Time to give up? Or keep hanging on?

[Dorkins]

On 05/03/2021 at 14:39, PeanutButter said:

Is it madness? Or is the simply that for the vast majority of people the UK's housing market is a SAFE PLACE to put their money? 

The vast majority of people in the UK don't have a significant amount of money to put anywhere, safe or not. What's the average pension pot at retirement, £50-60k? The UK is a much poorer country than it thinks it is, it's just silly debt-driven prices that hide this.

[Clarky Cat]

3 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

The vast majority of people in the UK don't have a significant amount of money to put anywhere, safe or not. What's the average pension pot at retirement, £50-60k? The UK is a much poorer country than it thinks it is, it's just silly debt-driven prices that hide this.

So true. A quick google reveals the average adult in the UK has £6757 of savings and 1 in 3 has less than £600.

[Dorkins]

10 minutes ago, Clarky Cat said:

So true. A quick google reveals the average adult in the UK has £6757 of savings and 1 in 3 has less than £600.

FTSE All Share market cap is £2tn, divide that by 35 million households gets you to £57k in equities per household available to buy. Bond market is maybe 3x the size so call it £200k in investable capital per household. At a 3% real return that's £6k in investment income per household. Buttons, basically.

The funny thing about 21st century capitalism is that there's surprisingly little actual capital about. I guess that's what happens when a society decides to spend 40 years selling houses to itself at increasingly inflated prices as its main economic activity.

Edited March 7, 2021 by Dorkins

[Huggy]

52 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

 average pension pot at retirement, £50-60k

 

42 minutes ago, Clarky Cat said:

average adult in the UK has £6757 of savings and 1 in 3 has less than £600.

The average person really is thick as shi*.

[PeanutButter]

1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

The vast majority of people in the UK don't have a significant amount of money to put anywhere, safe or not. What's the average pension pot at retirement, £50-60k? The UK is a much poorer country than it thinks it is, it's just silly debt-driven prices that hide this.

There’s a difference between paying off a mortgage for a home you live in, and savings or pension, obviously.  

Most people know that buying their own shelter is simply the best and safest investment available to them. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/articles/householdwealthbyethnicitygreatbritain/april2016tomarch2018

 

• Median total wealth for all households in Great Britain was £286,600 between April 2016 and March 2018, with medians ranging from £34,000 among those with a household head from the Black African group to £314,000 for the White British group.

[winkie]

1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

FTSE All Share market cap is £2tn, divide that by 35 million households gets you to £57k in equities per household available to buy. Bond market is maybe 3x the size so call it £200k in investable capital per household. At a 3% real return that's £6k in investment income per household. Buttons, basically.

The funny thing about 21st century capitalism is that there's surprisingly little actual capital about. I guess that's what happens when a society decides to spend 40 years selling houses to itself at increasingly inflated prices as its main economic activity.

A £50k to £60k private pension pot will not last long, not enough to service a retirement of 15 to 20 years......never mind 30 years.

FTSE £2tn is only that figure not a true rational value, because of all the debt created that supports it, same with house price equity increases.....there must come a point when this pump and purchase using money not borne from productivity growth, only debt growth will collapse, no longer sustainable.

[PeanutButter]

 

1 hour ago, Clarky Cat said:

So true. A quick google reveals the average adult in the UK has £6757 of savings and 1 in 3 has less than £600.

Not really

Wealth inequality has fallen

Wealth is not shared equally across the country. But this is not a story of ever-rising inequality. In fact, the share of wealth held by the richest 1% fell for most of the 20th Century, and has been stable ever since.

This shift is mainly down to the sharp rise in home-ownership

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48759591

[moonriver]

From twitter....

Henry Pryor@HenryPryor (buying agent)....

·

Quote

Faced with a shortage of homes for sale many people are panic buying like they did for loo rool last year. It’s a false market, take extra care. I’ve blogged on this; https://henrypryor.com

Looks like we really do need to do our research, before buying in such upredictable times.

