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House Price Crash Forum


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About Pop321

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  • About Me
    Apocalypse Now.
    HPC: They told me that you had gone totally insane, and that your methods were unsound.
    118: Are my methods unsound?
    HPC: I don't see any method at all

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  1. Wouldn’t the worst case scenario be that the profit being made on the HMO wasn’t just paying your mortgage but also feeding you? If so then without tenants you can’t eat.
  2. I would exchange a missed couple of missed payments for void any time. A void means decorating, cleaning, referencing and tenant fund fees, new carpets maybe, new tenants insurance, change oven, new requirement for electrical cert if one not in place. My places rent for £500/600 and in A void I would expect to spend £2k getting the place like new again....otherwise it doesn’t let. For a leveraged landlord it may not be the end of the world but it usually mean no profit for the year. Fine unless of course they are relying on the income for fund a living.
  3. I had a DB scheme which was fixed (Fixed benefit and fixed contribution). I also then was able to contribute more into a DC scheme, effectively an AVC. Max contributions ie £40k each year...allowing for employers contributions and the small amount I paid into DB scheme. With employer contributions and tax relief at 40% it was a no brainer I left work at 50 transferred the huge amount offered and moved everything out into a SIPP. That is not for everyone but a 48x pension offer was too much to refuse under my circumstances when balanced with the other investment income I have. So to your question. This all suggest I have huge faith in pensions. Nope. Against the advice of everyone (including myself) I took the full 25% at age 50 last year...mine was a protected rights pension so I can access at 50. The reason was I felt the goalposts could change, maybe the tax free lump sum lowered, maybe restrict how much can be taken each year even outside the 25%, maybe age restrictions etc. I felt the pension at 40% tax relief was a great way to acquire wealth but not necessarily to hold wealth. To be fair I won’t draw anymore, ie the remaining 75% for a while, due to my other investment income but I fully expect goalposts to change, change and change again. Technically my pension is now already in payment so less likely to change....but who knows. A lot of people hanging their hat on the IHT advantages...but the can change too. I did it to mitigate tax at the time....it felt like it wasn’t really my money anyway. Ie £1000 net in probably added £2200 into the pension (tax relief and employers contributions) and I couldn’t resist that return. I also fully expected things to change before I hit 50 but luckily it didn’t and it hasn’t yet. If I were 35 years old today would I do the same...probably yes.
  4. The ‘wait and see’ is good advice. The key though is in order to ‘see’ then you need to ‘watch’ and my son is now looking to buy and watching is what he will do. The thing is the price he pays will reflect sentiment at the time so he is looking now....if the pre corona price was £210k (decent 3 bed semi) with a ‘farrow and ball version at £245k, then he is hoping for maybe £140/£145k. I agree that matches affordability and is about 2003 levels. So if he finds a motivated seller and an ideal ‘forever home’ which will be a nice 3 bed semi near us then he will build in ‘potential future falls’ and offer what he thinks it will be worth. They can take it or leave it.....prices certainly won’t be stronger next year so he can wait. Guess I am saying he will wait a year or so...but will watch out for something (potentially even off market) during that time just in case.
  5. Yeah, agree this is a tricky and difficult decision. I have lived through real house rises and falls and they are unpleasant. My genuine advice is that if the home is truly a home (and not a stepping stone) then you should consider it over the short and long term. I think you are doing this. The short term. Realistically even if prices don’t fall there will be value out there....I made my pennies buying from people who needed to sell at 50% (and certainly often at 75%) of comparables. A crash isn’t needed I often bought mine just during a ‘soft market’ but what happens is EA don’t drop prices in the windows nor does every house sell at a new lower price....what happens is sales slow and those that really need to move have to sell cheap. I can certainly see at the very least a ‘soft market’ for a while The longer term Comes down to owning v renting. In the long term finishing work and not having to pay rent or mortgage makes retirement a very different experience Key is I would not buy a stepping stone house at the moment. If you Know you will need to sell it to move on then that’s expensive and you could be in negative equity. A forever home (or one that would do forever) if different because in theory you should never NEED to sell unless a change of job, location, unemployment or interest rates rise hugely (and they might in 5 years?🤷🏻‍♂️) Lots of threads on this and it would be hypocritical of me to say renting is good...but I did it in 1990 to 1992 ish and prices crashed...not like nowadays, they absolutely really slumped then we bought our second house (having sold out first in 1989) and at 22 years old I was set for life. Pure luck Overall, At this exact stage I probably wouldn’t buy...I think I would wait a while to see the impact because I believe we have some adverse economic times ahead and you may find better value. But I could be wrong and it is your money.
  6. Exactly. My dad once said....if mortgages were banned (theoretically of course) what would happen to the demand of houses and what would happen to the price? Demand would remain but prices would fall. Ability to pay is key....at 18 we found our first house and I would have given everything I had for it, in fact we did. Luckily that was 1986 and the very most I could give was massive savings from 2 years of cleaning jobs by my ‘to be’ wife and myself (almost 3 x income) and a mortgage 3.5 x income. A huge purchase price of £28k v income of about £4.5k. If they would have loaned me 50x income I probably would have taken it. luckily they wouldn’t otherwise prices at that time would have been sky high like now.
  7. I didn’t type the quote you copied? I replied to it. Do you work for a tabloid? 😆
