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slawek

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  1. Another QE will devalue pound by another 10-20% and makes us all poorer.
  2. I don't believe TM will come up with any sensible plan B. She will try to gather more support for her WA running the clock. Corbyn will have a choice to either go with the TM's WA or cancel Brexit if he wants to avoid no deal scenario. Both are bad outcomes for him. The 2nd ref is the only escape route for him. However I am not sure there is enough MPs to support it at the moment, he needs all opposition plus some Tories. ERG itself might not be enough to get TM's WA through the parliament. It is going to be a very close vote. If TM fails the second time there won't be enough time to do anything but cancel Brexit. I still think it is going to be a big drama in the last seconds before the deadline.
  3. Farage, a fighter against elites, can't even remember how much he paid for a private plane.
  4. This seems to be the most popular comprise. Unfortunately TM decided to prioritise her party and her position over the country. Acceptable Bad Not sure No deal 32 52 16 MT's deal 25 43 22 SM and CU (Norway+) 48 27 25 2nd ref and staying in EU 44 41 15 https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4ovmboa1iw/Internal_190108_Brexit_web.pdf
  5. It is not one poll. It is consistent an increasing lead of Remain. See the graph below. Clinton's lead in polls was 3-4%, too low to claim a victory with 99%, especially when you take into account that the election system is indirect. Polls for the 2017 UK election were showing 4-5% Con lead with quickly raising support for Lab, the election day lead was 2.5%. The current Remain lead around 7-8% is statistically significant. What is more important, it is increasing. The British public has moved on and it doesn't want to leave the EU.
  6. Since 1983 there was no majority for leaving the EU until a brief period between 2011-13, so there was no reason have a referendum. I disagree with you that the next referendum should be delayed until the previous is enacted if there is clear shift of the public public to stay in the EU. Democratic process should reflect what people want now not what they wanted, that is the whole point of democracy. Otherwise "fake democracy" is becoming a tool of a minority to control the majority.
  7. As you can see below the polls before the referendum showed a virtual tie with rising number of Leavers. The results of the referendum were therefore consistent with the polls. Polls after the referendum were initially showing a few percent lead of Leavers, which has gradually declined, and now Remainers have 5-10% lead. I think you are confusing opinion polls with economic predictions. Opinion polls give you an estimation of the people's views with a few percent error margin. It is all based on mathematical methods. As of now they tell us that most of British want to stay in the EU. Economic predictions are more or less educated guesses.
  8. There is small majority to stay in the EU at the moment.
  9. Protect yourself as much as you can and "enjoy" the show. The good thing is that episodes of insanity are also catharsis moments. The harder is Brexit the quicker people start to come to their minds.
  10. It looks like we are heading directly in the cliff direction now, thanks to the May's chicken game with MPs. Buckle up. As predicted, the big drama at the end, a real suspense story. Will insane politicians at the wheel turn back at the last moment, or just drive the UK into abyss? The best Brexit of all is no Brexit at all. (borrowed from a guy from the Guardian's comment section)
  11. She was upset for calling her nebulous. I am surprised TM is so sensitive, she has been called much worse.
  12. I also think that 'no-deal' should be an option on the 2nd ref ballot paper. I see three options: no-deal, TM's deal, remain. People made this mess, they need to take responsibility for it. I think it is now much clearer what the choices are, not like the previous ref when the level of debate was appalling and some treated it as a protest vote not really thinking of consequences.
  13. Remain 11% lead over Leave in the latest Yougov poll https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/yu4cnevthm/TheTimes_181204_VI_Trackers_bpc_w.pdf
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