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Everything posted by adarmo

  1. UK imports more from the USA than Russia and USA is further away. Proximity, is of marginal benefit these days. If you disagree look at shining beacons of trade and wealth surrounded by dirt poor nations (Singapore for instance). They have a plan. Great. Bit late though? Also the fact they've given military aid to Ukraine which dwarfs the value of payments made to Russia is sort of like offering to sweep up after you've burned down the village. Why is the EU still buying stuff from Russia that doesn't travel on pipelines either? UK imports from Russia will be below 1% of total this year and zero next year. We've always had a good and sensible energy security policy.
  2. The EU provided even more help to Russia...... Great job guys! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61785111 "The European Union made up 61% of these imports, worth approximately $59bn."
  3. Did it impact all countries exactly the same? So how can you strip out what is Covid and what is Brexit? You simply cannot! I disagree, EU wasn't free trade, it was free trade within an area and having global trade agreements negotiated to suit a handful of self interests. CAP for France, Automotive for Germany, Finance for UK etc etc. For too slow and cumbersome. If no free trade deals can get close to the EU then why, despite being in the EU, do we import so much from China lol! Listen to yourself. Where is growth coming for the next 100 years? Not the EU. I get some people are so in love with the EU they can't see outside of it but frankly it's ridiculous. USA is the UK's biggest trading partner. If you pretend EU is a country then it's bigger than the USA, sure, but what's even bigger is 'Not EU' pretending to be country. Yes I understand what core inflation shows and it's not better, it just shows you something different. You have selected periods before the impact of the financial crash. That's fine. We can disagree on timings all day over who is being selective. Zoom right on on USD. There's a multi decade trend in declining value of GBP. When USA declared independence it was $5:£1. in the 1990s it was $2:£1. Now it's about $1.25:£1. The Euro chart is nonsensical pre 1999 FYI. Since the time it was invented the GBP has lost ground to the Euro, pre GFC, post GFC, post Brexit. Your charts do not support the conclusion about the GBP recovering. It would seem the EUR was weak since the same pattern of strengthening wasn't observed in GBP:USD. If GBP was recovering it would have done so against the USD too. I do not pretend Brexit was some genius master stroke but I do believe on balance, in the medium to longer term we're better off with the freedom and flexibility to do things our way and at our speed. A great example of this was the delivery of Stinger missiles and Anti-Tank missiles to Ukraine. Brexit is far from the disaster being presented which is really the biggest own goal of the remain camp second to calling all Leavers thick.
  4. I've also seen a crash in the number of times 'no coiner' is being used on Facebook. Probably be viewed as a compliment these days . A fool and his money are soon parted. I'm sorry but I've been saying it for years, Bitcoin is a mania and the only incredible thing about it is people not seeing that. As for the clowns converting their country to run on it they're totally screwed. I suspect they knew they would be and it was a way of enriching themselves at the expensive of others.
  5. It's a false argument. We'll never be able to untangle Brexit from Covid. During Covid UK was better than most of EU IIRC. There's always stochastic variance and out of the G7 how often in quarterly reports would you expect any one nation to be at the bottom of growth, or inflation, or unemployment? Yes it could still happen, but it hasn't yet and tbh if it does happen I doubt it'll have anything to do with Brexit, rather some other financial crisis or otherwise. Broken clock syndrome at this point. If we state that Brexit will cause the end of teh world then at some point, the world will end and that prediction will come true, though there's no causal link proven. It seems then trade deals don't increase GDP? The general view is less nuanced. Free trade makes everyone better off. I view a heavily restricted trade deal that takes decades to negotiate with the EU because Wallomia in Belgium doesn't like the definition of a certain Canadian Cheese (actually caused the Canadian delegation to return home sacking off a 7 year negotiation - which was eventually signed but it's ridiculous). An example of a trade deal that increases uk GDP would be any free trade deal. You don't expect these to happen overnight do you? But do you expect them to take more, or less time than within the EU? Do you think if it's not a free trade deal that it'll be more favourable to UK than if it were negotiated with another 27 countries in mind too? Inflation in EU 8.1% average. UK 9%. Identical to Belgium and Netherlands with very similar economies. What do you think is causing this? Brexit? Or funny money from Covid and massive hikes in energy costs which filter through to all other areas of the economy? What did the GBP/EUR do from launch in 2002 to 2014? You'll note 2015 was a spike and actually the GBP/EUR rate now is 10% better than at points in 2009. In other words you're using favourable dates to support a false view . Pound has been weakening against the USD and EUR for years. If you think it's down to Brexit then fine but that won't enable any useful discussion around the real causes and how best to fix it.
