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House Price Crash Forum

Pmax2020

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Everything posted by Pmax2020

  1. The cost of living is rising sharply and that can’t be ignored. It fundamentally impacts the amount of money we have in our pockets. As I said previously, the 13% rise in property prices is subjective and not representative of the intrinsic value of homes. The market is already cooling and that 13% is probably comfortably under 10% yoy already. I have my head in my hands when people use the line ‘survival of the fittest’ because clearly we are not all born as fit as one another. Criticise the winter lockdown if you like, I mean it was pitched as something they knew to be untrue - a ‘3 week circuit breaker’. But you have to go back to late autumn 2020 and consider where we were at. We were on the verge of a vaccination and had legitimate concerns about variants. A lots changed since then.
  2. We didn’t have a vaccine at that point therefore it was a legitimate measure to mitigate deaths. To what degree it would save lives? We didn’t not know but it was worth a shot. Things have changed considerably since then. It’s in no ones interest to keep locking countries down. Take a look at the protests in Australia. Hell, take a look at what’s happening on the M25! The UK government know they couldn’t pull off another lockdown.
  3. The government won’t go for another lockdown. We couldn’t afford the first one. This is it now. Take reasonable precautions, follow basic hygiene and take the vaccination. There’s nothing more any government can do, or would want to do. Everyone’s tired of this and will accept what will be, will be.
  4. The point I’m making is with supply very very low, it’s easy for sellers to capitalise. We viewed 3 houses during these covid times and put an offer in on two. In two instances the properties took 6-7 months to complete. Clearly the result of a daft offers from people who didn’t have the funds in place to move faster. My father in law listed his parents house for £280k. They had 3 outrageous offers, the highest bidder was £380k and they lied about being cash buyers. They stalled for months while they listed and sold their house. Luckily the sale stood. I just don’t think these last 18 months are a good barometer for where prices will be when things settle. Just because a select few paid over the odds doesn’t mean others will. I’ve asked dozens of friends and colleagues about their views on the market. Many want to upsize like myself. Several are FTBs. They all unanimously agree prices are silly and could fall soon. I know 3 couples that did move, all of them have young families and paid a stupid price for a bigger family home last summer. They all openly admit to being ripped off but said ‘they had no choice’. This winter will be interesting. If prices don’t roll back then perhaps the 13% will stick through 2022. I’m not convinced though. I look at the sold prices and can’t stop laughing at what people are paying.
  5. I like you, speedy. I really do. However this statement is deeply flawed. I’m pretty sure transactions over the past 18 months are down 65%. That’s an astronomical hit on supply. Every viewing I went to was packed with punters, and many agents admitted “everyone wants to buy but isn’t listing first”. It stands to reason prices on those particular houses were driven up. This happens with any other asset when you have abnormal market conditions. I mean, I’m pretty sure in the run up to Christmas I could sell my X Box Series S for 13% more than I paid last year but it doesn’t mean it’s going to hold that value beyond Boxing Day. It doesn’t mean it’s inherently worth that simply because for a small period of time someone pays it. I firmly believe the 13% will have eroded away completely through winter. Furlough still hasn’t ended and the papers are now lapping up the apocalyptic inflation headlines which damage confidence in the future.
  6. I took the wee boy out for a cycle yesterday and deliberately went passed a few petrol stations in town. (We live just outside Edinburgh). I could see the ‘pump empty’ tags on a few. Some garages had big queues on Friday but all looked ok yesterday. There was fuel there if you needed it. Going to head out on the bike this evening and I bet it’s a different picture. You can actually readily check the annual mileage of cars online, so people I know were posting photos of these scummy hoarders online alongside their mileage. As you can imagine you had folk filling 6 or 7 containers in their boot which was literally a years worth of fuel for them…
  7. I couldn’t agree more but cost of second hand toys has been pushed higher and higher. I spent ages finding a good deal on a used Nintendo Switch for the kids. The games are barely 10-15% cheaper if you opt for second hand copies. The console itself is around £200 used most places which is pretty crazy considering it could pack in a week later.
