Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[winkie]

Mistakes were made....but not by me.

[Grayphil]

1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

Not really.

The sooner you eradicate the virus, the sooner the economy can be restored to full capacity.

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/filmmakers-are-returning-to-shoot-in-new-zealand-as-it-emerges-as-covid-free-haven/ar-BB15TXiQ

 

OK they granted a special exemption for them, they also did that for the couple that came and gave them the latest dose of Covid! 

With a pandemic they just cannot open up to the world, or eventually what has happened to most other countries will happen there. 

I am actually a lot more interested to see how under control this is, during winter. As you can see they have had one or 2 cases ever since they tested the couple, as it says themselves they are a lockdown free country now. 

[Riedquat]

8 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

 I am actually a lot more interested to see how under control this is, during winter. As you can see they have had one or 2 cases ever since they tested the couple, as it says themselves they are a lockdown free country now. 

It's winter in NZ now.

[14stFlyer]

4 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Versus the 'control expt'? A triumphant success.

To date:

New Zealand pop. 5 million. Deaths: 22.

Sweden pop 10 million. Deaths: 5161.

so far...

Who knows what happens next.  Perhaps Sweden, happy to open up to foreign travel and business and a post-COVID recovery?  While New Zealand languishes in self-inflicted isolation for years?  

[nightowl]

5 hours ago, zugzwang said:

HPC has become a Doomsday Cult.

Goodness know what Sigmund Freud would make of some of the posts?

HPC does have a disproportionate number of grumpy gits to be fair! 

[kzb]

4 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

Wow, you haven't even bothered to check that even the corrupt vaccine patent owning CDC say the opposite to you.

"Also, there’s no evidence that the coronavirus spreads through water in pools (or hot tubs, spas, or water play areas), per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)................“The coronavirus doesn’t survive in chlorinated water,” infectious disease expert Amesh A. Adalja, MD, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Maryland

https://www.live5news.com/2020/05/13/fact-or-fiction-will-pool-chlorine-kill-covid-/

https://eu.azcentral.com/story/entertainment/life/health/2020/05/08/does-chlorine-kill-coronavirus-can-you-get-covid-19-from-public-swimming-pool-water-slide/3088745001/

Point #1, just because "there is no evidence" means very little.  Maybe there is no evidence because no-one has looked for it?  Or maybe all public pools have been closed so of course there has been no virus transmission by that route?

Point #2 there is a minimum chlorine concentration to kill coronaviruses.  Pools have only 2-4 ppm.  I can't find the reference just now but from memory you want >50ppm chlorine.  The recommended cleaning solution is 0.12% sodium hypochlorite, orders of magnitude higher than a swimming pool.

I've seen people blowing snot out their noses into the water, spluttering and choking and spitting.  There is a lot of evidence that certain individuals secretly urinate in the water.  The average person has 0.1g of faecal matter in their ******** area.

Having said all that, the risk is likely low, primarily because of the huge dilution factor.

[Confusion of VIs]

36 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

It's winter in NZ now.

? You would have thought our intrepid sailor would have known that.

Edited June 24, 2020 by Confusion of VIs

[Confusion of VIs]

22 minutes ago, 14stFlyer said:

so far...

Who knows what happens next.  Perhaps Sweden, happy to open up to foreign travel and business and a post-COVID recovery?  While New Zealand languishes in self-inflicted isolation for years?  

Sweden is probably only 10% of the way to herd immunity and a the current rate of infection, like the UK many years away from reaching it. 

It is already trying to open up to foreign travel but apparently is surprised that almost no one else wants to let their population visit Sweden or be visited by Swedes.  

[Drat]

16 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Sweden is probably only 10% of the way to herd immunity and a the current rate of infection, like the UK many years away from reaching it. 

It is already trying to open up to foreign travel but apparently is surprised that almost no one else wants to let their population visit Sweden or be visited by Swedes.  

This is a real question and not making a point.  Has Sweden had to increase its national debt the same way other countries have had to (paying for furlough etc)?

[kzb]

4 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

Wow, you haven't even bothered to check that even the corrupt vaccine patent owning CDC say the opposite to you.

"Also, there’s no evidence that the coronavirus spreads through water in pools (or hot tubs, spas, or water play areas), per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)................“The coronavirus doesn’t survive in chlorinated water,” infectious disease expert Amesh A. Adalja, MD, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Maryland

https://www.live5news.com/2020/05/13/fact-or-fiction-will-pool-chlorine-kill-covid-/

https://eu.azcentral.com/story/entertainment/life/health/2020/05/08/does-chlorine-kill-coronavirus-can-you-get-covid-19-from-public-swimming-pool-water-slide/3088745001/

Look at this esp. Table 2.  10ppm is ineffective.

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/expanim1978/37/3/37_3_341/_pdf/-char/en

[Confusion of VIs]

13 minutes ago, Drat said:

This is a real question and not making a point.  Has Sweden had to increase its national debt the same way other countries have had to (paying for furlough etc)?

It's economy has contracted much less than its neighbours but they are opening back up now, still too early to say how it will play out. 

