2022 Predictions

[Confusion of VIs]

On 16/12/2021 at 08:55, winkie said:

What about predicting something you don't want to happen......

Some numpties keep on buying ICEs

[14stFlyer]

On 12/15/2021 at 7:57 PM, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

- House Prices  DOWN ( in real terms) 

- Asset Prices DOWN (in real terms)  

- Inflation  YES  LOTS OF IT

- The Economy HUGE DIP FOR OMICRON THEN REBOUND LATER IN YEAR TO END FLAT

- Politics  SADLY I THINK JOHNSON WILL SURVIVE

- COVID  SERIOUS CHAOS AT START OF YEAR QUICKLY DISSIPATES. THEN WE FINALLY START LOOKING AHEAD.  

- Scientific Breakthroughs  CHEAP DESALINATION OF WATER  

- New Technology  SELF VACCINATION JABBER

- Fashion Trends  SMART SHORTS 

- Brexit (added at Monsieur's request)  RAPPROCHEMENT WILL ONLY START WHN JOHNSON AND MACRON HAVE GONE  

 

 

[Trampa501]

I think we're going to see huge currency fluctuations in 2022, and situations where countries default that we wouldn't normally expect - possibly including the UK.

Here, certain industries will continue to prosper eg pharma, web services, financial gambling etc. Others like farming, fishing and certain tourist sectors will continue to shed loads.

[anonguest]

Here's my tuppence worth.....

- House Prices:  will actually, contrary to majority expectations, level off and show no real increase overall by year end (there may of course, as always, be isolated pockets where prices diverge from this noticeably)

- Asset Prices:   equity markets will have a bumpy up and down year ending marginally unchanged, with a downward bias (i.e. major indexes globally down a few percent at worst, on average, but unlikely to end up - and IF they do not by an amount of any consequence). Price of gold and oil will end the year up.

- Inflation:  TPTB will again adjust how the CPI is calculated so that it officially shows no further significant increases or even prices coming down - and the compliant, unthinking, media will write the usual puff pieces with ever more contorted logic to justify the changes.  BUT of course in the real world everything will go up by at least mid-single digit percentages, e.g. council tax, road tax, etc.

- The Economy:  Unemployment will rise noticeably.

- Politics:  Joe Biden will not last till the end of the year as president.  The Democrats will suffer seriously at any/all electoral opportunities. In the UK Starmer will likely face as much leadership threat as Boris.

- COVID:  Will continue to kill old people regardless of boosters AND the wider public will finally accept this as a new fact of life and quit cooperating with wider socio-economic restrictions - often in anger (e.g. masks simply won't be worn anymore by the majority even in places where a requirement may still exist).

- Scientific Breakthroughs:  Following the launch of the JWST (Hubble replacement) astronomers will finally discover a true Earth like exoplanet with probably habitable atmosphere. Elon Musk will announce a venture to get there.

- New Technology:  Solid state batteries will finally start to make a meaningful commercial appearance on the scene (to begin the long journey towards competing with Li-Ion).

- Fashion Trends:  Stockings and suspenders, as everyday wear for women, will make a come back. Well a guy can dream can't he?!  😁 LOL

- Brexit (added at Monsieur's request):  Remainers will continue to slowly 'disappear' from the political scene and become increasingly silent as the Eurozone suffers it's own socio-economic and foreign policy turmoil and woes.

Edited December 19, 2021 by anonguest

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

On 12/15/2021 at 7:57 PM, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I decided to bring back the HPC tradition of predictions for the coming year.

What do you think will happen in 2022?

For example in:

- House Prices

- Asset Prices

- Inflation

- The Economy 

- Politics

- COVID

- Scientific Breakthroughs

- New Technology

- Fashion Trends

- Brexit (added at Monsieur's request)

 

- House Prices

Up 6%

- Asset Prices

Up 10%

- Inflation

Up 5%

- The Economy 

More furlough and bailouts for travel and ents, but economy shrinks. 

- Politics

BoJo clown and his circus of fools replaced.