  8. When they say Christmas is going to cost more they’re not joking… we paid £6.99 for this in April. It’s now £20. https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B07SS3S6CT?ref=ppx_pop_mob_ap_share Nice Christmas tax.
  9. Inflation and job losses will start to impact prices shortly, even if interest rates don’t rise. I apologise for banging on about it but the rises are everywhere. I find it impossible to get out of Aldi without spending £80-90 on a family shop that used to be nearer £60 for many years. I went back through my Amazon purchases from the last couple of years, clicking on the links to compare today’s price with what I paid. It’s mad. An air fryer I got for £40 is now £80 reduced to £70. A good branded bike seat for the wee one was £74 last summer and is now £125. Laugh all you like but retailers are lapping all this excess cash up. No need to discount anything right now - some muppet will just pay top dollar. Takeaway food costs a fortunate now - that’ll go unnoticed with a lot of these morons. Excellent.
  10. The market is definitely slowing up across central Scotland and the likes of Perthshire and Fife. Everyday a new listing appears and I think, “ok, good luck with that one”. Lo and behold the price is reduced later in the week. Theres been some desperate ones too. Listed at 500k on the Monday then dropped to 499k a few days later as though the reason they’ve clearly had no viewers is simply search filters!! There’s a backlog of overpriced 400-500k houses in my search area that would’ve been 100k less 18 months ago. Greedy people that have now missed the boat. Imagine listing your house amidst the biggest boom the UK housing market has ever seen… and you didn’t sell because the 10-12% Boris bonus wasn’t enough - you wanted even more. Haha!! I can confidently say prices won’t get any higher now in Scotland. Not for many, many years.
  11. I ended up fitting the windows myself. Did a better job than most of these contractors who just clad everything in weatherboard and with a two inch bead of silicone…
  12. Fair point, although I was looking more at the phases of each lockdown easing. During summer 2020, some speculative restrictions were lifted and look how the numbers still spiralled out of control. Leisure, sporting events, social gatherings remained all tightly restricted. You also can’t ignore the fact that last summer people had a far heightened awareness of the virus, and were more committed to be cautious with hygiene etc. This spring we lifted everything and even let folk go to festivals and football matches. The Euros started over 3 months ago, a period where lots of people I work with tested positive as a direct result of going to games or watching them in pubs or fan areas. This massive shift in the volume of social interactions the average person has in 2021 versus 2020 is currently not reflected in the deaths. The next couple of months will be very interesting though.
  13. Predictably, the video is very misleading. It begins by offering the average number of ‘on-field’ deaths in a particular sport… but then lists examples of deaths from other sports and often where the person died at home. This epitomises the problem you have today. You’re dealing with brainless muppets who want to believe they know better than everyone else. Compare August 2021 deaths & ICU admissions with those of August 2020. Guess what? Despite having far more freedoms that last year, we have a fraction of the deaths or hospitalisation. I wonder if it has anything to do with the vaccination or people taking reasonably practicable precautions like wearing masks? Can’t possibly be that - It makes too much sense!!!
  14. I work with people of all ages and almost everyone is now fully vaccinated. My wife and I’s friends and families have also all been double jabbed. In fact, I only know a single person that has refused it because she’s quite overweight and is worried about clots. Fair enough. The idea though that the vaccines net benefit is marginal because people behave as though we’re pre-covid is delusional and frankly brainless. Every single day conversations with friends and colleagues invariably reference the impact covid continues to have on how they function. “We had planned to it this weekend but we’ve cancelled it because of covid” or “We were meant to go out for a meal with friends but we’re having a party in the garden”. Honestly, the narrative that vaccination makes everyone lose their inhibitions and forget the virus exists is truly moronic.
  15. I prefer the Gran Canaria. Great motorway for getting about the island too. Waiting on Sturgeon ditching the traffic light system so I can get it booked.
