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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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HOLA441
4 hours ago, highcontrast said:

Looks like Proffessor Cummings decided which vaccines got £10's of millions of tax payer funding whilst ignoring other solutions.

https://www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-politics-whitehall-2020-6-mystery-over-who-approved-126m-vaccine-investment/

Government refuses to say who decided which UK coronavirus projects received millions in public money

The government has refused to clarify how it decided to spend more than £126 million on two experimental vaccine projects at Oxford and Imperial while not funding other vaccine projects at Bristol and Nottingham.

This money dwarfs the £48.6 million that national funding agency, UK Research and Innovation has so far invested into more than 114 research projects responding to the Covid-19 pandemic through its two major calls.

But funding for the university-led projects at Oxford and Imperial did not go through the usual UKRI granting mechanisms and all the departments or bodies involved in Covid-19 response have declined to answer questions about what peer review—if any—was involved in the decisions. Other vaccine efforts, including one at a spinout from University of Bristol, and another one at University of Nottingham have had no government funding for their efforts.

Imperial College London and University of Oxford did not reply to a request for comment on the matter. But Robin Shattock, a professor at Imperial who leads its vaccine project, told The Times in April that “someone from Whitehall got in touch” and then health secretary Matt Hancock told him over the phone he “had the budget on his table and asked, ‘Should I sign this?’”

The mystery over exactly who approved the award of such large sums has been deepened by Dominic Cummings, the Prime Minister’s chief aide, using vaccine funding as one of the reasons he needed to travel from Durham back to London, a journey that potentially broke lockdown rules."

This potentially relevant article was referenced a while ago on HPC:

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2020/05/why-barnard-castle/

 

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HOLA442

This is why death isn't the main issue and why you don't ever want to catch this virus:

 

Scientists just beginning to understand the many health problems caused by COVID-19

“We thought this was only a respiratory virus. Turns out, it goes after the pancreas. It goes after the heart. It goes after the liver, the brain, the kidney and other organs. We didn’t appreciate that in the beginning,” said Dr. Eric Topol, a cardiologist and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California.v

In addition to respiratory distress, patients with COVID-19 can experience blood clotting disorders that can lead to strokes, and extreme inflammation that attacks multiple organ systems. The virus can also cause neurological complications that range from headache, dizziness and loss of taste or smell to seizures and confusion.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-effects/scientists-just-beginning-to-understand-the-many-health-problems-caused-by-covid-19-idUKKBN23X1BZ

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HOLA443
52 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

I believe they may have delayed the pain of the Covid deaths for a while, but have experienced nearly the same level or economic pain as we have. 

However. We have got over the worst of ours now, and maybe they still have it all to come. 

 

No there hasn't been a delay to the pain. They've slowed it to something manageable and appear to be in relative control.

Here it nearly went completely out of control and we appear to be barely on top of the situation. 

Hence those countries the governments ratings have gone up, presumably in part by looking at our mess. And vice versa our governments ratings have done down. 

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HOLA445
1 hour ago, The Spaniard said:

This potentially relevant article was referenced a while ago on HPC:

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2020/05/why-barnard-castle/

 

I also heard this from a fairly senior person in one of the other large drugs firms.

 

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HOLA446
Quote

Coronavirus: UK on course for further 30,000 deaths unless Boris Johnson changes approach, Independent Sage warns
Forecast of grim toll by anniversary of pandemic next year - after drop in infections stalled and with 'Super Saturday' looming

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-coronavirus-deaths-change-course-lockdown-plan-sage-a9587541.html

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HOLA448

Wel if any city will be the litmus test for relaxing the lockdown rules, it will be Liverpool, every street is partying, no social distancing. At all.. Its a lot of drinks, a lot of singing (supposedly the most dangerous thing, hence no theatres open) 

Liverpool is going mad, and it's only 1700. 

I'm not really a footie fan, but it's madness the scenes here

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HOLA449
27 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

Wel if any city will be the litmus test for relaxing the lockdown rules, it will be Liverpool, every street is partying, no social distancing. At all.. Its a lot of drinks, a lot of singing (supposedly the most dangerous thing, hence no theatres open) 

Liverpool is going mad, and it's only 1700. 

I'm not really a footie fan, but it's madness the scenes here

You're not embracing this I take it. ???

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HOLA4416
25 minutes ago, highcontrast said:

Ah thanks, I can see where the article i posted was basing it's findings on.

Someone on twtter seems to have summarised it well:

 

But potentially better vaccines in what count? The thing about the Oxford one is that much of the safety work had already been completed, so the possible speed to market is massive.

And my second observation, what has being an Oxford alumni got to do with money going to the other group in Imperial? Yes something to look in to buy I think it is also being blown out of proportion

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HOLA4417
1 minute ago, Drat said:

But potentially better vaccines in what count? The thing about the Oxford one is that much of the safety work had already been completed, so the possible speed to market is massive.

And my second observation, what has being an Oxford alumni got to do with money going to the other group in Imperial? Yes something to look in to buy I think it is also being blown out of proportion

RE Oxford vaccine, not a science expert but whilst safe, their previous SARs vaccine which this Covid vaccine is based on wasn't particularly effective at all, that's my understanding anyway? Happy to be corrected on that.

RE alumni...I'm guessing implied favouritism?

Taken from that article:

"...Research Professional News understands that the Vaccine Taskforce, announced on 17 April and whose chair was announced on 18 May, will assess future vaccine proposals, together with BEIS’s board of experts, and will decide whether or not to commit funds based on scientific recommendation.