  6. Sounds lovely. You still can spend 6 months there though. You could even choose to live there for your retirement if you so desired? I might retire to France, but I'd make a commitment to be there and pay tax there. I would suggest you move toe a provider that doesn't price gauge. How will blaming others improve your position? Yeah, he's nothing of the sort though is he? Using dictator to describe someone who narrowly missed being kicked out by his own party exercising a free vote makes it sound like hysteria tbh. I guess all those voting against him are about to be dispatched with? Pr perhaps he's democratically elected to parliament and chosen as the head of the party by the fellow MPs. He'll go soon enough but he's not a dictator. By lurching to the right I mean hard right wing parties, like Le Penn in France, AFD in Germany and Brothers of Italy in Italy.
  7. LOL, there were multiple predictions from the experts and none have come true. Recession? Nope. Unemployment? Nope. House price crash? Nope. The 20% fall in house prices was from the Treasury: The Treasury had forecast that Brexit would prompt a fall in house prices of up to 18% https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jun/24/house-price-fall-could-follow-brexit-say-experts The trade deals haven't happened yet lol. In the long term show me a nation that is worse off for being independent, free to negotiate trade deals and operate without a slow and inflexible bureaucracy with multiple vetos? Will it take time for this to manifest itself? Yes! The UK was doing much better last year, and is doing pretty well this year. GDP growth is, anyway, a very narrow view of things. How is unemployment in the magnificent EU? Lots to disagree with but the inflation measure is a very contentious one. France has a totally different energy mix from the UK as it's nuclear powered. It is true about UK being a HUB for EU but we relocated our HUB to Barcelona a few years ago. 95% of the employees were not UK citizens. That aside, inflation is as measured by consumers (The 'C' in CPI). If the EU member states are cutting taxes or subsidising costs to consumers this doesn't show up. I think if you look a little deeper you'll see its more complicated and that they're (aside from France) much more vulnerable to energy price swings. Governments are simply choosing to shelter their citizens by paying the difference. This is a pretty stupid policy imho and interferes with the market economy which would resolve these issues in time. Forex market doesn't seem to think that. Last twelve months GBP is down against the USD and up (marginally) against the EUR. https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1Y This suggests people are seeking safety in a dollar rather than GBP collapsing lol. So rather it is a strong dollar, not a weak selection of other currencies. I bought my house in 2017 after the Brexit vote. Since then it's increased in value by about 25%! I've been promoted twice! I really do not see a downside. I suspect people suffering or not having a great time of things will search around and try to blame anything for things. Brexit, Covid, Tories, Immigrants etc. I think to all intents and purposes it's made F-all difference to everyone's lives. On the plus side it does seem that we can't import people to work for virtually nothing any more so wages for certain jobs are increasing fast. This does seem to fly in the face of the assertion by Remain that EU membership hadn't impaired the earnings of an entire segment of society. Then there's the more insidious side to the EU. Remember when people had a vote in Ireland and in Greece and kept returning the wrong result? Vote again. And again until it's what the EU wants. Then no more voting. If nothing else that is right there a reason to leave. Their meddling in Ukraine arguably triggered the scenario we're now in (not defending Russia here but they must have been very concerned about being backed into a corner by EU/NATO to react in this way). Finally, I've visited EU twice in the last two months. My phone bill didn't increase, there were no roaming charges. That's pretty much all EU ever did for most people. Plus now you get stamps in your passport . Talking to lot of Europeans they seem to be lurching to the right. Bit concerning innit.