- COVID

Omnicron dominate for the next 9 months then replaced with new deadlier strain. 

- Scientific Breakthroughs

A cure for anti-vaxx stupidity discovered. 

- New Technology

Further advances in blockchain technology. 

- Fashion Trends

Bell bottoms return.

- Brexit (added at Monsieur's request)

Continued Brex_hit shTshow while the aplogist clowns that voted for it still in denial . (Thanks for adding BTW.)

[Pmax2020]

1) House prices will roll back to early 2020 levels. (5-10% fall on this summers daft peak).

2) SNP will keep up the BS on indyref2 they aren’t interested in. Sadly.

3) Boris to go in Q1. Rishi to take the hot seat.

4) Wetherspoons will go bust.

5) I’ll move to a banging rural retreat in Kinross-shire 😁

 

[Dweller]

1 hour ago, Pmax2020 said:

1) House prices will roll back to early 2020 levels. (5-10% fall on this summers daft peak).

 

 

I will never get the whole 5 - 10% taking house prices back to 2020 levels. 

As I have said so many times, we search Nth Wales over to Cheshire and down to Cornwall (taking in Shropshire/Herfordshire etc) and properties that were £220,000 earlier this year are all £290,000 + still with multiple viewings and bids on anything half decent. 

It would take a 25% drop to take all the properties (which were FTB homes) that we look at every single day,  to where they were at end of 2020 early 2021 . 

As for predictions is it possible that 2022 will be the year that people start to wake up to the fact that the vaccines  are not stopping transmission and that for most  people severe disease was never very likely?? Maybe this will take until 2024 !! 

It has been known for years that the flu vaccine barely lasts 3 months and even then is only 40% effective. Most people who had the vaccine in September by the time they caught flu the vaccine had zero effectiveness but it seems that people just don't care! 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Dweller

[MarkD]

Craig Hamilton Parker (Psychic bloke) predicts house prices in Australia 🇦🇺 will crash toward the end of next year. Can’t say I’m surprised, the price of a standard poorly built 4x2 is eye watering. Wages aren’t that great, and Australia 🇦🇺 is pulling away from China 🇨🇳.Parties 🎉 over! 

[rollover]

Conservative Party infighting will intensify, and there will be discord about Tories core values and who will replace Boris.

Edited December 19, 2021 by rollover

[Pmax2020]

10 hours ago, Dweller said:

IAs for predictions is it possible that 2022 will be the year that people start to wake up to the fact that the vaccines  are not stopping transmission and that for most  people severe disease was never very likely?? Maybe this will take until 2024 !! 

It has been known for years that the flu vaccine barely lasts 3 months and even then is only 40% effective. Most people who had the vaccine in September by the time they caught flu the vaccine had zero effectiveness but it seems that people just don't care! 

Sigh. Vaccinations don’t need to stop transmission.

Yawn. A vaccine lasting 3 months is handy when it’s a new, highly infectious virus we still don’t know much about.

*starts to bang head off wall*

If you have children or plan on having any, will you refuse to give them any vaccines?

[markyh]

16 hours ago, Trampa501 said:

I think we're going to see huge currency fluctuations in 2022, and situations where countries default that we wouldn't normally expect - possibly including the UK.

Here, certain industries will continue to prosper eg pharma, web services, financial gambling etc. Others like farming, fishing and certain tourist sectors will continue to shed loads.

We can never default, we own our own currency like the USA, we can issue as much as we need to p[ay bills at will. 

[anonguest]

2 hours ago, markyh said:

We can never default, we own our own currency like the USA, we can issue as much as we need to p[ay bills at will. 

All countries OWN their own currencies.  Every country in the world that has ever defaulted on their debts/obligations has owned and controlled the production of their own currency - even more so in the post-Bretton Woods era.  The attitude of being able to issue 'as much as we need' has been the problem that gets all countries into their problems in the first place.

Edited December 19, 2021 by anonguest

[Timm]

Devastating snowstorms

Economic boom.

Very high inflation / hyperinflation.

Vast improvement in energy storage capability (solid state batteries?)

