btd1981 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 47 minutes ago, Trump Invective said: 85 cases now - oooh mama this is getting hot! Is anywhere official maintaining a trend of cases vs. time for different countries? Would be interesting if there is an inevitable trend, that could therefore be used to estimate how the UK might balloon in the coming days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kosmin Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, Simhadri said: But Wuhan is where all this virus started. If Chinese failed to check, that's not excuse for us not doing checks. Its like saying illegal immigrants entered France and french didn't bother to check, so UK should do same and allow them. If the UK stopped entries from Wuhan that only stops people who caught the virus in Wuhan. If other countries don't stop entries from Wuhan, the virus can spread in their countries, and then to the UK. You concluded that the UK allowed this because it wanted it to spread. In that case you should also conclude that China wanted it to spread to other countries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 54 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said: Not very much, which is why they should enforce them to do so and pay them a higher rate than the standard SSP- ONLY if tested positive for the virus Not practical. How do you enforce someone to report a sniffle? There is already a backlog of requests for tests and for the results: and the spread has barely started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kosmin Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 53 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: We have millions of people doing customer service jobs on zero hours contract with no entitlement to sick pay and probably without the means to fund two weeks self isolation. What are the chances of them taking two weeks off work because they have what is probably just a cough? I wonder if we'll see significant differences between countries depending on the ease of taking two weeks off. If so, I suspect it will be even worse in the USA, where millions will not only avoid taking time off, but will avoid testing and perhaps treatment due to the cost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 18 minutes ago, btd1981 said: Is anywhere official maintaining a trend of cases vs. time for different countries? Would be interesting if there is an inevitable trend, that could therefore be used to estimate how the UK might balloon in the coming days. Just look at Italy and that will give you a pretty good idea. At a guess we are about 7-10 days behind. Bog roll supplies in Waitrose looking a bit sparse today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Kosmin said: I wonder if we'll see significant differences between countries depending on the ease of taking two weeks off. If so, I suspect it will be even worse in the USA, where millions will not only avoid taking time off, but will avoid testing and perhaps treatment due to the cost. US is probably much worse than being reported as if you self refer you have to pay for testing if it comes back negative and pay for quarantine if it comes back positive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 hour ago, bear.getting.old said: Big question I'm most bothered about is why are the UK NOT saying that the virus can be spread even if you have no sympthoms??? Everywhere else in the world is saying that it can be. EG those exposed to a person who tested positive for it, had no sympthoms but tested postive themselves in China and other places. Because , as the WHO reports states, there is very-very few symptom-less carriers. UK government etc is pushing the line that most people won't be affected, just like flu, carry on spending, but its bull poo. CODID19 could kill 1000x the rate of flu and we don't know of ALL the long term health affects yet. SARS-2 is another name for COVID19. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 57 minutes ago, Kosmin said: Why did China allow people to leave without doing checks? China stopped anyone leavening the affected areas, only foreign nations (dual nationals were blocked initially) could leave if they were fit to travel (i.e. tested) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flopsy Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said: It a valid point not left or right wing. We have millions of people doing customer service jobs on zero hours contract with no entitlement to sick pay and probably without the means to fund two weeks self isolation. What are the chances of them taking two weeks off work because they have what is probably just a cough? Friend who is a nurse mentioned the hospital cleaners and other staff who may still come to work when sick as they don't get paid leave. She's not left wing. A number of people of all walks of life have mentioned this recently in relation to elderly relatives and care workers or similar situations. They are worried about their own cleaners and delivery workers. It cuts across party lines now. Edited March 4, 2020 by Flopsy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeordieAndy Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 (edited) So I read last week that someone was transferred from Cornwall to the RVI hospital in Newcastle where I'm from and then today we have this... Either someone messed up along the line to the "specialist centre" at the RVI or it's a coincidence but either way it's not good. Also from anecdotal posts on here and other forums I seriously doubt those reporting to 111 are all being followed up fully and that "the risk remains low" for something that is 3000% more deadly than 'normal' flu ?? Edited March 4, 2020 by GeordieAndy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfig Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Department of Health will no longer give daily updates on location of each new case The Department of Health has said it will no longer provide daily information on the location of each new case "due to the number of new cases". "Instead, this information will be released centrally in a consolidated format online, once a week. We are working on this now and plan to share on Friday," the department tweeted. OH DEAR Government to stop giving daily updates about locations of new cases Last Updated 18 mins ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 46 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: Just look at Italy and that will give you a pretty good idea. At a guess we are about 7-10 days behind. Bog roll supplies in Waitrose looking a bit sparse today. Yes, Geordie Andy supplied the data. We are approx. 