[Sour Mash]

1 hour ago, 14stFlyer said:

so far...

Who knows what happens next.  Perhaps Sweden, happy to open up to foreign travel and business and a post-COVID recovery?  While New Zealand languishes in self-inflicted isolation for years?  

 

That's the bottom line.

The hope would be that a vaccine or effective treatment will emerge sooner rather than later but that is not guaranteed.

 

But at least their geographic isolation makes it more possible for them to open up fully between hopefully rare bouts of imported infection - even if you could somehow wipe out the Virus in GB/Ireland we would be much more vulnerable to re-infection on a frequent basis.  You can forget about any country on continental Europe/ Africa/ Asia/ The Americas being able to open fully.

[steve99]

24 minutes ago, Drat said:

This is a real question and not making a point.  Has Sweden had to increase its national debt the same way other countries have had to (paying for furlough etc)?

Some common sense by our government would admit that the UK has far more ££ Trillions of tax free money hived off in our protected tax free havens waiting to be used and should be used.  Personally I think we need a new non-debt based monetary system that intrinsically removes such opportunities and deletes the value of tax free offshored loot.  Clawing back this filthy lucre will place us above many countries post virus and for that matter post brexit.

Edited June 24, 2020 by steve99

[Sour Mash]

New, much more infective 'D641G' strain emerges:
https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-events/press-room/2020/20200612-choe-farzan-coronavirus-spike-mutation.html

Seems to have been primarily infecting Europe and Eastern USA but now spreading Worldwide.

 

Also, speculation from Chinese that it might not be stopped by anotibodies of recovered cases of earlier infection from other strains:

https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-d614g-mutation-coronavirus-strains-from-europe-could-render-those-recovered-from-earlier-strains-defenseless-according-to-china

... When you p1ss in the wind, you get your own back.

 

 

 

[Grayphil]

2 hours ago, Riedquat said:

It's winter in NZ now.

That's why I mentioned it! 

I was in auz in feb/March and it was blisteringly hot.. I mention it because I'm obviously a bit obsessed with vitamin D, and the role it plays. 

New Zealand has a not too dissimilar climate to the UK though just the other way round, 

[Grayphil]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

? You would have thought our intrepid sailor would have known that.

Yup, that was kinda the point! 

[zugzwang]

38 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

 

That's the bottom line.

The hope would be that a vaccine or effective treatment will emerge sooner rather than later but that is not guaranteed.

 

But at least their geographic isolation makes it more possible for them to open up fully between hopefully rare bouts of imported infection - even if you could somehow wipe out the Virus in GB/Ireland we would be much more vulnerable to re-infection on a frequent basis.  You can forget about any country on continental Europe/ Africa/ Asia/ The Americas being able to open fully.

Almost 50 countries have Green Zone status (single-figure, or zero infections per diem on a rolling basis). Asian, African and European states among them. Facilitating Green Zone to Green Zone movement while discouraging Red to Green will protect hard-fought gains, keep everyone safe and enable sustainable economic growth.

Even within countries this approach is best. Cuomo has just imposed a 14-day quarantine on travellers to New York (Green) from Red Zone states like Texas and Florida!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/new-york-new-jersey-and-connecticut-impose-14-day-quarantine-on-travelers-from-coronavirus-hotspot-states.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

Quote

“We worked very hard to get the viral transmission rate down. We don’t want to see it go up because a lot of people come into this region and they can literally bring the infection with them,” Cuomo said at a press conference with New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy and Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont. “Because what happens in New York happens in New Jersey and happens in Connecticut.”

Cuomo said travelers coming from states with a high infection rate will be subject to the quarantine. The infection rate is based on the number of infections per 100,000 residents on a 7-day rolling average. People who don’t voluntarily quarantine for 14 days will be subject to fines and a mandatory quarantine. He said the fines will be $2,000 for the first violation, $5,000 for the second and up to $10,000 if they cause harm.

Individuals will largely be trusted to self-isolate on their own, he said, noting that the penalties for noncompliance are steep if someone violates the new rule and gets caught. The Port Authority will make travel records available if needed, he said. 

...

On Friday, Cuomo warned that more people will die if states that have reopened their economies too quickly don’t take actions to curb recent spikes in cases. 

“More people will die, and it doesn’t have to be that way. Forget the politics, be smart, open the economy intelligently and save lives at the same time. That’s what we showed works in New York,” he said Friday. 

 

[Bob8]

Ten years ago, this placed had lots of anti-vaccince nutters. Anyone agreeing with them was proof it was obvious and anyone disagreeing was clearly blind sheeple. They were all idiots then. The conspiracy nutters is indeed nutters.

[Grayphil]

1 hour ago, kzb said:

Point #1, just because "there is no evidence" means very little.  Maybe there is no evidence because no-one has looked for it?  Or maybe all public pools have been closed so of course there has been no virus transmission by that route?

Point #2 there is a minimum chlorine concentration to kill coronaviruses.  Pools have only 2-4 ppm.  I can't find the reference just now but from memory you want >50ppm chlorine.  The recommended cleaning solution is 0.12% sodium hypochlorite, orders of magnitude higher than a swimming pool.

