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Everything posted by Dweller

  1. Spot on no wonder he was "pissed off" with what is happening. Now, just in case ALL of that wasn't sufficient, this government is giving kids one vaccine dose (as two doses are more of a worry re adverse reactions) just enough vaccine to provide a weak immune response and again give the virus a chance to mutate its way around the current vaccines. Don't get me wrong , I am NOT advocating 2 vaccines, I am with the JCVI /WHO and others in leaving kids with natural immunity which has now been shown to provide a better/broad based immunity than a vaccine targeting one specific protein. Trouble is the government don't want to hear this because so much is now invested in herd immunity via vaccine , the epidemiologists and others can only stand by and wait for the government to WAKE UP and then start to WAKE UP the people to the FACT that herd immunity wont work so no point vaccinating the masses who were never at risk from hospitalisation /death. This is what Prof Pollard was trying to say weeks ago when he said that the government need to stop designing the vaccine prog around herd immunity , but this lot wont listen until there is a variant sweeping through the vaccinated :O( : https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1425086490002997248?lang=en
  2. Tory MP on the TV today speaking about a variant that finds its way around the vaccine (more so than Delta) would see the whole country go back into lockdown. Of course the epidemiologists have been warning about the dangers of mass vaccination in the face of high infection and variants . it has been amazing that the vaccine to date has reduced hospitalisation/death but there was always the Q of for how long? So I have been asking for months what would happen if there is another large scale lockdown? Can there be any more money printing to stop the whole economy collapsing? More furlough? More stamp duty holidays ? And what would be the answer this time if the vaccine egg basket that all the eggs were put in hasn't provided the solution? Not easy questions, no easy answers.
  3. The thing is that 'drag' is going to take some dragging isn't it when EAs value properties on what everyone else has got their house on for in a particular area. EAs recently put £30,000 on the top of the £250,000 value a couple of months ago which was already £30,000 over what the property would have gone for earlier this year (let alone last year)! They did this to try to limit the bidding wars which were resulting in EAs having to do block viewings over 3 days and then have best offers by the Friday or whatever. They reckoned that putting an additional £30,000 on the value would limit the number of viewings but not sure it has, anything half decent still has multiple viewings even with two stamp duty holidays coming and going. I guess it must be a supply issue but presumably £60,000 over the 2019 /20 value is going to take quite a while to come back down.
  4. Yet surely on HPC the message this year has been that property wont come down any time soon because of low stock and high demand and low interest rates? I get so confused. When we first put our property on the market at the end of 2019 the EA said the market had been depressed for years and that anything over £230,000 was hard to shift. Now properties that were £220,000 in 2020 and need EVERYTHING doing to them are on for £280,000 and going STC in a week . I can see that there is still low stock and high demand and I would imagine that whilst EAs recently have added a further £30,000 onto properties already £30,000 + 2020 values (in order to cut down on the number of people in bidding wars) I can't see the £60,000 coming off as easily and as quickly as it went on. EAs rarely go "OK this one is on for £280,000 and its just like yours so lets try yours at £260,000" ! I know markets can be volatile. I remember in 2016 property around us going from £190,000 to £185,000 all the way down to £172,000, then within 18 months someone who bought one of the houses for £172,000 sold for £235,000 having done nothing to the property. So yes I can see that many brought their purchase forward to benefit from SD holiday so then there is the Q as to whether the demand still there. However, from what we are seeing the answer is YES but maybe it does start to slow now but as EAs value properties from what else is on the market it is hard to see how the £60,000 inflation ends until the properties STOP selling for the asking and for that to happen there needs to be a lot less people after them .
  5. Hi - we were living in quite a nice courtyard of properties in Somerset looking over a field with horses/llamas. Then they built a housing estate which wasn't great but would have been OK if they had been sold on the open market with diverse buyers. Instead the developer sold the whole lot to housing association so 16 social housing families moved in overnight. The way the development was built meant the whole estate was virtually in our tiny back garden along with the play space. So we saw a property in Wales that was being built and decided to go for it. However, our property sold before the Wales property had even really started and when the searches came back there was natural ground instability/ground instability due to possible tin mine + landslides! Meanwhile property prices shot up and the developer wanted to pull the property and thwack on a further £30,000. Thus we are still living in a caravan in Wales that was supposed to only be a winter let or last winter. Luckily the owner has allowed us to stay on whist we find a property but by this point the goodwill is beginning to run out!
