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slawek

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  1. I am not sure what is your point here. 1) As the world is old fighting sides in all conflicts were boasting about their successes and silent about their defeats. That is the way it was, is and will be. All to keep morale high. 2) All nations have some skeletons in wardrobe, including Brits. 3) In all armies there are far-right, Nazis nutters. There is no revelation in that. Nothing of that in any way changes the fact that Ukraine was invaded and Russia wants to using brutal force illegally grab its territory against the will of people living there, killing them and abusing in any way possible in the process. So there is no doubt that Ukraine has any right to defend itself and we are have moral right to help them.
  2. You sign a trade deal with the EU as a whole. You can't change law of physics. The UK is located close to the EU and some products can't be imported from further away. The UK imports as % of GDP were going up before the UK joined EEC. Non-EU imports have been going up more than EU imports recently. The problem is that the UK economy has become more service based. It has lost most of its manufacturing capacity due to globalisation and mismanagement.
  3. The EU is the UK biggest trading partner. NZ and Aus trade deals won't make much difference. You are living in a fantasy world.
  4. The UK is on a course to have no trade deal with the US and the EU, 2/3 of its foreign trade.
  5. They also think that NIP provides appropriate means to implement Brexit. A smart border is still a border. Nothing stops the UK implementing it between NI and GBP. I believe that people of NI should make a decision where they want to a border to be, NI/Roi or NI/GBP. So far they prefer a NI/RoI border otherwise they would vote for DUP.
  6. NIP is the will of people in the UK (Boris was elected based on it) and in NI (DUP lost being against it). There is no democratic mandate to abolish it fully or partially. If you don't like it win the next election campaigning against NIP. People in NI want NIP
  7. No theory has any explanatory power. They are just models capturing a very simplifying version of the reality. They create some objects theory on works (space, time, energy, force etc) , constraints among them (laws) that match reality and use some generic framework (logic, maths) to infer derived results (theory predictions like body trajectories). The Ptolemy theory wasn't perfect but it worked for what it was used, just like any other theory e.g. Newton mechanic. The initial Sun-center model wasn't more accurate than the Earth centered. In GR there is no preferred frame of reference. There is no physical reason to choose one attached to Earth vs one attached to Sun. The only difference is practicality, in one of them calculations might be easier. One example doesn't prove your claim that all economic models are wrong. I agree that BoE modelling is rubbish and that was the point I was making in my post starting this conversation. They are paid huge salaried but have no much clue what they are doing. They are useless bureaucrats whose main skill is getting promoted and hiding their incompetence.
  8. They were. They were correctly predicting movements of planets. Their model was only more complicated than needed as they were doing it from a reference frame of an observer on Earth. It all depends on a language you use to describe physical reality. The symmetry and conservation law correspondence is just a result of a langragian way to describe reality. A local spacetime symmetry with regard to translation/boost could be just an approximation and it is broken but we don't know it yet. In the quantum mechanic conservation of an energy/momentum vector can be violated but it is not observable. You can create a money conservation law but you need to add creation/destruction source. I agree economic models are still quite primitive but they are models and have some value. There are no models which are 100% correct, even in physics. There are other problems with BS model than an assumption that prices are continuous.
  9. Not true. Planet do not move in elliptical orbits. It is only an approximation. Augustinians were correct too. They just used a different reference frame. It is all relative. The Newtonian law is only an approximation. If you use a more precise model like GR the calculations are more difficult. I am not sure there is an analytical solution. GR is also an approximation. It breaks on a very low scale and most likely it misses something as there are things we can't explain using it. Economics models are falsifiable in the same way as models in physics. If an economic model predicts a value as X with some sigma and you observe the actual value being a few times sigma away from the expected then you can say the model is incorrect.
  10. Such laws are just examples of many ways describing reality. They are valid within specific frameworks of reality. For an example in GR there is no inertia, bodies just move along geodesics. It all depends what "language" you use. There are laws, e.g. Saving = Investment in national accounts. There is no physical model that describes fully the reality. Each model is just a simplification of the reality. The same is true with models in economics. They are not fully correct but they are not completely wrong either.
  11. Energy contributes around 35-50% depending how you measure it. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/april2022 https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/contributionstothe12monthrateofcpihbyimportintensityapril2022
  12. Neither economics and medicine are mathematically rigorous fields. CBs were using some rules to drive their policies in order to achieve inflation and economic stability goals. The IRs were going down partially due to demographic, older and not growing so fast populations. Another reason was self-reinforcing of low rates, liquidity trap. Read the paper I posted early.
  13. What people produce is more expensive, so they can be paid more money. Money debasement.
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