Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Peter Hun]

13 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

More than 20m Americans could have contracted Covid-19, experts say

New estimate from CDC indicates many without symptoms have or had the disease, senior administration officials said

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/25/us-coronavirus-cases-count-cdc

 

Around 1% will die, 125k deaths so far indicate that at least 12.5  million have been infected

14 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

And yet... Life goes on.

It should be pretty clear by now that this is considerably less deadly than at first feared. Certainly not deadly enough to grind the economy and normal societal life into dust over.

Life is not going on as normal. These states being attacked with a second or first wave will eventually grind to a halt.

The virus is exactly as deadly as predicted in late January, with the additional high risk of serious long term health issues.

Until the virus goes away, it will not have gone away, as dumb as that sounds.

[Grayphil]

9 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

BREAKING NEWS: 

Swedes rapidly losing trust in Covid-19 strategy, poll finds

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/26/swedes-rapidly-losing-trust-in-covid-19-strategy-poll-finds

 

Sick and tired of the rides death figures. 

There approval rating is still higher than ours, the guardian wrote an article a could of days back saying only 3 in 10 in the UK approve of the UK governamnts response to Covid. 

So using guardian figures, the Swedes are happier, therefore we should switch to the swedish model

 

[Grayphil]

As has been mentioned many times here, much wider spread, and far less deadly than first suggested

 

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-true-us-coronavirus-case-tally-may-be-more-than-80-times-larger-than-reported/?fbclid=IwAR1FmmO2sQZ60SHs7Bkcr77gJKFaseViZJWRrva0cfM9kS6txJdGZGuKzuw

[pig]

45 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

There approval rating is still higher than ours, the guardian wrote an article a could of days back saying only 3 in 10 in the UK approve of the UK governamnts response to Covid. 

So using guardian figures, the Swedes are happier, therefore we should switch to the swedish model

 

Might be better to try to work out why approval ratings in Sweden and the UK have plummeted while approval ratings in New Zealand and Germany have rocketed.

[Kosmin]

12 hours ago, MarkG said:

It seems unlikely for a virus, because all a virus does is reproduce by infecting your cells. So if it's virulent enough that its reproduction will kill you, I suspect it's rapidly going to prevent you from doing anything that will spread it; you'll quickly be lying on your back dying somewhere.

But then one person has the virus and he dies before he spreads it and the virus is eradicated.  

[Kosmin]

1 hour ago, burk said:

Go for it, don't say i didn't warn you though

My university days are behind me, so it's hypothetical for me. Are you also arguing hypothetically or are you considering going to university? Would you pay £10,000 per year to go to university from a bedroom in your parent's house?

[ticket2ride]

8 minutes ago, pig said:

Might be better to try to work out why approval ratings in Sweden and the UK have plummeted while approval ratings in New Zealand and Germany have rocketed.

Is the answer "more dead people/less dead people"?

[Kosmin]

12 hours ago, MarkG said:

The lockdowns have hardest hit the Democrat-run states, as have the riots. I'm seeing a lot of people talking about how pissed-off they are and how their Democrat state may go Republican this year.

But it really depends on how many fraudulent votes the Democrats can create. They've been pushing mail-in voting laws all over to ensure they can print as many votes as they need.

Is there any reason why one side can cheat in elections, but not the other?

In Britain postal votes massively benefit the Conservatives by making it easier for elderly people to vote. Why don't Labour use it to cheat?

In America, Republicans fear that postal votes will be used by Democrats to cheat. Why don't they fear that in the absence of postal voting, their elderly voter won't vote, especially due to health fears during a pandemic? 

[Social Justice League]

I think we will see a big second wave and another lockdown at some point and that will finish off the economy completely. 

Unless saving the NHS was for this time only.

[Grayphil]

28 minutes ago, pig said:

Might be better to try to work out why approval ratings in Sweden and the UK have plummeted while approval ratings in New Zealand and Germany have rocketed.

Essentially I should of course agree with you, but there are nearly 1 million germans under new lockdown who seem pretty furious right now (another guardian headline!) 

New Zealand as we know has it coming around again, its had new infections everyday since that couple arrived from the UK. 

I believe that the virus must pass through populations, or they will always have the spectre of relock down. 

Based on recent studies, the virus has passed through more of the population than we ever imagined, the same will be true with Sweden. 

 

[pig]

3 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

Essentially I should of course agree with you, but there are nearly 1 million germans under new lockdown who seem pretty furious right now (another guardian headline!) 

New Zealand as we know has it coming around again, its had new infections everyday since that couple arrived from the UK. 

I believe that the virus must pass through populations, or they will always have the spectre of relock down. 