  6. Wish that was true but we simply don't even get to view most properties as the agents let us know on the day we are due to view that they already have bids over the already inflated asking. Or we go to view and get outbid as they are final offers on the Friday or whatever.
  7. Again the areas we are looking in Wales down to Gloucestershire down to Wiltshire/Somerset /Devon etc 18% wouldn't bring the properties to where they were last year :O( They are ALL up 20% within the past few months and still selling like hot cakes. This is another wonderful example of what we are up against. Bought in Feb this year for £230,000 done nothing to it, STC within 10 days at £260,000! https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/111588518#/?channel=RES_BUY
  8. EVERYTHING we phone up about still has bidding wars even though the properties are already £50,000 + over what the value 2020 and early 2021. I guess if people are selling for £50,000 more then they can afford £50,000 + more but does the market need FTB because at the level we are looking these £280,000 properties at £220,000 (in 2019) were first time buyers homes.
  9. WHERE is this happening. Every day I trawl through properties on the market for £50,000 more than they would have been at the start of this year let alone last year! TOTALLY depressing as they go STC within a week. OK if you are selling this market but we sold in the old market and been stuck since. Wish I could believe this would translate into £50,000 coming off but can't see it happening when there are so few properties and so many people after them.
  10. Can't see how this translates on the ground. Prices in the areas we are looking are still up up and up! House in say Radstock (Somerset) 2020 value £220,000 tops (done up) now selling (yes selling) at £280,000 with multiple viewings and their crappy ! This one came on this week :O( https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/113432912#/?channel=RES_BUY As you can see along that terrace £220,000 would be a good price for a done up property and the one linked above needs EVERYTHING doing to it. This is the story everywhere we look and still they sell within 10 days. So where are these figures coming from when everything we might be interested in is still £50,000 + over what it would have sold for in 2020.
  11. A Q I wanted to ask was does the market need FTB? In 2019 we were told by an EA that anything over £230,000 was slow to shift. In April 2020 a developer said that £250,000 properties were slow to shift as they were out of the reach of FTB. Now ALL the properties we look at (Scotland/Wales/Yorkshire and all the counties down to Cornwall) are £50,000 + over what they would have been in 2020. So does a market need FTB? Or is it sufficient for everyone to just be buying each others properties at £50,000 + up on 2020 prices? The properties we look at were £20,000 + but then suddenly in the last couple of months they are £50,000 + . I think what EAs decided to do in order to cut down on the work of multiple viewings was just chuck an extra £30,000 on to weed out half the competition. Interesting to see that a lot of properties (when you look at the history) have had to wait this long to be able to get what people paid for them in 2006-2008 . Often the properties sold in the interim for £50,000 + less than 2008 but are now back up to where they were in 2008. Can't see this collapsing as easily as house prices have just shot up as I guess providing people are selling it makes not odds but assume it has priced out most of the FTB who can't get an additional £50,000 mortgage.
