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House Price Crash Forum


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About Kosmin

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  1. The riots in Minneapolis are because police saw a man who looked like someone accused of passing bad cheques and decided to kill him (one held his legs, another kneeled on his neck and the other two told bystanders to mind their own business). I think if the UK police were as badly behaved we would have riots, but they aren't so we won't.
  2. Those who stand to benefit from selling it are presumably losing out on a lot of sales of other drugs, so I'm not sure this is plausible.
  3. How do you define hyperinflation? I don't think there is a strict cut off, but generally it has to at least 100% per annum. Perverse incentives, ignorance, complexity, poor regulation. But this hasn't led to much inflation, and certainly not high inflation.
  4. Other markets followed the same pattern of fluctuations this month. Were monetary injections reversed at any point this month? Have we ever had hyperinflation in the UK? What's the evidence that housing is in a bear market? Why doesn't this show up in any indices?
  5. I never understood this argument. Someone has been living in a house which has presumably had unsafe wiring for many years, but it only matters when they sell.
  6. Why? Are global indices are more correlated with UK house prices? Has there been a housing crash without a stock market crash in the past? Stock markets often fall 15-20% and house prices don't move much (I think this has happened three times since 2015).
  7. The trouble is that Cummings and his wife indicate by their actions that they are in this group. They are young, fit and healthy, so why did they assume that they were about to become horrendously ill? If true, why do you think Tory MPs can't see this?
  8. On reflection I'm even less sure that many people are going to break the lockdown as a consequence of Cummings' actions. His justification for breaking lockdown was that he and his wife (two youngish, thin and presumably fit and healthy people) were very ill. A lot of people are scared of the virus, so they may see Cummings' actions as more of a justification of not allowing children back to school, claiming their workplace isn't safe and opposing the lifting of other restrictions on businesses and social activities.
  9. I'm sure that's a big factor, but not the only one. When did the money flood in and when did markets move? FTSE 100 was 6100 a month ago. Then fell to 5750, recovered to 6000 fell to 5750 and today looks like opening up above 6200. Do you think these fluctuations have nothing to do with expectations and new data? As the flood of money is keeping stock markets high, what do you think this suggests will happen to house prices?
  10. That's incorrect. If someone pays you for a service, you have generated wealth.
  11. In New York, all residents must wear a mask when they cannot social distance.
  12. A majority of Americans favour postal voting. https://www.people-press.org/2020/04/28/two-thirds-of-americans-expect-presidential-election-will-be-disrupted-by-covid-19/ Do you think there is a lot of electoral fraud in the UK or other countries which allow postal voting and don't require voter ID? If not, why do you think these are such big issues in the USA and not other countries?
  13. People who think a recovery is more likely v than u shaped. Sentiment changes quickly, but markets are currently suggesting people are optimistic about this.
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