The Expert Advisory Board that advises the Vaccine Taskforce announced by BEIS alongside the second batch of funding on 17 May is chaired by the chief scientist Vallance, and includes leads of both of the funded projects, Robin Shattock, a professor at Imperial, and Sarah Gilbert of the University of Oxford".

Make of that what you will.

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HOLA4418
17 hours ago, kzb said:

A few weeks back on here I was cautioning the fitness fanatics against over confidence against the virus.  I said the biggest single factor will be your genes.  Well here is a highly technical paper which contends that persons with the "wrong" variants of certain  genes are at much higher risk (if you are interested, they are SLC6A20, LZTFL1, CCR9, FYCO1, CXCR6, and XCR1 -no it means nothing to me as well).

Genomewide Association Study of Severe Covid-19 with Respiratory Failure

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2020283?query=recirc_mostViewed_railB_article

The study looks at the genes of people who were hospitalized. The only mention of healthy people is the part that says "The panels included 396 healthy volunteers" from a group that had mild or no Covid-19 symptoms.

You seem to be conflating there being genetic susceptibility as something that trumps being healthy. It doesn't.

Healthy people will also have genetic susceptibility, which can be activated by becoming unhealthy. Take inadequate sleep for example https://www.pnas.org/content/110/12/E1132.abstract

"We show that one wk of insufficient sleep alters gene expression in human blood cells, reduces the amplitude of circadian rhythms in gene expression, and intensifies the effects of subsequent acute total sleep loss on gene expression."

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/long-term-endurance-exercise-alter-genes-metabolic-health/ (I don't do this.....but still same point).

If a person is genetically susceptible they should exercise and be healthy. Health trumps genes, you are not helpless my friend, get your spandex on and work that booty (spandex not required).

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HOLA4419
1 hour ago, The Spaniard said:

Dave Cullen's latest research and comment.

Good independent journalism or paranoid, delusional conspiracy theory?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSiA2Rm-s9U

I know what you mean. Of course it's not a conspiracy, he is showing the EU's own documents on a common vaccination card and digital ID. Why so many people call out names like "conspiracy nut" when it's right there I don't know.

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HOLA4420
48 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

 

Healthy people will also have genetic susceptibility, which can be activated by becoming unhealthy. Take inadequate sleep for example https://www.pnas.org/content/110/12/E1132.abstract

"We show that one wk of insufficient sleep alters gene expression in human blood cells, reduces the amplitude of circadian rhythms in gene expression, and intensifies the effects of subsequent acute total sleep loss on gene expression."

 

What about blue light from mobiles?

May be not the 5G, but the OLED.

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HOLA4423
3 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

5G is for the nutcases. Any blue light effect will be negligible compared to the staying up until 5am wittering to friends on WhatsApp. 

5G or did you mean ”5G Conspiracies”

?

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HOLA4424

Riots on the Fourth of July?

https://zelo-street.blogspot.com/2020/06/civil-unrest-gathering-storm.html

Quote

Millions of people did as they were asked, sacrificing their freedom to contain the rapid spread of the Coronavirus. While many cowered inside their homes and stayed away from friends and family, those in the Government pleased themselves. While the public faced sanctions for having day trips, Dominic Cummings just sniggered.

That matters. It matters because whatever the Government does now to tell those millions to behave themselves is going to fall on deaf ears. If they don’t fancy behaving themselves, they won’t. The Polecat got away with it. They can do the same.

What’s alleged Prime Minister Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson going to do about it? Ten years of cuts to Police numbers means that if enough pissed off Brits kick off at once, the cops won’t be able to cope. This week’s crowded beaches have shown that. Cops ask folks to move on? Nah, don’t fancy it mate, shove off. What’re you going to do about it?

So now the public know they can get away with breaking the law if enough of them do it. Right ahead of a series of events that will show Bozo and his pals that the genie they have let out of the bottle - through their own ineptitude - is not going back any time soon.

On the 4th of July - a Saturday in high summer - pubs will be able to reopen. Many are not doing; they want to be able to keep themselves and their customers safe. But the Spoons chain will be. A warm day, lots of cheap alcohol sloshing about, early opening, long session, the first for months - what could possibly go wrong?

By mid-afternoon, the cops won’t be able to cope with any more than the odd disturbance. And what if it really kicks off? Maybe the pundits would like to scold the masses. But who will listen to them? Take those in the Mail, now the country’s largest selling paper. Sarah “Vain” Vine, whose husband Michael “Oiky” Gove didn’t bat en eyelid when he fiddled his expenses, and never apologised afterwards? What authority does she have? None.

Richard Littlejohn, perchance? But who wants to listen to a has-been who doesn’t even live in this country? Nigel “Thirsty” Farage? Properties in France and has been trying to get a German passport? The PM, whose Dad has been trying to get French passports for some of the extended family? Any of them plead for calm, they’ll get told to ****** off.

 

 

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HOLA4425
1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

5G or did you mean ”5G Conspiracies”

?

When you read in the news the "conspiracy theorists" say it causes COVID19 the news are deliberately lying to misrepresent. What they say is that it weakens the immune system.

Adverse health effects of 5G mobile networking technology under real-life conditions

Risks to Health and Well-Being From Radio-Frequency Radiation Emitted by Cell Phones and Other Wireless Devices

Edited by Arpeggio
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