  12. Hi there - it's awful isn't it, heaven knows what the answer is. The thing is it isn't me saying this what would I know I am just looking at what Prof Pollard and the JCVI and others are saying about herd immunity not being a possibility given that the vaccinated can catch/carry the virus (shown to carry higher viral loads) and that trying to control a virus with a leaky vaccine during a pandemic (whilst infection rates are high ) isn't going to work thus Professor Adam Finn (previously quoted) saying last week : "It may mean that trying to stop the virus from circulating by immunising people is out of reach." And "over-vaccinating people, when other parts of the world had none, was a bit insane, it's not just inequitable, it's stupid". Or Prof Eleanor Riley (quoted in the BBC report re natural immunity offering broader protection) "We could be digging ourselves into a hole, for a very long time, where we think we can only keep Covid away by boosting every year" I was reading this today about risks of severe illness in children. One preprint study*, published on the medRxiv server, found that 251 young people aged under 18 in England were admitted to intensive care with Covid-19 during the first year of the pandemic (until the end of February 2021). The researchers, seeking to determine absolute risk, said this equated to young people of that age group in England having a one in approximately 50,000 chance of being admitted to intensive care with Covid-19 during that time. https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2021/jul/covid-19-risks-severe-illness-children-shown-be-very-low It doesn't say how many of these young people were more at risk due to underlying conditions but does say that such conditions do put children more at risk. So the thinking (JCVI etc) now seems to be that as herd immunity isn't possible as the vaccinated can catch/carry the virus (and the efficacy of the vaccine over time is dwindling) so trying to stay on top of an ever evolving virus via vaccines is unrealistic and expensive when for the vast majority of people who were never at risk natural immunity is sufficient. Of course Gov.Uk wont want to hear this when they have 475m vaccine doses on order to include 35m for boosters for the winter of 2022. Huge pressure on the JCVI Focus the vaccines on the vulnerable globally and developing better therapies for those who are sick. It would seem therefore that the risk/benefit equation for children is seen to be too great now that vaccinating them wont stop the spread of the virus . Then there is the whole question of giving precious vaccines to children who currently are not that at risk and boosters to those who have already had 2 vaccines when so many in the world haven't had one vaccine.
  13. Ah thanks for that and the explanation about what happened in April 2016. It is all so difficult to get a handle on and I know this has implications in oh so many ways for so many people but on a personal level I am just pulling my hair out trying to understand these things having got it SO wrong selling in October 2020 and losing the property we were going to buy and being stranded in a caravan with the property we were looking at having gone up £40,000 - £60,000! So in my usual completely confused fashion I am trying to understand if housing stock was down 50% but property sales were up 63% in June then why was the housing stock down or weren't those buying also selling? What am I missing here? So September could see more drops in buyers but that will mean more drops in properties yes and what will that mean ? I am thinking about buying a flat (without a garden) which at my age I REALLY don't want to do especially if things are likely to come down again any time soon, but I assume whilst it is easy for prices to go up and up and up based on EAs just looking at what is for sale then putting properties on to match, the journey down is very much slower because EA just look at what prices properties are on for and currently they are still selling within a week. Just REALLY don't want to get this wrong again having got this so horribly wrong the past year and now looking like I am going to end up living in a flat which is NOT what I sold for . I know I am lucky to be able to buy anything (when plenty can't even afford to rent) but it has been a tough year with sooo much regret for being sooo stupid selling before I bought but who could have predicted £40,000 - £60,000 house price increases on £220,000 properties!
  14. What happened after the last stamp duty cut?
  15. Do you think there will still be a backlog of people who wanted to move but couldn't afford or didn't want to engage in bidding wars who will continue to feed the market to some degree now that the madness of the SD surge is ending? I really don't understand markets. I don't understand how the agent said to us in 2019 that since 2016 (Brexit ) anything over £230,000 had been hard to sell yet here we are now with those £230,000 properties now being sold in days for £280,000 + ! I can see though that a 60% + surge in sales with a 50% decline in properties coming on the market is going to skew things somewhat but what I can't see is how the properties that have gone from £220,000 to £270,000 + now start to come down. That would surely take a whole lot more properties than buyers and interest rates starting to inch but as I say I have no idea why markets get depressed as the market apparently was from 2016 to March 2020 .