2 days behind Spain, and 3-4 behind Germany/France. Of course this could represent testing, rather than state of the virus. It was interesting to see yesterday the relatively small number of cases added yesterday, which may have hinted that we were limiting it, but it just looks like a statistical blip. If previous numbers are anything to go by, we will add another 40-50 cases tomorrow. To me we need to adopt more stringent measures now if we are to stop it. And we need to stop importing people with it if we are not going to have re-occurance. Because we are actually going to do neither of these things its pretty much nailed on that we will end up in the same place that other countries are and it's only a matter of time before we reach this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 What's not currently clear is how many of the reported cases have been wandering around infecting other people. So far all but a very small number have been reported as contracting the virus abroad but what's less clear is whether or not we're awaiting the lag between them infecting people in the UK and those cases showing up, or whether they've been mostly isolated. That'll make a great deal of difference to what should be really concerning - the rate at which people are being infected within the country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 21 minutes ago, Patfig said: Department of Health will no longer give daily updates on location of each new case The Department of Health has said it will no longer provide daily information on the location of each new case "due to the number of new cases". "Instead, this information will be released centrally in a consolidated format online, once a week. We are working on this now and plan to share on Friday," the department tweeted. OH DEAR Government to stop giving daily updates about locations of new cases Last Updated 18 mins ago Time to give Gina Miller something to fight for, we should suggest to her it’s against remainers human rights not to know where and how many daily and she can take this straight to the high court. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 4 hours ago, Peter Hun said: Immunity last some time, not forever. Depends on the individual how long, could be weeks, months or years. Read my words, that is exactly what I said.....a period of time means just that, a period of time of immunity.? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, markyh said: Gina Miller Who? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 hours ago, bear.getting.old said: The loony left will even use a fatal virus to try to score political points, its very sad really This is not a political issue.......but people naturally judge the powers in power and control at the time by how they act, communicate and deal with what is in effect a global situation.....? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 (edited) Call me naive, but the fatality rate could be way lower than currently thought. Every death from Covid-19 will be recorded, but not every instance of infection will. For example, Italy report 79 deaths, and cause of death is recorded in every death of every citizen all the time. So we can be sure the number of Covid-19 deaths are accurate. But those 79 deaths come from 2502 reported cases. This number could be 25000, because a lot of people will have mild symptoms, may pass it off as a common cold, and therefore not be officially recorded. If that's the case, the fatality rate would be very low. Edited March 4, 2020 by Orb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slawek Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Trump Invective said: 85 cases now - oooh mama this is getting hot! Yes, it looks like the UK will have a few thousands cases in 1-2 weeks. The new cases should double every 2-3 days. We are where Italy was on 21/22 of Feb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 How do we know how many have got it?......nobody knows if they have got it until they have had a test and had a result that says they are positive as having it......other than that nobody knows.? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 hour ago, btd1981 said: Is anywhere official maintaining a trend of cases vs. time for different countries? Would be interesting if there is an inevitable trend, that could therefore be used to estimate how the UK might balloon in the coming days. Yes this has been linked several times on here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetsBuild Posted March 4, 2020 Author Share Posted March 4, 2020 There is a lot being made of China having ‘beaten’ this, but what is to stop someone from the rest of the world bringing it back in if they reduce the draconian measures? Is their plan to keep on lockdown until a vaccine is created, mass produced and distributed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 3 hours ago, Simhadri said: If our UK govt is serious about containment, why did they allow people from Wuhan into Heathrow with NHS leaflets instead of doing medical checks on them ? They didn't want to be called racists. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slawek Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, winkie said: How do we know how many have got it?......nobody knows if they have got it until they have had a test and had a result that says they are positive as having it......other than that nobody knows.? My guess is the number of all cases is a few times of the confirmed cases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flopsy Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 (edited) I think it is important to consider the number of serious cases. They are going to be "heaven's waiting room" for some and watching Italy may give us an idea of where the UK will be. Remember that a figure of 150? current critical care beds of the type needed was said by some doctor recently in England. Italy has 295 out of it's 2706 cases. China has 6416/27301. Italy is very high and I don't know how the UK is going to find enough of the right sort of critical care beds Edited March 4, 2020 by Flopsy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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