  8. An Italian, a Greek and a Spaniard all go out for dinner. Who pays? Germany I thin ka good lesson of what will happen is the GBP vers DMK when UK was in the ERM. In that instance interest rates in UK went to the moon very rapidly to shore up the value of GBP. In a scenario where the currencies used are the same I'm not sure where the blowout would be but would expect high (very high) inflation and a fall in the value of the Euro relative to USD and the lesser reserve currencies.
  9. Identical to Luxembourg and Norway, we have an economy with some overlap to each of theirs. What I like most about this chart is it flies plainly in the face of the doom and gloom predicted by the Remain campaign. Where's also the 20% fall in house prices? The growth at 0 in 2023 I'd take with a pinch of salt too. I've seen similar from the IMF, the same body that in 2007 predicted a less than 50% chance of a recession. Literally a circus. Nobody has a crystal ball. Dealing with certainty then we have huge uncertainty in the run up to and after the referendum as it's not clear the extent of Brexit and what it looks like. In the face of no clear outcome business investment stalls. This is totally expected. In the long run I'd expect any nation that is free to do its own trade deals to have a generally better outcome. In the short term there will be disruption. It does rather seem than the Remain camp are of the impression that anyone voting leave imagined 10% growth year on year and an end to all economic problems in the UK. That's not the case anymore than staying in the EU would solve out problems. High inflation will be a huge test of the Euro now. Interesting to see monetary policy in a one size fits all environment. It's never worked for Greece but Greece is insignificant. Italy would be a real concern.
  10. It seems you're arguing from a micro and macro position simultaneously? The risk of losing your job is micro. If you suspect you won't or have savings enough for a couple of years ;living you're fine. You are correct on the macro level. Markets are made at the margins. This though suggests you're trying to time the market? My experience of doing this myself in 2009 wasn't great.
  11. Lol, that line has been trotted out since the industrial revolution.
  12. I'd automate the tube. Glad that DLR and LizzieLine (in part) have this function. They don't like it? Leave. If they're so badly paid why is it still a closed shop?
  13. I'd say rates are basically the same as they were two years ago. I don't think I've been super lucky. Most people are getting excellent nominal pay rises this year (see link in post above). Obviously being made redundant is not great at all, certainly in 2009 with things really in the doldrums but we had virtually zero inflation back then too. Lots of what ifs and all risks but most people don't get made redundant in a recession.
  14. Most people are. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/may2022
  15. Yeah, been lucky for sure! True, but I should think most student loaners don't have such a big mortgage? Plus it's getting the £300/month increase over 5 years, or whatever the fixed term is for. If you've just bought a house with a low deposit you're likely to have a better LTV in 2 or 5 years time anyway so you'll get a more competitive rate at that point too.
  16. Quickly running numbers. I pay £1,045 on a £371K mortgage fixed for 5 years at 0.99%. 35 year term. In 5 years time it's been paid down to £321K 5% on £321K on a 30 year term takes it to £1,745. I don't expect the best rate in 4.5 years to be 5%... but even if it is.... my pay rise this year added just under £400 to my take home. Reason for such a raise? Inflation. Another year of this and I'm pretty comfortable the increase in salary would more than cover the increase in rates as would most people. With inflation eroding the debt it makes sense (in real terms at least). This possibly also explains why people are just buying up houses like crazy right now. Saving for a house with low inflation is one thing, but trying to maintain your real value of savings at say £50K with interest rates at best at 1.5% (Chase Bank) then you need to be saving £400 a month just to stand still..... or you could buy a house and flip the tables and have your £370K debt pile get eroded at 10% a year instead...... All in real terms of course.
  17. I think people are concerned about inflation and view tangible assets, especially property, as a safe place and good inflation hedge. It's like the QE wave and the BBL and Furlough waves all merging and crashing into each other at the same time. Bonkers indeed. There's nothing of any quality on the market near me. I keep looking to see what my options are if I pull the rip chord on my project house here. Even as a high mortgaged homeowner I'm wanting a good correction here. 20% would be good. 25% really good. 30% bad though.... for me at least.