  16. It is interesting though to see how the messaging is slowly evolving starting with Professor Pollard (previously quoted and linked again here https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1425086490002997248?lang=en ) and the comments from the JCVI this week. So how long will it take the government/THE people to catch up with the fact that there is no use contd to use the vaccine prog to gain herd immunity now that the double vaccinated have been shown to catch/carry the virus? Do you think that THE people understand that the ONLY point of mass vaccination of those who were never at risk from the virus was to try to gain herd immunity via vaccine ? Do you think people understand that anyone under the age of 50 (without health problems) was never at risk from hospitalisation /death? Recently there was a reshuffle of the JCVI as they weren't in agreement with the government on vaccinating children. Last week they still didn't want to support vaccinating children and said re boosters that there are : " concerns about excessive focus on Covid jabs hampering public confidence in vaccination more generally" and "Giving booster doses is really getting a very marginal benefit in many cases . Asked about the latest research showing the current vaccines protect against severe disease but offer little protection against transmission Finn said: "It may mean that trying to stop the virus from circulating by immunising people is out of reach." I read the other day that research in the US previously showed 7% of people identifying as anti vaccine but a recent poll now had that figure at 40%. Many are saying that C19 vaccine has done more harm to vaccination than 25 years of anti-vax. Yesterday the BBC confirmed that natural immunity has of course been shown to provide a broader spectrum immunity against all variants than vaccinated induced immunity which is only linked to one protein and is not stopping the vaccinated catching /carrying the virus. (Shouldn't be a surprise really I am sure the epimediolgists were saying this fro the start). BBC yesterday : "We could be digging ourselves into a hole, for a very long time, where we think we can only keep Covid away by boosting every year," Prof Eleanor Riley, an immunologist from the University of Edinburgh, told me. Prof Adam Finn, a government vaccine adviser, said over-vaccinating people, when other parts of the world had none, was "a bit insane, it's not just inequitable, it's stupid". https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58270098?fbclid=IwAR1eTKMz_W0rP3fni3-EmmADpGL1GEMKRFqbYCa8gjl46r_Q95tOZlEXscE The government have a LOT invested in the perception of them being the saviours of THE people due to the vaccine. They are exerting a LOT of pressure on the JCVI over boosters and vaccinating children, after all their message for nearly a year has been that VACCINATION WILL SAVE THE WORLD. Now it turns out that : 1. herd immunity is not feasible as the vaccine doesn't stop the vaccinated catching/carrying the virus 2. the vast majority of people will get a broad spectrum immune response to all variants using their natural innate immune response rather than a vaccine that only targets one protein (thus the threat of variants continuing to get around the leaky vaccines ) 3. no point in vaccinating children or to be honest anyone under the age of 50 without underlying health conditions as they were never at threat from hospitalisation/death which apparently is all this vaccine is for now So how much pressure can the governments around the world /the donors /big pharma etc contd to exert when the data now confirms that vaccination for the vast majority of people (now that herd immunity via vaccine has been shown to not be feasible) doesn't make sense according to those who should know to include the Prof Pollard - Oxford vaccine group and chair of the JCVI ? So has too much now been invested to explain to the masses that the ONLY point of mass vaccination of those never at risk was to try to achieve herd immunity which is no longer possible. Therefore as the vaccinated can still catch/carry the virus and are only protected against one specific protein, it is better to stay unvaccinated as this will give people a broader spectrum immune response doing away with the need for boosters for the vast majority of people. Can you imagine when that hits the Daily Mail!!?? Yet how can the messaging not evolve with the current data/facts? Surely not on the basis that gov.uk have bought 30m boosters for the winter of 2022? Given everything else the BBC report says it seems amazing that they were still saying that those who had recovered from the virus without vaccine had an even better immune response when vaccinated with a vaccine targeting one particular variant/ protein! Yet the whole basis of the BBC report surely was that for the vast majority of people natural immunity would offer them a better response given that vaccines didn't stop infection and trying to keep up with variants and boosters would be pointless/costly and provide no better protection for the vast majority of people who were never at risk from C19. Surely this message cannot contd to go unheard can it?
  17. I keep asking this Q but I will ask it again, what will happen if the country has to shut down again given that last year at the start of the virus Britain nearly went bust. People have previously said in response to this Q that the BOE will have to print more money , but this thread seems to be saying that this can't happen. Professor Pollard who led the Oxford vaccine team said last week that it was clear that the Delta variant can still infect people who have been double vaccinated. He said therefore it was important NOT to continue to make the vaccine programme around herd immunity. Herd immunity of course was the ONLY point of vaccinating the whole country given that for most people under 50 covid has never been much of a risk . No point in having a vaccine that only protects against hospitalisation and death if neither were a threat in the first place. Prof Pollard said :" We don’t have anything that will stop transmission, so I think we are in a situation where herd immunity is not a possibility, and I suspect the virus will throw up a new variant that is even better at infecting vaccinated individual. Pollard argued that Britain could be continually vaccinating the population for no real health benefit, constantly boosting to try and deal with something which is not manageable,” So the narrative around the vaccine is going to have to change I assume the government can't keep ignoring what is being said?? Vaccine passports will be pointless because both the vaccinated and unvaccinated can catch and carry c19. So if this all kicks off again (as it is in Israel/Iceland etc ) then what, what will happen if the country needs to shut down again ?