[zugzwang]

39 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

 

Not really

Wealth inequality has fallen

Wealth is not shared equally across the country. But this is not a story of ever-rising inequality. In fact, the share of wealth held by the richest 1% fell for most of the 20th Century, and has been stable ever since.

This shift is mainly down to the sharp rise in home-ownership

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48759591

The UK is in the middle of a decades-long wealth boom. Total wealth now stands at a record £12.8 trillion, or almost £13 million million.

🤣 🤣 🤣

[Dorkins]

1 hour ago, PeanutButter said:

There’s a difference between paying off a mortgage for a home you live in, and savings or pension, obviously.  

Most people know that buying their own shelter is simply the best and safest investment available to them. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/articles/householdwealthbyethnicitygreatbritain/april2016tomarch2018

 

• Median total wealth for all households in Great Britain was £286,600 between April 2016 and March 2018, with medians ranging from £34,000 among those with a household head from the Black African group to £314,000 for the White British group.

The median UK household by age is headed by an early 50-something who was able to buy their house for cheap in the 1990s and now owns it outright or is close to doing so. Subtract their house price from that £287k wealth and there is not much else, just low 10s of £k, which was my original point. The younger households coming up after that 50something had no such bite of the cherry with housing so will be even poorer.

Edited March 7, 2021 by Dorkins

[msi]

6 hours ago, Dorkins said:

The median UK household by age is headed by an early 50-something who was able to buy their house for cheap in the 1990s and now owns it outright or is close to doing so. Subtract their house price from that £287k wealth and there is not much else, just low 10s of £k, which was my original point. The younger households coming up after that 50something had no such bite of the cherry with housing so will be even poorer.

and the same 50-somethinig will bemoan that younger households need to stop biting avocado toast

[Patfig]

7 hours ago, moonriver said:

From twitter....

Henry Pryor@HenryPryor (buying agent)....

·

 

Looks like we really do need to do our research, before buying in such upredictable times.

I think buying now is for the brave

[shlomo]

1 hour ago, msi said:

and the same 50-somethinig will bemoan that younger households need to stop biting avocado toast

My wife love Avocado on toast with egg

[Speed1987]

On 3/5/2021 at 3:36 PM, Confusion of VIs said:

One of them is in my arm, I had an end of day spare vaccine a couple of weeks ago. 

The idea that a virus will turn nasty if it is put in a place of pressure is amusing but scientifically nonsense. Fewer infections means fewer opportunities for the virus to mutate, as always individual mutations may be more or less deadly.   

Emerging data is showing that it is better than 50% effective against the new variants, which is good enough until a booster targeting the new variants comes along.  

The future may be similar to the flu jab, this years one contained four vaccines targeting different variants.      

Seems like the scientists are back tracking again... who would of thought it?

We all know it's not going to be 30k deaths.... more like another 60k+ at winter.

Edited March 9, 2021 by Speed1987

[GenZ]

There's not going to be HPC while It's much cheaper to buy then rent in most of the country.  200k is less than 900 quid a month.  

Only interest rates raising to a modest 3% or above would cause a crash.  no way they're going to do that.

 

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, Speed1987 said:

Seems like the scientists are back tracking again... who would of thought it?

We all know it's not going to be 30k deaths.... more like another 60k+ at winter.

Where is the back tracking?

I posted a while ago that according to leaked documents Johnson had been told that the planned path was not ideal and would involve 30,000 extra deaths, and also that some social distancing measures may be required for the foreseeable future. 

Nobody apart from maybe you expected the virus to just go away.  

 

 

[Confusion of VIs]

On 07/03/2021 at 10:40, winkie said:

A £50k to £60k private pension pot will not last long, not enough to service a retirement of 15 to 20 years......never mind 30 years.

FTSE £2tn is only that figure not a true rational value, because of all the debt created that supports it, same with house price equity increases.....there must come a point when this pump and purchase using money not borne from productivity growth, only debt growth will collapse, no longer sustainable.

