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About 14stFlyer

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  1. Lisa Nandy? My view is that in England we have three parties essentially chasing the same 1/3 of voters: well educated, left-leaning, and socially liberal internationalists - The Greens, LibDems and Labour. These Parties need to merge or at least start cooperating. And at the same time we have not got any party representing those of us in the working class who find tradition, openness, fairness, integrity, and local society to be the most important aspects of our lives. Someone upthread mentioned conservative with a small c. This 1/3 of the voters have been Labour voters
  2. I can see your point in cities. For the rest of us parochials, the view that private cars are on their way out is what will be laughed at. You cannot run your life effectively using just (unreliable) public transport and the local (unreliable) taxi firm.
  3. The people of Hartlepool, and similar places. By supposed left-wing liberal Labour voters, mainly in London and SE who despise them and consider them xenophobic, thick and contemptible.
  4. Nearly 2:1 Conservative to Labour. Insulting your voting base was never going to be a successful strategy and has to stop if Labour are going to regain their (traditional) core voters.
  5. Possible positive outcomes? A Brexit-related drop in immigration to levels where inflows and outflows are similar and net population increase close to zero. Tax incentives (such as those recently put in place in Wales) to redistribute second homes and under-utilised property to those in need of shelter. A Japan-like drop in house prices down to affordable levels for the young as older home owners downsize / die off and four bedroom detached houses flood the market and are again available for young families to live in. A green revolution /recovery where the economy gro
  6. Well, all this willy waggling about moral and intellectual superiority by europhile lefties will definitely get Brexit-voting, working class voters back into the fold, won’t it. “Caste out the beam in thine own eye” or something like that. I am still in the Vote Green camp. Although even here there are problems with delusions of moral superiority.
  7. I am sorry, but although it is true to a point that spread of virus has been more prevalent in the old and infirm at times during the pandemic, it is simply not the case that schools and colleges have been completely free from virus. I saw the increase in cases gathering in education in the autumn. I was involved in one of the mass asymptomatic testing clinics in January (school open for keyworker and vulnerable children) and we found a couple of cases in the first week and then nothing. I was involved again when all the students came back in March. Again, cases in the first week and
  8. For me there are three things that explain the graph Monsieur. Firstly, debt in younger generations because of student fees (yes, LibDems we will never forget), lower starting salaries (relative to asset prices), and high rental costs in urban areas. This means, although just as hungry for wealth as the previous generations, millennials have had to wait longer before they can buy a piece of the pie. Secondly, economic decisions by boomer politicians made for boomer voters from Thatcher to present day. The current property supports, zIRP, Brexit and pension madness being the m
  9. I expect to see significant wealth transfer in the next 20 years as boomers die off /move into homes. Much of this will skip a generation and end up with the millennials. The “family home” will again have children in it at last.
  10. And that is your evidence for exaggerated nonsense and hysteria? You might be right for an empty casket at 600C but a human body usually burns for an hour or so at between 850 and 1250 C. Cast iron surrounds to crematoria retorts of refractory bricks might usually be expected to reach lower temperatures than this unless in continuous use. However, cast iron melting point is Iron, Cast 1127-1204 C So it is clear that some damage to casings by continuous use is possible.
  11. Agree it has been different here than in Japan so far. And I agree that housing (and land) are expensive in Japan: how could it not be in a well developed island with very limited viable land for development. However, Japan shows a fall in property prices at the same time as a fall in interest rates, proving that other factors do have an effect. Agree completely. Low Interest rates have been a huge factor in the global rise in hpi in almost all developed nations, I would even say the most important so far this century. Always possible for bias to creep in to my
  12. I agree with dugs and IMHAL that low interest rates have played a big part in how far the housing bubble inflates But Japan shows us that iamnumerate, insane and others are right that demand also matters. If there were enough houses to fulfil demand in The U.K. then house prices would fall. Japan teaches us this. Given the birth rate and current demographics, what happened in Japan from 1990 will happen in U.K. in our lifetimes in the absence of further mass net immigration.
  13. But the report assumes the vast majority of EEA migrants leave the U.K. before old age, retirement and infirmity set in. This is one of the assumptions (along with the overall numbers) that others have been questioning. I think iamnumerate is right to point out that it is now unclear whether EU migration to the U.K. since freedom of movement started has been good for GDP per capita and the lifestyles of existing residents (including issues of competition for resources such as schools, roads, hospitals and of course housing) or not. Yes, the overall GDP has benefited, but if
  14. The former veterans’ minister Johnny Mercer has launched an extraordinary attack on Boris Johnson’s government, describing it as a “cesspit” and “the most distrustful, awful environment I’ve ever worked in”. This is not an extraordinarily attack on Boris. It is the simple truth.
  15. As usual with leavers they take the models they agree with and dismiss any that do not align with their core belief...immigrants must be bad or the evidence and research is wrong. Typical. Sigh. I am not a leaver. Far from it
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