Based on recent studies, the virus has passed through more of the population than we ever imagined, the same will be true with Sweden. 

 

It sounds a bit like you don't know what you are talking about -  in a very odd way

What point were you trying to make with your '1 million Germans' ?

 

[highcontrast]

Looks like Proffessor Cummings decided which vaccines got £10's of millions of tax payer funding whilst ignoring other solutions.

 

https://www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-politics-whitehall-2020-6-mystery-over-who-approved-126m-vaccine-investment/

Government refuses to say who decided which UK coronavirus projects received millions in public money

The government has refused to clarify how it decided to spend more than £126 million on two experimental vaccine projects at Oxford and Imperial while not funding other vaccine projects at Bristol and Nottingham.

This money dwarfs the £48.6 million that national funding agency, UK Research and Innovation has so far invested into more than 114 research projects responding to the Covid-19 pandemic through its two major calls.

But funding for the university-led projects at Oxford and Imperial did not go through the usual UKRI granting mechanisms and all the departments or bodies involved in Covid-19 response have declined to answer questions about what peer review—if any—was involved in the decisions. Other vaccine efforts, including one at a spinout from University of Bristol, and another one at University of Nottingham have had no government funding for their efforts.

Imperial College London and University of Oxford did not reply to a request for comment on the matter. But Robin Shattock, a professor at Imperial who leads its vaccine project, told The Times in April that “someone from Whitehall got in touch” and then health secretary Matt Hancock told him over the phone he “had the budget on his table and asked, ‘Should I sign this?’”

The mystery over exactly who approved the award of such large sums has been deepened by Dominic Cummings, the Prime Minister’s chief aide, using vaccine funding as one of the reasons he needed to travel from Durham back to London, a journey that potentially broke lockdown rules."

[Grayphil]

4 minutes ago, pig said:

It sounds a bit like you don't know what you are talking about -  in a very odd way

What point were you trying to make with your '1 million Germans' ?

 

Fair enough! I'm talking aboit the Germans who have been locked down again following the latest outbreak. 

Also I see Australia is panic buying again, seems a bit of a flair up there, after having no visitors, seems the winter effect really is a bit thing after all. 

My point could also be construed as the poster countries that you just used, as shining examples, are both having flare ups, maybe they just delayed the inevitable.

[Grayphil]

Seems that Australia, with no visitors is having another outbreak. 

Wintertime in Melbourne, who could have predicted something like this happening? 

 

https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/26/global-report-rationing-returns-to-australia-as-panic-buying-spreads?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15931676155590&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2020%2Fjun%2F26%2Fglobal-report-rationing-returns-to-australia-as-panic-buying-spreads

[ticket2ride]

8 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

Seems that Australia, with no visitors is having another outbreak. 

Wintertime in Melbourne, who could have predicted something like this happening? 

 

https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/26/global-report-rationing-returns-to-australia-as-panic-buying-spreads?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15931676155590&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2020%2Fjun%2F26%2Fglobal-report-rationing-returns-to-australia-as-panic-buying-spreads

Is it thousands a day, like England? Or a couple of dozen?

Full beaches as a direct result of The Johnson backing Cummings lockdown breaking.

No one wearing masks on public transport.

The world's most useless track and trace system. 

Led by donkeys.

[Errol]

2 hours ago, Grayphil said:

As has been mentioned many times here, much wider spread, and far less deadly than first suggested

It isn't the death that's the problem or worry for most. The issue is that the virus is now confirmed to cause brain damage, lung impairment and attack nearly all the other organs in the body causing unknown levels of damage which is probably permanent. And this is in mild cases (i.e. ill at home for 2 weeks as opposed to in hospital).

'Surviving' the virus isn't the issue. The issue is how do they define 'survival'. I define it as complete, 100% recovery - not a recovery with permanent 10% impairment to lungs or other organs and possible changes or damage to the brain.

Edited June 26, 2020 by Errol

[Grayphil]

1 hour ago, ticket2ride said:

Is it thousands a day, like England? Or a couple of dozen?

Full beaches as a direct result of The Johnson backing Cummings lockdown breaking.

No one wearing masks on public transport.

The world's most useless track and trace system. 

Led by donkeys.

I agree with all of this, but it's obvious we are relaxing too much.. If the goal was eradication, which it clearly isn't. 

 

[Grayphil]

50 minutes ago, Errol said:

It isn't the death that's the problem or worry for most. The issue is that the virus is now confirmed to cause brain damage, lung impairment and attack nearly all the other organs in the body causing unknown levels of damage which is probably permanent. And this is in mild cases (i.e. ill at home for 2 weeks as opposed to in hospital).

