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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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HOLA441
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HOLA442
50 minutes ago, rollover said:

I think experts in the White House take it step by step, explain Trump to keep the US closed by Easter is big success right now.

The high-speed of spreading coronavirus in US right now is staggering.

 

 

I wonder IF and how quickly we will see the mortality rate in the US reach the high siingle digit percentage rates currently being seen in Europe.  After all IF the Europeans with their supposedly slightly better diets/lifetsyles still get hammered by this thing......then what on earth will be the result when it starts to make its presence felt among an obese nation, high cholesterol, diabetes, etc.

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HOLA443
2 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I've 10 litres of 3% Hydrogen Peroxide and 4 litres of Isopropanol, plus loads of bleach. 

Isopropanol is good, you can spray fabrics without damage and also I use it for keyboards and TV remotes.  They seem to withstand a light spay from a distance.  Just watch out for the fire hazard though.

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HOLA445
2 minutes ago, kzb said:

Isopropanol is good, you can spray fabrics without damage and also I use it for keyboards and TV remotes.  They seem to withstand a light spay from a distance.  Just watch out for the fire hazard though.

And keep the rooms well ventilated......or you will be as high as kite very quickly - if not dead!

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HOLA446
Just now, anonguest said:

And keep the rooms well ventilated......or you will be as high as kite very quickly - if not dead!

Yes good advice !  I really would not advise spraying more than a very small quantity indoors.

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3 minutes ago, kzb said:

Isopropanol is good, you can spray fabrics without damage and also I use it for keyboards and TV remotes.  They seem to withstand a light spay from a distance.  Just watch out for the fire hazard though.

Can you spray fresh food with it? Seen Americans say they are spraying food with Lysol.

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HOLA448
47 minutes ago, Andy T said:

Hmm... give a grand to the well off, financially secure, and those with good pensions - why?  so the poor/middle have to pay it all back in taxes in years to come?

And of course, most people would moan ' I can't live on a grand! '

Sticking to the means tested/workers out of work method seems sensible to me.

It's simple to do unlike the current plans which almost inevitably will result in an almighty mess. Just think of the mental health issues arising from millions of people trying to submit their UC claim. Already there are stories of people with no job/money hanging on the UC helpline for hour after hour and then the line goes dead, repeat 5 or 10 times and they won't be in a good place. 

Paying everyone (say adult 1,000 child £300 a month) would be simpler to administer and if you make it taxable you would immediately get 40-45% back from the "rich", you could also give people the option of not accepting the handout.   

The poor and even much of the middle won't be paying anything back as only the top 30ish% actually pay in enough to cover the services they receive.     

Edited by Confusion of VIs
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HOLA449
13 minutes ago, kzb said:

Isopropanol is good, you can spray fabrics without damage and also I use it for keyboards and TV remotes.  They seem to withstand a light spay from a distance.  Just watch out for the fire hazard though.

Also don't inhale!

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HOLA4410
6 minutes ago, ticket2ride said:

Can you spray fresh food with it? Seen Americans say they are spraying food with Lysol.

I think yes possibly you could spray non-porous items.  Let it evaporate totally before eating.  But Lysol ?!  It will taste of disinfectant I wouldn't do that !

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HOLA4411
8 minutes ago, ticket2ride said:

Can you spray fresh food with it? Seen Americans say they are spraying food with Lysol.

I wouldn't recommend that: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK493181/

Might not kill you, but not great. especially if drink wine/vodka with it.

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HOLA4412
19 minutes ago, ticket2ride said:

How long will virus survive on fresh food?

Probably varies a lot.  It won't survive cooking.  Also do bear in mind it is a respiratory virus, I don't think you can catch it by eating it.

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HOLA4414
24 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

He seemed to suggest that Self employed will be paying NI in the future

And so they should, the whole tax code needs simplifying.

It's the people in the middle and upper middle who pay everything.

The very top and the bottom contribute very little in taxes overall.

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HOLA4417
8 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Hydrogen peroxide should be ok it is widely used in the food industry, and even in toothpaste.

Yes that won't affect the taste and, and will be destroyed by cooking.

Really, before all this started, I read that enveloped viruses were easy to kill.  Both CV and flu are enveloped viruses, and they are supposed to be killed even by detergents and soap.  I hope CV IS killed by detergent otherwise the less-than 60 degrees laundry programmes will be ineffective.

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HOLA4418
13 minutes ago, kzb said:

Probably varies a lot.  It won't survive cooking.  Also do bear in mind it is a respiratory virus, I don't think you can catch it by eating it.

Fecal-Oral route is a method of infection, so maybe you can

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HOLA4419
17 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

Boris has tested positive.

As I wrote the other day, in response to various high profile people testing positive, it's obvious that this is now de facto 'everywhere' AND, as that Prof from Imperial College alluded to, it must have actuall y been around/with us since much earlier iin the year - which suggests to me that either/both the average symptom free incubation time is longer than 14 days and it is much more easily transmitted than standard theory would dictate (e.g. survives longer than usual outside a host).

I also mentioned the interestng situation of political leaders getting it.

I reckon it could be a double edged sword.

Either they get it really bad, even die, which will reinvigorate public panic and tougher public policy response (after all if the great and the good ar enot immune then what of me?....)

OR

They get lucky and have it really mild and then because they are mostly not of the highest intellectual calibre or scientifically inclined will, despite the pleadings of their acience advisors, start to think a la Trump - that 'hey, this coronavirus aint a big deal after all' and we can lift these lockdowns.......then leading to catastrophic loss of life in the follwoing weeks/months???

Edited by anonguest
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HOLA4421
5 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Fecal-Oral route is a method of infection, so maybe you can

Or is the route actually faecal -> hands -> eyes/nose ?

Also there is a faecal aerosol when the toilet is flushed, that is inhalable.

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HOLA4422
1 minute ago, kzb said:

Or is the route actually faecal -> hands -> eyes/nose ?

Also there is a faecal aerosol when the toilet is flushed, that is inhalable.

Shit to mouth, I believe.  NHS guidelines say stools should be regarded as potentially infectious. So no snacking.

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HOLA4423
5 minutes ago, kzb said:

Or is the route actually faecal -> hands -> eyes/nose ?

Also there is a faecal aerosol when the toilet is flushed, that is inhalable.

I remember early into this hearing that people in the same apartment block in Asia got it from faecel particles in the shared sewage system coming out of the toilets when they flushed. I have since made sure I flush with the toilet seat closed every time.

Edited by GeordieAndy
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HOLA4424
36 minutes ago, anonguest said:

I wonder IF and how quickly we will see the mortality rate in the US reach the high siingle digit percentage rates currently being seen in Europe.  After all IF the Europeans with their supposedly slightly better diets/lifetsyles still get hammered by this thing......then what on earth will be the result when it starts to make its presence felt among an obese nation, high cholesterol, diabetes, etc.

Comparing US to Europe, the healthcare system will be big factor too.

My guess is the US is going to start leading the mortality statistics at the end of next week or beginning of the week after.

They are going to pass 100,000 confirmed cases today or early tomorrow.

 

 

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