  16. I’ve been busy with work and family life these last few weeks so I’ve not really followed much in terms of covid. Where are we at? Masks and vaccinations aside, do you see a rise in deaths this year? A fourth wave? The Scottish dashboard shows ICU admissions peaking in August but only to about 40% of the levels of the previous two waves. More importantly, this recent mini Summer peak of cases and hospital admissions hasn’t translated to deaths. Deaths in August were a good 80% below that observed last winter and spring 2020. Dare I say things are looking positive in terms of the virus is running out of steam?
  17. This is exactly how I live my life. If you were to dwell on all the horrible things that happen in the world, or that could happen to you or the people you love then you wouldn’t sleep at night or want to leave your house. Lockdown jokes aside, it’s the simple things in life that make it worth living and that can’t be taken away from us. Forming relationships, learning new skills, taking responsibility, accomplishing goals, travelling, enjoying food, drink, hobbies, sport etc. Invest time and effort into the things that make you happy. Eliminate the things that just cause stress and pain.
  18. can some explain the evergande issue in a couple of sentences a muppet like me will understand?
  19. Don’t you feel the cost of many goods and services has risen purely as a result of all this excess money sloshing about though? I approached half a dozen builders last summer to price replacing a few windows. 4 of them boasted about being too busy to even look at the job, the other two responded with “I’m afraid it’ll have to cost this much because we’re so busy right now”. Literally saying pay double the going rate and we’ll do it! Surely the fact that used cars have gone up in price is the single biggest piece of evidence for this. A guy I work with bought a skoda late 2019 for £10,500 and just sold it to a company for £11,600 this week!!!
  20. Saving £6 annually on my motor insurance doesn’t offset my gas and electricity going up £600. House prices rising 13% year on year doesn’t compensate for the latest 5 year fix being 0.05% lower than last year. Shall I continue?
  21. You have to put it in perspective though. I don’t think you’d need hundreds of these stations to serve a country the size of Scotland, so how big a price would we potentially pay by having, say, 15-20 facilities? Across the expansive mountain ranges that span the breadth of a country like Scotland you’re not going to look out across the vista and see a horizon ruined by concrete monstrosities. These types of power stations are discreet as the dams invariable block the buildings that adjoin them. From many angles you’re just going to see what looks like a reservoir or loch.
  22. I like to indulge myself in apocalyptic HPC & Economic doomsday chat as much as the next guy but even the mundane parts of life as well as fleeting moments transcend that burrowing feeing in my mind that the world is ‘just a horrible place’. When I’m out running I can enjoy being outdoors away from the pressures of day to day life. I find myself enjoying those minor changes in surroundings as we progress through each season. Running in the frost, snow, rain, or sunshine. You can’t beat it. You just need to find the things that bring you enjoyment and block out the crappy bits. It’s not easy but it’s worth living for 😝
  23. I hadn’t realised it but the project has been approved by the Scottish Government and is to be constructed. The difference in elevation between loch ness’ and sea level (16 metres) must be sufficient to economically generate power. Perhaps it’s large surface area compensates for the lack of desirable elevation. The point is there’s huge potential for generating hydroelectric energy in Scotland because there’s an abundance of locations you could effectively dam to construct these facilities. I’ve visited Pitlochry’s hydro power station a few times over the years and it’s more of an attraction that an eye sore. It’s a pretty awesome feat of engineering.
  24. I think it’s a generational thing. More people going to uni immediately adds 4 or 5 years to when the time is right to have a family. People also want to establish a career before starting a family which is fair enough. Some employers aren’t flexible about longer maternity leave either which is problematic. Im in my late 30s and while I’m fortunate enough to have young kids now, it wasn’t as easy because we left it that bit later. We know many people who relied on IVF to fall pregnant as they too were getting that bit older. Luckily being Scottish, the threat of paying for IVF must of focused my mind and we didn’t need to resort to it. It’s incredibly common for couples to be told ‘you’re both perfectly fit and healthy, we can’t explain why you’re not falling pregnant’. So I wouldn’t assume that for many women/couples it’s been a choice not to have kids. Lifestyle, diet and mental health play a huge part in it.
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