'Surviving' the virus isn't the issue. The issue is how do they define 'survival'. I define it as complete, 100% recovery - not a recovery with permanent 10% impairment to lungs or other organs and possible changes or damage to the brain.

Yes the exact numbers are not known for these, I'm not saying it doesn't cause these conditions. I don't think it's in huge numbers either. 

There is a real thing now called coronaphopia. It's an irrational fear, its consumed vast swathes of the population. 

Some statistician the other day, known for skewing his statistics, to suit his need, normally fear mongering, admitted that for anyone under 59, there is much more dangerbof dying in a regular run of the mill accident than covid. 

I would imagine the risk of complications, is also very low

 

[Kosmin]

16 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

Some statistician the other day, known for skewing his statistics, to suit his need, normally fear mongering, admitted that for anyone under 59, there is much more danger of dying in a regular run of the mill accident than covid. 

The probability varies enormously by age. A 58 year old will have a much greater risk than a 38 year old or 28 year old. To lump together everyone under 59 is moronic. I'm not sure anyone who makes this basic error is likely to be a reliable authority.

[Peter Hun]

3 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

To lump together everyone under 59 is moronic

 

Working age, i.e. productive. About 5000 dead so far. Some seem happy to dismiss 50K+ dead if the are elderly, but 5k were not.

ONS figures: two-thirds of coronavirus deaths in working-age population March-May were men

Here are some headline figures from new ONS figures that have gone up this morning looking into the number of deaths in the working age population in England and Wales.

Men make up two thirds of the deaths in this group, with men in elementary occupations worst hit.

Among specific occupations, security guards were the most likely to die. Other occupations with higher death rates include taxi drivers and chauffeurs; bus and coach drivers; chefs; and sales and retail assistants.

Among women, four specific occupations had raised rates of death involving Covid-19, including sales and retail assistants.

Care workers – both men and women – had an increased death rate. And of the 17 specific occupations among men in England and Wales with higher death rates, 11 have statistically significantly higher proportions of workers from black and Asian ethnic backgrounds.

Here’s the main points:

• A total of 4,761 deaths involving the coronavirus in the working age population (those aged 20 to 64 years) of England and Wales were registered between 9 March and 25 May 2020.
• Nearly two-thirds of these deaths were among men (3,122 deaths), with the age-standardised mortality rate of death involving Covid-19 being statistically higher in men, at 19.1 deaths per 100,000 men aged 20 to 64 years, compared with 9.7 deaths per 100,000 women (1,639 deaths).
• Compared with the rate among people of the same sex and age in England and Wales, men working in elementary occupations had the highest rate of death involving Covid-19, with 39.7 deaths per 100,000 men (421 deaths); of the specific elementary occupations, men working as security guards had the highest rate, with 74.0 deaths per 100,000 (104 deaths).
• Men and women working in social care, a group including care workers and home carers, both had significantly raised rates of death involving Covid-19, with rates of 50.1 deaths per 100,000 men (97 deaths) and 19.1 deaths per 100,000 women (171 deaths).
• Among health care professions as a whole, including those with jobs such as doctors and nurses, only men had higher rates of death involving Covid-19 (30.4 deaths per 100,000 men or 130 deaths) when compared with the rate among those whose death involved Covid-19 of the same age and sex in the general population; of the specific health care professions, nurses had elevated rates among both sexes (50.4 deaths per 100,000 men or 31 deaths; 15.3 deaths per 100,000 women or 70 deaths).
• Among women, four specific occupations had raised rates of death involving Covid-19, including sales and retail assistants (15.7 deaths per 100,000 women, or 64 deaths).
• Because of the higher number of deaths among men, 17 specific occupations were found to have raised rates of death involving Covid-19, some of which included: taxi drivers and chauffeurs (65.3 deaths per 100,000; 134 deaths); bus and coach drivers (44.2 deaths per 100,000; 53 deaths); chefs (56.8 deaths per 100,000; 49 deaths); and sales and retail assistants (34.2 deaths per 100,000; 43 deaths).
• Of the 17 specific occupations among men in England and Wales found to have higher rates of death involving Covid-19, data from the annual population survey (APS) show that 11 of these have statistically significantly higher proportions of workers from black and Asian ethnic backgrounds; for women, APS data show that two of the four specific occupations with elevated rates have statistically significantly higher proportions of workers from black and Asian ethnic backgrounds.
• This analysis does not prove conclusively that the observed rates of death involving Covid-19 are necessarily caused by differences in occupational exposure; we adjusted for age, but not for other factors such as ethnic group and place of residence.