The only thing a £50-60k retirement pot is good for is having a really good retirement blow out party/holiday before coming home with just enough left to avoid having your benefits cut. 

More prosaically you could spend it on making your house as comfortable as possible for your later years.    

[jabber]

On 04/03/2021 at 20:47, Peter Hun said:

In London prices are still beyond impossible. No amount of fiddling can get buyers in. 

I know someone who did the old buy a cheap flat so I'm a homeowner, then got a BTL IO mortgage on a house, rented out the flat and lives in the house... Obvs neither mortgage company know and I'm not sure if HMRC would try and do him for CG when he sells the house.

[Wayward]

On 07/03/2021 at 10:47, PeanutButter said:

 

Not really

Wealth inequality has fallen

Wealth is not shared equally across the country. But this is not a story of ever-rising inequality. In fact, the share of wealth held by the richest 1% fell for most of the 20th Century, and has been stable ever since.

This shift is mainly down to the sharp rise in home-ownership

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48759591

Why focus on the 1%...?  Wealth is shifting between much larger cohorts.  The young to the old, the poorer to the richer.  It is the other half that benefit from HPI...not 1%. We are not paying rent to the 1%..we pay rent to ordinary  middle aged better off couples, the woman at work and the guy over the road.

Edited March 9, 2021 by Wayward
.

[Bluestone59]

On 07/03/2021 at 10:11, Huggy said:

 

The average person really is thick as shi*.

Maybe, but quite a lot of people do not have the resources to save meaningful amounts.

Interest on cash savings has been poor for years so ok let's invest in a stocks and shares ISA. But then we'll still need a cash float so that we don't have to cash in the shares at a bad time to sell which s**s' law it would be. Thus even more will need to be saved.

Some time in the 80s the DWP wanted people to be encouraged to save to have more security but the Treasury was against because it would reduce their spending and hurt the economy.

The Workplace pension arrived UK decades after its equivalent in some other countries, I suggest, due to the amorality and cowardice of politicians. The average Joe doesn't understand this stuff, maybe they're thick, bit harsh to call them that if education didn't cover these basics (which I believe it now does).

Government dislikes savers. If you have reserves and the boss gets up your nose on Monday morning you might tell him to shove it. HMG and business prefer serfdom. 

Low savings rates aren't only a function of stupidity, saving is actually discouraged.

Or did I miss something?

[jimmy2x3]

On 04/03/2021 at 19:33, Speed1987 said:

I personally feel that anybody thinking of upgrading or buying should do so ASAP.

Firstly all this furlough and grants are ending is nonsense, they told us in 2020 that this would be over by March 2021...

They told us last year we would only need to lockdown for 2 weeks, (circuit breaker) and all will be well.

All these policies currently are BS...

However their actions are clear, they will pump as much money into the housing market as possible. They will, not allow a HPC and even if half of the population died tomorrow, they would quickly important citizens from another country because they are being abused.

All you need to be aware of and remember, is there are new variants now which vaccines are not effective against.

That means unless a miracle vaccine lands of our doorstep tomorrow and is injected into everyone before September, then we are ******ed again next winter and anybody who tells you different is away with the ******ing faires.

The housing market is not going to crash, not because of this pandemic anyhow...

ive said all along. i will say again and more and more are starting to realise. the way out of this covid nightmare is to get covid. nothing is as benificial or as good as actually catching this virus. this information is being supresssed or at least not highlighted or being put across in a twisted way to mask the facr.  heres the stats. hardly a handfull of people have had covid twice since this pandemic started. lots try to claim they have but amazingly only a handfull of verifyable cases. catching covid just like catching the spanish flu protects you for life. im not saying run out and get it but for the 25% of the country that have had it and survived it. its not going to be covid on their death certificate.