  8. Something is going on. The support and acceptance of lockdown was unprecedented. I even accept your suggestion as possible. I think the other explanation is there was genuine concern we (the NHS) just wouldn’t cope. Whilst a few deaths ie 10’s thousands could be positioned as ‘treated, we tried but but unavoidable’ having people on the streets, untreated and waiting outside hospitals was deemed both a moral and political nightmare. Personally with the London bus driver and NHS casualties so far....I think the thing we haven’t really been told is just how contagious this virus really is even though they have explained it is very contagious. I also think the actual deaths also illustrate that IF the virus gives you symptoms and IF you have a preexisting issue eg Asthma...then you are in real trouble. I had it about 6 weeks ago and was ‘relatively’ fine albeit a few days of shivery flu, a cough, then loss of taste and smell, then sinus migraine....and normally I would have literally run it off. I couldn’t shake it for 3 full weeks in one form or another and was constantly worried it would turn into heart, breathing etc problems. I do however believe it could be used as an opportunity for businesses to report poor results, economise and blame underlying issues on the virus. And also for the government to do the same.
  9. It’s been a while...maybe they should nudge it up another 10%. Joking apart...definitely avoid. They may or may not be a crash but there will certainly be some ‘better buys’ to be had.
  10. Cash investors buying tenants and boilers 😆😆😆 Real cash rich investors out there don’t buy paper printing factories, retail corner shops, window cleaning rounds, franchise in a pub or a portfolio of tenants/boilers/voids. Cash already earned is looking for a passive income not a way to ‘buy a job’ or ‘buy a business’. I know many wealthy investors and there are exceptions....some people just love running window cleaning rounds, running printing factories or indeed running property portfolios. They are not the norm. The norm is passive investors who may even buy into property funds but the last thing they want it tenants, boilers, contractors and emergency call outs. Even those who use an agent still have ‘the stress’, the risk and a hugely illiquid asset that at certain points in time can be almost impossible to sell. BTL exploded not with cash but with debt. It was a way to acquire wealth (admittedly as I have done via developing) but it was never a way to invest wealth. Prices should now drop, seen it before and will see it again. However reality is just how much the government continues to intervene in the meantime (particularly as they may use ‘national emergency’ to pump even more money into housing if they think they can get away with it) to keep these daft prices afloat. Reality is prices are way too much...average salary should cover average house price at an average interest rate. Anyone who thinks things are ok as they are where a newly qualified teacher can’t buy a 3 bed semi in the town they teach us either ok, normal or sustainable indefinitely is deluded.
  11. I asked a friend about his trip to Mexico. I liked the idea of a South American trip, culture, rivers, jungles, desert....his answer was “the food in the hotel was great. All inclusive which included some branded beers.” Yep, sounds like he wanted to spend £8k because spending more makes things better. However, he didn’t but didn’t want to do anything other than sit in the hotel and enjoy the food and drink. In terms of mindset changes I am not sure...we may see people going crazy and ‘enjoying’ themselves even more, some will be more prudent and I think the outcome is really difficult to predict. I do think we may see in the short term (ie the first 3/6 months) afterwards markets will recover and good news stories will appear....and that will be the time to sell. Because medium term the bad news stories and ‘the bill’ will start becoming more prominent.
  12. Leeds to Pisa was often £43 each (return) for us and we used that a lot. One year we flew to Rome and flew back from Pisa (Jet 2 and Ryanair). A full monty tri city holiday staying a B&Bs for very little money. The Ryanair service and extras were positioned by the press as a ‘con’ but I never thought they were. Okay, the headline was cheaper than the end price and if you wanted to sit together everything was extra but that was/is part of the course. Bit annoying but the end price was still unbeatable. Even BA to the US (via London) was often only £350/£400 for us. I always compared our holidays to Victorian travellers, how massive the transport costs used to be (eg titanic ticket prices relative to earnings....albeit not the best trip to have taken).....and I felt hugely privileged to be able to take advantage. Even the cost of food (which people moaned about) was ‘relatively good value....eg a chunky kitkat and a cuppa for £2.50 seems a lot, but no more than a cafe and at 30,000 feet really if you really want a cuppa then they could ask £15. I often bought extras because I wanted the service to remain and since 2002 we always start our flights from Leeds Bradford airport and recommend it to others rather than a long drive and hotel in London. I selfishly hope it all returns but I doubt it will. At least the environment will benefit...and that’s a genuine comment.
  13. Love the way you put Tony Mendez (Ben Affleck) 😆😆. Yes it was a good film and those useless Brits and Canadians always add something to the story 🧐 I guess people (eg in-laws) will do as they please if people then help them out.... Your good lady should have been sorting out the will and spending the inheritance 😉 but I genuinely guess she didn’t really have an option other than to help them out. I knew a few people living in hotel rooms in Spain having flown out when it was already known to be a big risk. Big on Facebook etc...seemed to give them something that made their lives look a bit ‘interesting’. 😬
  14. Thx, And that’s genuinely awful. I am sure that there are some interesting facts but ‘the news show’ doesn’t give details just a skim of the surface to grab a headline...I don’t search for the truth anymore. Happier to fill the gaps (rightly and wrongly) myself. It’s the same with journalist quizzing the briefings...great opportunity to help a nation, ask great questions and challenging questions if appropriate. But no, just ask something that can get you-tubed...stopped listening to the press and politicians which is a bit of a worry really, probably getting too old.
  15. Mentioned a few times examples of this. One example, we looked for a 3 bed semi at £259k (worth £210k) and we viewed because it had sat in the market over 6 months and ‘she was desperate to sell’. She was asking £259k because a developed example (farrow and ball etc) had sold for £265k but hers was clean but very dated. On inspection she told us she wanted to move to the South Coast to be close to her family....we offered what it was worth, rejected and she died a year later, house unsold. Sellers can ask what they want (tactically high and low might work), then have an open house, several viewings and take the best offer you get, in a good market maybe even squeeze the buyer a little to see if they will budge their first offer upwards if need be.......but don’t base your selling price on your asking price. I have seen dozens of examples where people’s lives have been put on hold for years because they don’t drop a few % or listen to the offers they are getting.
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