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House Price Crash Forum

Gigantic Purple Slug

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About Gigantic Purple Slug

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    I live on HPC!

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  1. You say "store the notes" but surely there is not that much cash available. They would have to issue special physcial notes, or store it digitally.
  2. We're not supporting anything. Just outlining why for some people this is a sensible option.
  3. Actually if you are furloughed it makes more sense to take the mortgage holiday and bank the mortgage payment. That way if they end the holiday and furlough and you get made redundant you have money to pay it, and it will extend your time to find a new job.
  4. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-52761890/how-will-we-pay-for-the-coronavirus-damage Nice BBC article for the plebs. Actually watching this I was reminded that the air tax revenue will go down massively. As will the VAT gained by restaurants. As will the stamp duty on houses. As will the fuel duty because people are travelling less. Doesn't sound good.
  5. If this surprises you, then you would probably be shocked at the level of "financial innovation" that goes on at most businesses. In the last business I was in we literally didn't own the chairs our arses sat on. Everything was lease financed, probably to up the profits in 1 year so the directors/shareholders could get better bonuses. Lease financing, just in time stock holding, businesses have been running leaner and leaner for years. So when something like Covid comes along, the amount of reserves or potential to try to get extra contingency is pretty close to zero, otherwise it would already have been done to line someones pockets. I really don't know what the answer is to this, because you can bet your **** as soon as we come out of this, the bean counters will pop up again and be doing exactly the same things. The only way I see it getting resolved is through the government forcing some sort of disaster insurance scheme.
  6. I shouldn't have to moderate my behaviour because you can't control yours. There is a dedicated thread for gold. There is a dedicated thread for bitcoin. I am sure the moderators will start up a dedicated thread for something else if you have a need and there is appetite for discussion. There are plenty of other sites on the web where you can gold ramp if you so wish. If everyone just spent their time on the site ramping their investment of choice it would become an incredibly tedious place, with huge numbers of ramping posts and small bits of interesting information between them.
  7. The endless gold ramping is getting a bit tiring. it's pretty much the same as "house prices only go up". Back in the past the gold bugs pretty much wrecked the site by posting gold buggery everywhere. There is a dedicated thread on gold where you can ramp to your hearts content.
  8. If you'd bought at the 1980 high it would have taken you the best part of 30 years (2008) to get back your original stake. And of course inflation was significant over the period.
  9. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-8340695/Can-redundant-furlough-Companies-plan-axe-staff.html
  10. I think savers response tends to be political rather than economic. There is a psychological barrier at zero rates. Once the banks start actually taking money off you "to give to the feckless borrowers for free" people get enraged. See this site for example. Not that they can actually do anything about it. There will be plenty of mouth foaming, but not much alternative. Where the response actually comes in is where they will vote in the next election. Although most boomers with 100K+ savings in the bank are probably immovably Tory, there are probably enough in the change your mind zone to tip the balance. Still, next election is a long way away yet.
  11. Return of the money is deemed more important than return on the money.
  12. I'm not sure that a once in a lifetime catastrophic event causing a house price collapse is a great "I told you so". A stopped clock is right twice a day etc. The housing market in the UK is built on shaky foundations. Predicting collapse is not a matter of if but when, and for most people, the when is far more pertinent. Waiting 16 years is hardly some sort of victory to boast about. If I'd known it would have taken another 12 years in 2008 I would have bought then. If covid does result in a HPC, I doubt whether to many long term posters on this site it will feel like much of a victory.
  13. The lower the number the shorter the resulting cut. It relates to the shield comb they put on the clippers. A #1 is pretty close to having it all cut off. I would say about a #4 is around the stage where if you go lower people start remarking whether you are AWOL or an escaped convict (but of course peoples reactions depend whether or not you have had the cut before, whether you are going from a previous long to short style, or doing it because you are folically challenged rather than through choice, where people tend to be less rude out of sympathy). Most people react pretty negatively to mine because I go from a state where I have a ton of hair to a state where I have hardly any. If they go for a #1 you won't have much hair sticking up, because you won't have much hair full stop.
  14. Thing is, what caused the crash in 1990 ? My guess is that it was a combination of high interest rates plus a large number of people losing their jobs. In other words people unable to service housing debts and being forced out. You have to ask yourself from experience whether this is likely to happen now. Firstly, the government never wants to kick people out their houses, because it makes bad press. Plus, they only have to be housed again somewhere in social housing, of which there is none. So the likelyhood is that come an inability to pay, there is more likely to be payment holidays and mortgage support than have people turfed out on the streets. I think we are more likely to see stagnation. There will be a small number of people that have to sell. Probably matched by a small number of people that have the ability to buy. What I would like to see is that rather than the government paying your mortgage it actually takes an equity stake in the house that has to be repaid back in the future. For me their has been too much gifting of cash via schemes like SMI in the past, that everyone (including renters) has had to pay for. Doing things like this will act to dampen the market and should hopefully bring prices down long term rather than crashing them.
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