Explosion in plastic recycling (microbes, roads)

Loss of UK territory.

Further rise of extreme politics, but elections won in the middle.

Social decadence and hedonism.

Rise of new communication IT (metaverse, or something else?)

Paradigm shift in global affairs. Not sure what, but major state failure in scale.

New Russian / Chinese / N.Korea leader.

Increased wealth disparity.

Use of Lethal autonomous weapons.

[Big Orange]

8 minutes ago, Timm said:

Paradigm shift in global affairs. Not sure what, but major state failure in scale.

Fall of Chinese Communist regime, Russian separatism/civil war, and USA dissolving seem much more plausible to me now, but perhaps still years or even over a decade away.

More likely we'll get big shufflings in Egypt, Brazil, Nigeria, and Turkey next year onwards, with open civil wars breaking out in Ethiopia, South Africa, and Venezuela.

[markyh]

54 minutes ago, anonguest said:

All countries OWN their own currencies.  Every country in the world that has ever defaulted on their debts/obligations has owned and controlled the production of their own currency - even more so in the post-Bretton Woods era.  The attitude of being able to issue 'as much as we need' has been the problem that gets all countries into their problems in the first place.

None of the Eurozone own the Euro, All countries using the USD like Paraguay dont own their own currency. Please explain how France can print more Euro's if it needs to. 

UK can always pay all its bills, especially domestic, just print more GBP .  

[coypondboy]

President Xi decides to confiscate all property in Hong Kong for his buddies and causes mass emigration to UK of 3 million HK Chinese and 150k brits working out there as the financial centre is moved to Shanghai. 

The people smugglers have got their hands on some French fishing trawlers with the help of french fisherman annoyed they did not get those last 32 licences and Lord Frost's replacement (Lord Peter Lilley) is even tougher as he hates the french and the EU. The refugees in France start coming over at a rate of 10k a day and the home secreatary creates a camp site on the isle of wight to house them.

Putin invades Ukraine mass movement of ukranians to europe with many heading for UK as they can speak english and have family/friends already working in hospitality illegally and living 15 to a bed in shed vacated by east europeans who went home.

BOJO has a third child with princess nut nuts (needs the time off on paternity leave at the end of another tough leave) and manages to get pupternity time through parliament so he can have a few more days away as dillon geta a new brother called matt (princess nut nuts favourite actor).

New strain which the UK call Xivariant due to his actions over Hong Kong brought in from a Hong Kong escapee is deadlier than Delta and Omincrom due to its mix with SAR'S/Bird Flu.  BOJO leaves it too late again as he wants England to win the world cup in Qatar and feels it would be unfair to shut pubs showing the games.

Christmas cancelled again as hospitalisations hit 10k a day and deaths 2000 a day (mostly unvacinated Londoners from ethnic minorities) as UK only country in europe not having compulsory vacinations due to political correctness could be deemed racist for trying to do so.

N Ireland secterian rioting due to DUP bringing down stormont and elections bringing a majority Sinn Fein win and push for a united ireland referndum in 2023 similar to the one scotland are having also in 2023.

Interest rates reach 3% by the end of the year as inflation worse than predicted.  Thousands of repossessions forecast to hit market in 2023 along with thousands of leaseholders evicted from their homes under the forfeiture of lease rules as service charges of tens of thousands go unpaid to fix fire safety issues and to meet the new PAS9980 rules coming in 2023.

Hopefull that has cheered everybody up enjoy christmas this year as next year will be a bumpy one on many fronts

 

 

 

[winkie]

21 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Some numpties keep on buying ICEs

Yes ones that already exist and work perfectly...... waste not want not, help save the planet by recycling.

[anonguest]

1 hour ago, markyh said:

None of the Eurozone own the Euro,

They collectively own it.

1 hour ago, markyh said:

All countries using the USD like Paraguay dont own their own currency.

