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House Price Crash Forum


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About Kosmin

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  1. Why do you consider that representative? I haven't heard the same sentiments from those I've spoken to. Why bearing does average intelligence have on the quality of the top, selective institutions? Do you think the average person in Oxfordshire or Cambridgeshire is particularly intelligent? The University of Auckland is in the top 100 world universities, higher than many UK universities. https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/world-university-rankings/2020 If they have the opportunity to go to Oxbridge then it may be worth pursuing, but if they just have offers
  2. It depends on the tax rate and the threshold, but it's not likely for this to happen. Do house prices crash when people die and sell their houses to pay inheritance tax? Consider the wealth tax proposed by Warren (2% on assets from $50m to $1bn, and 6% on assets over $1bn). So a household with wealth of $100m would effectively pay 1%, $1bn it would be 1.9% and at $2bn it would be 3.95%. At these rates it's unlikely households would liquidate assets to pay the bill, as they could pay most or all of it out of dividend income. Households paying close to 6% would sell some of their assets, bu
  3. I just used that as an example because it was topical. I perhaps should have said if you need, for a personal emergency, some money in a hurry, it's easy to sell shares instantly and settlement should take less than a week. Selling a house takes months. We actually don't know that Ebola wasn't the right time to sell. Say a landlord bought several years before Ebola and was sitting on a big capital gain and was scared that Ebola was going to turn his gain into a big loss. Obviously that turned out to be wrong, because Ebola didn't become a pandemic. But we don't know that the coronaviru
  4. In that scenario other housing related investment strategies might be better. For example, buy shares of housebuilders and related sectors. These have big advantages over BTL. They will probably provide higher returns and you will pay less tax and fees on them. Also if you know when to sell you can do so. If you knew it was time to sell in January when you first heard about the coronavirus, you wouldn't have been able to sell a house before March but you could have sold your shares that day.
  5. It's a weird article. He doesn't consider the possibility the pension policy may change in the future. He doesn't acknowledge that the young today are already going to start drawing their state pension later (at least 68, but possibly older). He doesn't acknowledge the possibility that demographic and economic changes might make pensions and healthcare costs increase significantly. He doesn't consider where the money will be transferred instead if the triple lock is removed. He makes the error of only comparing the young and old as pensioners! OK, young people might receive lower pension
  6. Why not tax property wealth? Higher tax (there is currently council tax, but this is quite low as a proportion of high value properties) for owning more valuable property would incentivise downsizing. If you want to tax people who benefit from property wealth, you catch all of them with property wealth taxes. If you want to encourage efficient use of properties, property wealth taxes are much better than stamp duty. Stamp duty not only gives many wealthy property owners the choice of not paying by not moving. It penalises people who move (people who get a job in another region, who
  7. They have much more effective propaganda downplaying the risks than we do and they have much less support for those who couldn't work. So people had to try to find work. The only uncertainty was whether the demand existed to support employment.
  8. The US unemployment rate which was expected to surge to a record 19.1% in May from 14.7% in April, actually declined in May to 13.3% and dropped further to 11.1% in June, far better than the 12.5% expected.
  9. I think that's quite a small minority of women, but surely it's a significantly smaller proportion of men. In an average marriage the man is older than the woman (the actuarial assumption is usually two or four years). So the man will typically have accumulated more wealth. Several generations ago, the expectation that men would aim to be sole breadwinners (and that women would seek out good breadwinners) began to change quite rapidly. Now men and women can go through a marriage as economic equals, working the same amount and taking the same amount of time off to look after children.
  10. I'm not saying it's a great place. I think if it's is OK normally and other Western countries are great normally, it may be better as long as there is still a much greater risk and many more restrictions in other countries. Most universities either have everything on campus or most things are nearby. Most students spend most of their time on campus or in nearby student areas (in some places the local population resent students, in other places the non-student bars/clubs etc. are too expensive, most students mostly want to spend time with other students). I've only been to university in En
  11. You said kiwis can't hold a conversation about anything except rugby and you call me condescending! The question isn't whether an 18 year old would want to go all over New Zealand (though incidentally many do go backpacking there), but whether he would want to go there for a more normal university experience. So if you actually have experience of New Zealand universities it would have been relevant.
  12. I wonder if this will still be the case in the coming academic year, or if a lot more German students will study in Germany, therefore reducing the number of places for foreign students.
  13. You said you went to university, but you seem confused about what hypothetical means. Your low opinion of New Zealand seems based on visits to your family out there. Is the area in which they live really representative of the universities and surrounding areas?
  14. What about the government actions before this? What if the government had taken steps to slow the spread of the virus several weeks earlier? Wouldn't that have had a much bigger impact?
  15. Are German universities open? Is Germany open? You speak German and could find rent-free accommodation?
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