Timm

A house we were interested in at 400k came to the market 4 weeks ago at 450k. It did not sell immediately, but is now SSTC with no PR on rightmove. I am increasingly bearish, but local market activity does not support my view. Yet.

And then they go home.

Why? National average for second jab: 63.4% Central Oxford second jab: 11.5% https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations

In Oxford central (the University quarter) 7 days to the 21st June: 27 cases. One week later, to the 28th June: 314 cases. That is an increase of 1063% in a week.

Just for fun, let's guess at some numbers. Down 9% by Christmas, with a bottom of 18% down. Nominal.

Sans further market support, I can't see anything other than a bust. Edit: The above is for the housing market. For everything else - inflation.

To be fair, Dr Kory is not completely dismissed by mainstream thought. Evan Davis gave his views a fair airing on PM yesterday.

Just saw my first Chinook for months. During the second wave, I'd often see several in a day. No idea what they are doing, an undertaker friend (really) has scotched the rumor that they are transporting bodies / coffins. My (wild, utterly unfounded) guess is that they are transporting oxygen. Google is no help - search for "Chinook Oxygen" and all you get is salmon. *blinks*

Yes, and any currency seen as too strong risks being overbought, risking the competitiveness of the host state.

My guess is.inflation in CPI, wages and gov spending, with gentle deflation in assets. bank rate might nudge a bit up, but any heavy lifting will be done / attempted in the bond markets first. just a guess.

I'm guessing the Planning white paper is now dead in the water.

The Sun is reporting that the end of stamp duty relief might result in a 14% fall in house prices. https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/14746178/will-house-prices-drop-stamp-duty-holiday-ends/ The Sun.

This source thinks it might be 160,000 deals that miss out. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-9689089/Homebuying-dreams-knife-edge-Stamp-Duty-deadline-approaches.html How many of those chains will survive and complete without the Stamp Duty savings?

That's a good point. Which makes the fall even more surprising.

As you know, this is the Land Registry - the most laggy of the indexes. Many of the sales that are included will have been agreed in January or even December. Doesn't tell us much about what is happening now.