  18. All went south when Cameron and Osbourne left imho. At that point we were on the glide path of pushing BTL out and taxing them as they walked through that door. Happy days. 40 hospitals to build and 7 new nukes at my last count. He did scrap the bridge to Northern Ireland though so there's some saving there . Hospitals no good if no staff to work in them. North Korea has a lovely hospital in the capital. It's immaculate, like it's never been used. Yeah I agree. Normally it's the economy 'stupid' (not you) that loses the election for them so falling house prices, rising costs of living etc all bad for Tories if still here in 2024. Watched an interesting documentary last night on NetFlix. It covers the difference between the right and the left. On one hand we have equality of outcome (the left) on the other we have inequality and that's deserved because people work harder or are smarter etc (the right). What people really want though is fairness I think. That's a difficult thing to do but it'd get my vote. Most accept some inequality but most also do not think unfairness is OK. It's not fine in sports, or at work, or within families and yet we seem fine with it in society. Weird innit?
  19. How would UK still being part of EU change Russia's strategic advantage of holding a land bridge from mainland to Crimea? What treaty exists between EU and Ukraine for defence? UK actually sent hundreds of stinger missiles before EU and in advance of the invasion into Ukraine. Would this have been the case if still part of EU? USA and UK were warning of Russia's intentions for months and EU chose to look the other way. One might even make the case that the EU caused the entire problems there by getting involved in Ukraine when it was a 'given' that Russia wanted a buffer zone between us and them. After past experiences with European powers one can hardly blame them for that! Clearly the war is dastardly. Very nasty business indeed but I think you're being awfully one sided with your arguments and I'm not sure how well they stand up to the question above?
  20. Stop living in fear mate. It's ridiculous. On a call earlier with a colleague who isn't even vaccinated and has Covid. He's unwell but that's it despite being pretty overweight. Lockdowns were to save 90 year old un-deads (most survived it regardless) and to stop the NHS getting overwhelmed. Instead of locking down the people likely to cram up the NHS they applied it to everyone. Ridiculous. How exactly am I making excuses for them? It seems you think I'm supporting them by attacking the cretins that think it's an issue lol. People will follow the media off a cliff of emotion these days. I think they should all go but not for having a fricking drink. It's beyond ridiculous. Get off your high horse and have a little think about it, monsieur.
  21. Yes agreed! I've bought a bungalow and I'm waiting on a planning decision. Garage will be 6mx7m (big enough for two LWB VW campers!) with good pitched roof (detached from main home so could convert later into annex) and want to turn bungalow into house and extend into the large (too large - mowing the lawn takes nearly 30 minutes and took 3 hours to scarify it yesterday!) garden. If people have the patience and motivation I'd recommend buying something needing everything doing but that is liveable. That way you're paying no premium for anything inside that you'll rip out anyway. The garden sold mine to me. the back is around 4,500 sqft and I can get 4 or 5 cars on the front if needed. Brother has a new build and doesn't have anything to do but the garden is tiny (not a bad thing really) but the because of this the neighbours are on top of him. While his house is detached his garage is not and therefore has a shared driveway which is tandem so one car always blocking the other in.
  22. And millions did not. Sweden being the case in point here. I did my best too. But we were all robbed. Very early on even the PM joked catch covid, you'll live longer in response to the stats on the average age of those dying with it. Who is re-writing history? I'm not labelling anyone a sheep, some would consider me to be one for getting vaccinated though...... You make exactly the point that the reason for those rules was because many people are too dumb to think for themselves while actually the risks are very low if some basic precautions are taken. Having a drink with people you work with all day long is not a risk enhancer. It's purely emotions getting the better of logic. Anyway, I suspect he's close to going now but let's see what the vote tonight brings .
  23. £360 per household though which is who will benefit. That's approaching 20% off the typical bill. It's weeing in the wind and it'll make even less of an impact IF the cap increases to £2,800 of course. Agree. Inflation can't subside until people are burning less and new sources come on stream. Remove funding to support supply and using it to stoke further demand is plain stupid imho. Thankfully it's a global market so the overall impact to UK inflation should be negligible. It's more the principle.
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