Not so.

https://manifold.bfi.uchicago.edu/read/discussion-of-the-case-of-paraguay-neumeyer/section/35a1b642-26cd-4404-84b9-84d522b91c1f

And, you will note, even when fixed to the dollar it suffered badly:

"Despite the fixed exchange rate, Paraguay suffered two bouts of inflation during this period. These bouts of inflation were the result of real shocks accommodated by the monetary dynamics inherent in fixed exchange rate regimes. "

"....Paraguay adopted a monetary based stabilization plan with a floating exchange rate......Starting in 1998, fiscal profligacy once again challenged monetary stability......This led Paraguay to miss payments on its foreign debt....."

1 hour ago, markyh said:

Please explain how France can print more Euro's if it needs to. 

The ECB has been freely printing money for years now to accomodate the needs of all it's various constituent countries - with the selfish aim of keeping the EU project going at all costs.  So whilst France cannot print money 'instantly', as say the UK or the Us could in  theory do, the fact is that any 'delay' in much needed money will more likely than anything not be consequential.

1 hour ago, markyh said:

UK can always pay all its bills, especially domestic, just print more GBP .  

Indeed it can.  And that has worked out really well for alll other countries that have ever tried it.  Ask yourself this - IF it's so easy why haven't 'we' done it before? (some might arugue we came close to doing that in the 70's though)

[Dweller]

7 hours ago, Pmax2020 said:

If you have children or plan on having any, will you refuse to give them any vaccines?

None of my children ever had vaccines and neither have their children until now. My eldest daughter in France has been forced to get  vaccinated (just couldn't fight the system any longer ) and therefore her children have now been vaccinated. Youngest in Ireland is still fighting for the right to choose for her family (3 children) . 

[skinnylattej]

5 hours ago, coypondboy said:

 

The people smugglers have got their hands on some French fishing trawlers with the help of french fisherman annoyed they did not get those last 32 licences and Lord Frost's replacement (Lord Peter Lilley) is even tougher as he hates the french and the EU. The refugees in France start coming over at a rate of 10k a day and the home secreatary creates a camp site on the isle of wight to house them.

 

You will upset Byron78!

[hughjass]

The Govt will say inflationiantivaxxers is 5% but for mortals the ratewill be 15% plus. 

More civil unrest from the Antivaxxers

Foodbanks will  become very popular

Bitcoin will crash after a cyber attack from China.

House prices will tank by 15% 

BT will be taken over by the French.

 

[PeanutButter]

2 hours ago, Dweller said:

None of my children ever had vaccines and neither have their children until now. My eldest daughter in France has been forced to get  vaccinated (just couldn't fight the system any longer ) and therefore her children have now been vaccinated. Youngest in Ireland is still fighting for the right to choose for her family (3 children) . 

Why not? Are you orthodox Jewish? 

[anonguest]

Just now, PeanutButter said:

Why not? Are you orthodox Jewish? 

And IF he is? So what of it?

[PeanutButter]

14 minutes ago, anonguest said:

And IF he is? So what of it?

  You do realise that this is a free, anonymous internet forum of long-standing, based around the premise that house prices may/should/could/won't crash and that bar blatant hate criming/off topic we are allowed to type anything we want?

Or are you suddenly the internet police?

I always find it hilarious when so-called freedomers find That One Thing* they don't want people to be free to question.

 

 

 

* It's often more than one thing. 

 

 

[anonguest]

Just now, PeanutButter said:

  You do realise that this is a free, anonymous internet forum of long-standing, based around the premise that house prices may/should/could/won't crash and that bar blatant hate criming/off topic we are allowed to type anything we want?

Or are you suddenly the internet police?

I always find it hilarious when so-called freedomers find That One Thing* they don't want people to be free to question.

 

 

* It's often more than one thing. 

 

 

What on earth has any of that diatribe got to do with me simply querying your comment? Where you responded to someone (Dweller) stating that his children had not been vaccinated - questioning whether this was because they were orthodox jewish.

I have absolutely no problem with you posting the question - and fail to see how my counter question is not valid. Please explain to me what that persons religion has to do with the matter?

IF I am unaware of some issue surrounding this, that explains your queying comment, then I welcome being enlightened.

Edited December 19, 2021 by anonguest