I've seen people blowing snot out their noses into the water, spluttering and choking and spitting.  There is a lot of evidence that certain individuals secretly urinate in the water.  The average person has 0.1g of faecal matter in their ******** area.

Having said all that, the risk is likely low, primarily because of the huge dilution factor.

The pools have a dosing mechanism, it measures the amounts and doses appropriately, the pool staff have to take readings, I believe every 4 hours. .the 50 ppm is to wash vegetables. 2 different things,  

That's why you shower before entering a pool.. 

The vegetables are unwashed before being dumped in 50ppm, it neutralises chlorine pretty quickly because of the dirt. Meaning fresh water in prep sinks and fresh tablets each batch. 

The chlorine in swimming pools is sufficient to kill covid on a body or in the water, the changing rooms would be the biggest issue. 

3 ppm is safe to swim in, and ingest. 

50 ppm, it won't harm too much but could kill more stomach bacteroa

100ppm is what is normally used to clean down kitchen surfaces

200 ppm is a guideline for sanitizing during outbreal levels. 

Anything over 200 ppm is considered poonous.

You could of course check this, but trust me it's correct! (20 years either doing, or supervising something called a 3 bucket system of wash, rinse and sanitize) 

 

[Grayphil]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Sweden is probably only 10% of the way to herd immunity and a the current rate of infection, like the UK many years away from reaching it. 

It is already trying to open up to foreign travel but apparently is surprised that almost no one else wants to let their population visit Sweden or be visited by Swedes.  

Wrong, u haven't been keeping up ha e you... Even after it was posted directly to you! 

[Grayphil]

1 hour ago, Drat said:

This is a real question and not making a point.  Has Sweden had to increase its national debt the same way other countries have had to (paying for furlough etc)?

Yes, they did pay some industries 80% just not as many, pubs and restaurant no, but tourism yes (ex Swedish gf, trust me, I asked already) 

[Grayphil]

58 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

New, much more infective 'D641G' strain emerges:
https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-events/press-room/2020/20200612-choe-farzan-coronavirus-spike-mutation.html

Seems to have been primarily infecting Europe and Eastern USA but now spreading Worldwide.

 

Also, speculation from Chinese that it might not be stopped by anotibodies of recovered cases of earlier infection from other strains:

https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-d614g-mutation-coronavirus-strains-from-europe-could-render-those-recovered-from-earlier-strains-defenseless-according-to-china

... When you p1ss in the wind, you get your own back.

 

 

 

Yes, this is why I'm interested in NZ, right now, they have got out European strain, and not the original one.and it's their winter 

It would help answer so so many questions

[Brendan110_0]

2 hours ago, kzb said:

Point #1, just because "there is no evidence" means very little.  Maybe there is no evidence because no-one has looked for it?  Or maybe all public pools have been closed so of course there has been no virus transmission by that route?

Point #2 there is a minimum chlorine concentration to kill coronaviruses.  Pools have only 2-4 ppm.  I can't find the reference just now but from memory you want >50ppm chlorine.  The recommended cleaning solution is 0.12% sodium hypochlorite, orders of magnitude higher than a swimming pool.

I've seen people blowing snot out their noses into the water, spluttering and choking and spitting.  There is a lot of evidence that certain individuals secretly urinate in the water.  The average person has 0.1g of faecal matter in their ******** area.

Having said all that, the risk is likely low, primarily because of the huge dilution factor.

That and a constant recirculation of water through filters.

[Confusion of VIs]

52 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

Wrong, u haven't been keeping up ha e you... Even after it was posted directly to you! 

It's just one view/indicator and not consistent with many other indicators. Nice if it turns out to be true but it probably won't be.

[Peter Hun]

3 hours ago, 14stFlyer said:

Who knows what happens next.  Perhaps Sweden, happy to open up to foreign travel and business and a post-COVID recovery?  While New Zealand languishes in self-inflicted isolation for years?

 

Quote

Sweden Tries Out a New Status: Pariah State

Fearing the country’s lax approach to combating the coronavirus, Sweden’s Scandinavian neighbors have all closed their borders to Swedes.

Long considered the lucky holders of one of the best passports for seamless global travel, Swedes now find themselves with few options for moving about the European Union. Most countries in the bloc have reopened their borders to member nations, but only France, Italy, Spain and Croatia are welcoming Swedes without restrictions.

In several countries, like the Netherlands and Cyprus, they are banned completely. Austria demands a health certificate. Greece makes Swedes quarantine for at least a week, even if they test negative for the coronavirus.

While the emergency laws and “strong travel advice” have upset many Swedes, nothing has been more painful than the behavior of their neighbors, said Ann Linde, Sweden’s foreign minister.

“We are supposed to sit here in our corner of shame, and the worst part is that you’re savoring it,” she said, referring to Sweden’s neighbors. “All Norwegians, all Danes and all Finns are loving that the Swedes aren’t welcome anywhere. I long for you, yet you don’t long for me.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/22/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-pariah-scandinavia.html