  18. As you say, how does that much froth get blown away given that EAs value properties by what the other properties around it are on the market for AND unfortunately still selling . So in the areas we are looking in (and it's a big area) we started out looking at £220,000 then had to go up to £230,000 to see the same properties then £250,000 and now £280,000 except we can't keep looking at the price not only because we can't afford to but because I can't bring myself to overpay £60,000 on a property which still needs EVERYTHING doing (boilers/windows etc) .
  19. Wow so £40,000 - £60,000 is nothing, apparently some places property has gone up 37% YOY . I hate to show just how stupid I am, but if all these places have seen such HUGE price increases the past year then why are the property indices showing 8- 10% ? That's a lot of froth isn't it.... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-9364115/Which-areas-seen-biggest-house-price-rises-pandemic.html
  20. It would be bad enough if property prices had gone up 8% the past year but we are seeing £40,000 - £60,000 being added to £220,000 properties (area Wales down to Cornwall) in the past 6 months. I honestly don't get it! I have said many times on this forum that when we foolishly put our property on the market in October 2019 the EA said that properties over £230,000 had been difficult to sell since 2016. Yet here we are now with £220,000 properties on the market for £280,000 and selling . So is this sustainable? It is hard to see how .
  21. Thanks for your reply. I liked the Age Uk stat as it was straightforward as I want to know for the vaccinated/unvaccinated the odds for those with C19 (in each age group) then ending up in hospital and then what the chances are of actually dying, but as you say the Age UK stat is out of date and pre Delta . I have tried to find graphs showing how many people of each age group end up in hospital and how many then die, but the ONS data is not easy for someone like me to read as the graphs don't all use the same figures and I struggle to interpret what is being said. For instance there is a graph that shows infections per % of population on which the over 70s are all lumped into together. Then there is a graph re hospitalization where the figure is given as a number per 100,000 etc and the over 70s are divided into different age groups etc.. Perhaps I am looking for something too simplistic. I was just interested to see how many people ended up in hospital and then went on to die (pre vaccine and post vaccine) given that I keep hearing it said The point of vaccination isn’t to prevent people from getting infections; it’s to prevent hospitalisation and death. As we see in the daily case numbers, the virus that causes Covid can still infect vaccinated people. Cyclically infecting immune individuals is fundamental to the biology of human coronaviruses.
  22. I got the data from Age UK who were quoting from the ONS last year. https://www.ageuk.org.uk/discover/2020/06/coronavirus-risk-for-older-people-updated/ I was trying to put a figure on how many people in each age group both before the vaccine and then after the vaccine who contracted C19 went on to be hospitalised and how many then died I am not sure what you are saying but I would really like to understand if you felt you had the time to explain. Thanks :O)
  23. Does the article actually say how many young people are 'crowding' hospitals? Read and re read it but couldn't see what numbers of young people represent a 'crowd'? I know there were headlines last weekend that two young people were in a Bristol hospital ! This is the trouble isn't it sifting out what is actually being said to what is actually happening. It is DREADFUL what is happening world wide, I am certainly not a covid denier or a lockdown /vaccine sceptic I just wish articles like this would list the ages of people in hospital and whether they are vaccinated or not, rather than offering headlines about young people crowding hospitals and requiring 2500 more health workers. I am not saying it's not happening or what is happening isn't heartbreaking whatever the ages of the people but surely it is vital that we get FACTS FACTS AND MORE FACTS re numbers and ages before talking about "surging numbers of young people swamping hospitals unable to breath" which I am not sure is supported in the article as it doesn't say what ages the people are in ICU or on ventilation, I wish it did. I wish that all articles supported the headlines with actual figures . Just took a look at the ONS figures re infection/hospitalisation/ deaths last week and 60+ are by the far the highest but tragic to see ANY cases /deaths in the young. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/hospitals
  24. I have seen another graph somewhere that shows that the variants started in areas of the world where the vaccines were being tested but of course the graph may have been fake news !
  25. That would of course be the an excellent scenario but assume Pfeizer etc wouldn't be too happy about that ??
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