This has been proven in the SIREN report by public health england, also many medical journals around the world. the information is out there if you look but somehow its not being shouted from the rooftops. 

[adarmo]

2 hours ago, jimmy2x3 said:

ive said all along. i will say again and more and more are starting to realise. the way out of this covid nightmare is to get covid. nothing is as benificial or as good as actually catching this virus. this information is being supresssed or at least not highlighted or being put across in a twisted way to mask the facr.  heres the stats. hardly a handfull of people have had covid twice since this pandemic started. lots try to claim they have but amazingly only a handfull of verifyable cases. catching covid just like catching the spanish flu protects you for life. im not saying run out and get it but for the 25% of the country that have had it and survived it. its not going to be covid on their death certificate.

This has been proven in the SIREN report by public health england, also many medical journals around the world. the information is out there if you look but somehow its not being shouted from the rooftops. 

Many people got emotional about NHS workers getting a 1% raise for saving the country but the reality is the country locked down to save the NHS. 

I agree with the theory, if with people catch covid then you'll build a natural herd immunity but the problem is many would require medical attention and swamp the NHS.

Tbh, i think there was a behind the scenes strategy of this by keeping schools open. Chicken pox is better if you catch it young and you're generally covered for life. Early to say but Covid possibly the same. 

[msi]

2 hours ago, adarmo said:

Many people got emotional about NHS workers getting a 1% raise for saving the country but the reality is the country locked down to save the NHS. 

It wasn't about saving the NHS, but saving the Government from their 'who to save plan'. Nightingales weren't overflow hospitals, they were overflow hospices to send the dying to shuffle off in quiet.  All well and good talking about 'herd immunity', but when a Doctor tells you they won't treat granny because BoJo wants to save resources for someone 'with a better chance' you'd get riots.

 

2 hours ago, adarmo said:

Tbh, i think there was a behind the scenes strategy of this by keeping schools open. Chicken pox is better if you catch it young and you're generally covered for life. Early to say but Covid possibly the same. 

Feel free to tell parents of Brain damaged children that they were better catching measles young than having the MMR jab.

http://www.wales.nhs.uk/news/27029

 

[adarmo]

14 hours ago, msi said:

It wasn't about saving the NHS, but saving the Government from their 'who to save plan'. Nightingales weren't overflow hospitals, they were overflow hospices to send the dying to shuffle off in quiet.  All well and good talking about 'herd immunity', but when a Doctor tells you they won't treat granny because BoJo wants to save resources for someone 'with a better chance' you'd get riots.

 

Feel free to tell parents of Brain damaged children that they were better catching measles young than having the MMR jab.

http://www.wales.nhs.uk/news/27029

 

Your first point is literally reinforcing mine. 

Not sure what point you're trying to make in the second? You're confusing a totally different illness and one we actually have a known jab for. 

What are the side effects of kids having covid? Comparable with measles (for which there's a fricking vaccine lol) or Chicken pox which is annoying for about a week. 

[msi]

9 hours ago, adarmo said:

Your first point is literally reinforcing mine.

No.  Unless you picked up the language semantics used by the Tories.  Their use of 'Save the NHS'  and the furore over 'NHS' Track and Trace suggest the NHS is spendthrift, unorganised, and needed everyone to help it out of a hole - all fodder to drive through more privatisation.  Compare to the 'Government' vaccination drive which gets public praise - even though it's delivered by the NHS.

 

9 hours ago, adarmo said:

Not sure what point you're trying to make in the second? You're confusing a totally different illness and one we actually have a known jab for. 

What are the side effects of kids having covid? Comparable with measles (for which there's a fricking vaccine lol) or Chicken pox which is annoying for about a week. 

Please enlighten me to the point you want to make?  Any viral vector is stopped by either of 2 strategies - herd immunity or breaking the transmission chain.   Letting children get it, simply establishes a transmission chain for others to suffer.  Both measles and Chicken pox have severe reactions in a small number of children, even that small number justifies mass vaccination.