[Timm]

6 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

 

Working age, i.e. productive. About 5000 dead so far. Some seem happy to dismiss 50K+ dead if the are elderly, but 5k were not.

ONS figures: two-thirds of coronavirus deaths in working-age population March-May were men

Here are some headline figures from new ONS figures that have gone up this morning looking into the number of deaths in the working age population in England and Wales.

Men make up two thirds of the deaths in this group, with men in elementary occupations worst hit.

Among specific occupations, security guards were the most likely to die. Other occupations with higher death rates include taxi drivers and chauffeurs; bus and coach drivers; chefs; and sales and retail assistants.

Among women, four specific occupations had raised rates of death involving Covid-19, including sales and retail assistants.

Care workers – both men and women – had an increased death rate. And of the 17 specific occupations among men in England and Wales with higher death rates, 11 have statistically significantly higher proportions of workers from black and Asian ethnic backgrounds.

Here’s the main points:

• A total of 4,761 deaths involving the coronavirus in the working age population (those aged 20 to 64 years) of England and Wales were registered between 9 March and 25 May 2020.
• Nearly two-thirds of these deaths were among men (3,122 deaths), with the age-standardised mortality rate of death involving Covid-19 being statistically higher in men, at 19.1 deaths per 100,000 men aged 20 to 64 years, compared with 9.7 deaths per 100,000 women (1,639 deaths).
• Compared with the rate among people of the same sex and age in England and Wales, men working in elementary occupations had the highest rate of death involving Covid-19, with 39.7 deaths per 100,000 men (421 deaths); of the specific elementary occupations, men working as security guards had the highest rate, with 74.0 deaths per 100,000 (104 deaths).
• Men and women working in social care, a group including care workers and home carers, both had significantly raised rates of death involving Covid-19, with rates of 50.1 deaths per 100,000 men (97 deaths) and 19.1 deaths per 100,000 women (171 deaths).
• Among health care professions as a whole, including those with jobs such as doctors and nurses, only men had higher rates of death involving Covid-19 (30.4 deaths per 100,000 men or 130 deaths) when compared with the rate among those whose death involved Covid-19 of the same age and sex in the general population; of the specific health care professions, nurses had elevated rates among both sexes (50.4 deaths per 100,000 men or 31 deaths; 15.3 deaths per 100,000 women or 70 deaths).
• Among women, four specific occupations had raised rates of death involving Covid-19, including sales and retail assistants (15.7 deaths per 100,000 women, or 64 deaths).
• Because of the higher number of deaths among men, 17 specific occupations were found to have raised rates of death involving Covid-19, some of which included: taxi drivers and chauffeurs (65.3 deaths per 100,000; 134 deaths); bus and coach drivers (44.2 deaths per 100,000; 53 deaths); chefs (56.8 deaths per 100,000; 49 deaths); and sales and retail assistants (34.2 deaths per 100,000; 43 deaths).
• Of the 17 specific occupations among men in England and Wales found to have higher rates of death involving Covid-19, data from the annual population survey (APS) show that 11 of these have statistically significantly higher proportions of workers from black and Asian ethnic backgrounds; for women, APS data show that two of the four specific occupations with elevated rates have statistically significantly higher proportions of workers from black and Asian ethnic backgrounds.
• This analysis does not prove conclusively that the observed rates of death involving Covid-19 are necessarily caused by differences in occupational exposure; we adjusted for age, but not for other factors such as ethnic group and place of residence.

Hmm, so are men more likely to die because they are men, or because they are more likely to be taxi drivers etc?

The same question could be asked with "men" replaced by some other social group.

 

[ticket2ride]

The Johnson had to be mr popular and get the drunks back in the covid cathedrals. Feel sorry for anyone working in a&e.

Police chiefs warn pubs will be 'apocalyptic' on July 4

[pig]

2 hours ago, Grayphil said:

Fair enough! I'm talking aboit the Germans who have been locked down again following the latest outbreak. 

Also I see Australia is panic buying again, seems a bit of a flair up there, after having no visitors, seems the winter effect really is a bit thing after all. 

My point could also be construed as the poster countries that you just used, as shining examples, are both having flare ups, maybe they just delayed the inevitable.

You think Germany and New Zealand have done badly ?

[winkie]

What is the greatest risk?

A day spent on Bournemouth or Brighton beach.

An hour travel on the train, bus or underground. or

A two hour trip on a plane........to a low risk destination.

[Grayphil]

47 minutes ago, pig said:

You think Germany and New Zealand have done badly ?

I believe they may have delayed the pain of the Covid deaths for a while, but have experienced nearly the same level or economic pain as we have. 

However. We have got over the worst of ours now, and maybe they still have it all to come.