the reason.  TPTB know full weel that IF they had issued even so much as a suggestion we all wear one THEN, as with the supermarkets, national stock would have disappeared overnight - and so there'd be none for those who ABSOLUTELY need them.

No, however, that there are none to buy anyway (and presumably/hopefully stocks are building up for those who NEED them) there is no excuse not to revise the CV guidance and say.....actually, we think it would be sensible if you tried to cover your nose/mouth when 'interacting' with others.   Even a makshift and briaf mask will inhibit exhaled breath from a potential carrier.

In my mind the biggest PR mistake of this whole CV episode has been the endless narrative of 'don't worry, most will only get mild symptoms'.  EVEN IF true (which it sounds so far to be a bit of stretch to believe) it's nOT what you want to be tellign the public IF you wan them to rigourously be adhering to social distancing, taking extreme care in hygeine, staying at home, etc.

What they should have told everyone is the opposite. They should have put the fear of god into the public. THAT would have kept EVERYONE except the mentally ill (and homeless  ?  )  off the streets!

So re face masks you're saying that the government is not telling the truth.

So re "mild symptoms" you're saying the government should not tell the truth.

 

[PeanutButter]

15 minutes ago, rollover said:

What is the Chief Advisor's advice right now?

3 word slogan: Test Me Now!

[kzb]

All BBC talking heads presenting narrative that Boris will have a week in isolation, bit of a cough, but keeps on running everything, then back to work.  No problem.

The truth is (we think) is, as a 55 yo male he has a 1 in 6 chance of hospitalisation.

 

 

[Si1]

1 minute ago, kzb said:

All BBC talking heads presenting narrative that Boris will have a week in isolation, bit of a cough, but keeps on running everything, then back to work.  No problem.

The truth is (we think) is, as a 55 yo male he has a 1 in 6 chance of hospitalisation.

 

 

Shouldn't the rest of the cabinet go into isolation too now?

[anonguest]

2 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

So re face masks you're saying that the government is not telling the truth.

So re "mild symptoms" you're saying the government should not tell the truth.

 

On the first point I do not believe they are lying per se.  They are. more likely, being 'economical with the actualite' (as the late Alan Clark would say). I can easily see what would have happened in briefing with the PM, science advisors, etc......

The question of masks for use by Joe Public must ahve arisen at some point (after all everyone has seen EVERYONE in China wandering around wearing masks).  When asked I am sure the advisors would have trotted out the 'accepted wisdom' re: mask usage.  IF asked 'is possible CV can be passed on through breath in close proximity?' they would likely have told the PM and others 'there's no hard evidence' or 'it's not impossible'.   THAT sort of answer, which you can be sure would have been minuted (and we will get to see in 30 years or so) would be all TPTB to justify saying 'no need to wear a mask' because they knew if they said otherwise there'd be a panic run on limited stocks,

On the second point.....

Are you so naive/ignorant of history to believe that government NEVER lies to the public?

This, to use their own words, is a WAR.  And truth is the first casualty of war.

But that doesn't mean I would ordinarily condone governments lieing to us. Of course not.

But, at the same time, I reiterate that IF you want to get maximal adherence to the various preventative advices being given then you don't want to be sugar coating everything with 'don't worry most people wont suffer much' etc.

[anonguest]

13 minutes ago, kzb said:

All BBC talking heads presenting narrative that Boris will have a week in isolation, bit of a cough, but keeps on running everything, then back to work.  No problem.

The truth is (we think) is, as a 55 yo male he has a 1 in 6 chance of hospitalisation.

 

 

IF he gets 'hospitalised' (most likely done in private) and word gets out then that will likely focus many a mind and be a 'wake up' call to the many who still think this is just bad flu and/or governments are overreacting, etc.

Might also be a catalyst to send financial markets on another leg lower?

Edited March 27, 2020 by anonguest