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House Price Crash Forum

Timm

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Everything posted by Timm

  1. One would have hoped so. https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/19604970.fuel-panic-buying-plea-south-central-ambulance-service/
  2. All it takes now is for Gove to be seen in downing street, clutching a memo that says "5% - 10% fall in house prices". https://www.theguardian.com/money/2008/may/14/houseprices.property
  3. Evan Davis just now on R4. Used the words "Credit Crunch".
  4. This mirrors what I saw. But to qualify: Late boomers and early Gen X were generally working from home and adopting the mantra "I'll do what I can (mask, face, sanitiser, space etc) and I won't worry about the rest of it". Early (post war) boomers were often hiding at home. But the big hump of boomers in the middle were inviting us to large BBQs where we would be expected to shake hands / crowd into the kitchen and listen to them bang on about how it's just the flu.
  5. Err, was 2003 the top of the last bubble? I thought it was 2007. Plans are afoot to make sure this won't happen. When rates raise and people get repo'd - the banks will just keep their house and rent it out.
  6. * But. What is Capital? Is it currency, wealth, assets? I would suggest that Capital is every form of wealth that can bring forward production. Yes, it is money (which includes but is not limited to currency), which allows the purchase or commission of assets, but it is also those assets themselves (mills, machines, microcomputers etc.). I would also suggest that wealth can buy land and labor and legislation, which are also Capital, to the advantage of the wealthy. All of this advantage is gained by the application of wealth and all of it can be sensibly described as Capitalism. The etymology of the word Capital is interesting. https://www.etymonline.com/word/capital At its root, it essentially meant "head" or "in charge", or "at the start of the process". So if the BOE (or the state) is in charge of the means of exchange / the transferable medium of Capital, then they are the "head", by way of fiat. And if the banks have been granted leave to create the medium of exchange by the state, then they must also be a "head". I suspect that nero120 would agree with this? As such, the banks are at the top of the food chain, with the ability (by way of the advancement of credit), to create an increase in the means of exchange (the currency) that allows others to buy the means of production, where they do not currently possess those means themselves. When the banks create these new funds, they also create a debt, which they can count as an asset. So the advance of (state sanctioned) credit creates a debt that can be legitimately recorded on the bank's balance sheets as an asset and can therefore be described as Capital. Therefore, the creation of money by way of credit has resulted in an increase in Capital for the bank. Which is to say, in the past, Capital bred Capital. But now, Credit breeds Capital. Going back to the etymological root of the word Capital (which means "head", or "in charge"), the BOE and the state sanctioned banks are the "head" of the socio-economic system that we call Capitalism, because they are In Charge. The system therefore no longer relies on the judicial and selfish application of Capital / wealth, but rather on the judicial and (perhaps) selfish application of Power, by way of bank created Credit Currency. So in summary, I would argue that our economic system is Capitalism, but that we desperately need a new name for it, because it is materially fundamentally different from the system previously defined as Capitalism.
  7. I think this is one of the best threads here in recent months - back to the chaotic, challenging and thought provoking threads before and around the credit crunch. With regard to Capitalism, I would agree with the consensus view here that we have no better term to describe the current system (other than perhaps Modern Economy, which is a description in search of a definition). I also think that our current system has a vast amount of elements that were common to a truly capitalist system that are still in place - they are so many, so pervasive and so important, that Capitalism is generally a good definition way of identifying the system. But. I don't think our current system is Capitalism* in the way that: 1. Most people understand it. 2. What most text books and dictionaries say (more later). 3. What classic capitalism actually was. All three of the above (appear) to define Capitalism as the use of wealth to facilitate the further increase of wealth. Capitalists used their wealth (or that of others) to buy the means of production and get richer. So a person with a bit of wealth might buy a house, buy some beans, open a coffee house and get a bit richer. Now, such an investment would come (in the main) from a loan (money from thin air), which would then be an asset (and therefore Capital) for the lender. So in the past, Capital was the driver of activity. Now, it is the result of it.
  8. Looks like the drop in case numbers might have bottomed out...
  9. Ohh! Spam! That takes me back...
  10. Do we have the results yet?
  11. Thanks for the link. It was interesting, possibly eye-opening.
  12. Awesome! Thank you so much!
  13. How do I log out when logged in on my phone?
  14. A house we were interested in at 400k came to the market 4 weeks ago at 450k. It did not sell immediately, but is now SSTC with no PR on rightmove. I am increasingly bearish, but local market activity does not support my view. Yet.
  15. Why? National average for second jab: 63.4% Central Oxford second jab: 11.5% https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
  16. In Oxford central (the University quarter) 7 days to the 21st June: 27 cases. One week later, to the 28th June: 314 cases. That is an increase of 1063% in a week.
  17. Just for fun, let's guess at some numbers. Down 9% by Christmas, with a bottom of 18% down. Nominal.
  18. Sans further market support, I can't see anything other than a bust. Edit: The above is for the housing market. For everything else - inflation.
  19. To be fair, Dr Kory is not completely dismissed by mainstream thought. Evan Davis gave his views a fair airing on PM yesterday.
  20. Just saw my first Chinook for months. During the second wave, I'd often see several in a day. No idea what they are doing, an undertaker friend (really) has scotched the rumor that they are transporting bodies / coffins. My (wild, utterly unfounded) guess is that they are transporting oxygen. Google is no help - search for "Chinook Oxygen" and all you get is salmon. *blinks*
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