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House Price Crash Forum


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About nightowl

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  1. It is a curious number, but the whole unknown thing about Corona is how it spreads, who gets it and who even then has symptoms. It's curious that more people didn't get infected on diamond Princess or the US warship and in the former case why didn't more contract it especially given its demographics and in the latters case especially given how cramped warships and their crews live. It's also curious how it's suspected it's been in general circulation earlier but didn't produce many fatalities until producing a short period of delayed exponential growth which after an early inflexion point the rate of change is reducing before the peak. It's curious that countries that locked down hard and early suddenly find all they have done is delay the inevitable. Just because we don't fully understand the reason doesn't mean it a factor for us to consider on how to handle it.
  2. Apologies I am posting a link to our favorite gold standard news organisation (ahem 🙄) but apparently only 22% of those testing positive for covid are symptomatic on the day (though this does rise after the event). A sub-text of the article is look how bad all the secret asymptomatic spreaders are, but it does pose the question of how more common has this virus is now and how much more common must it have to had been a few months ago? Superficially it appears bad but a) it means the mortality rate is magnitudes lower than claimed, b) the number of avenues for the virus to find new victims is far less too. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53320155
  3. What UK is this? 🙄🙄🙄 All the supermarkets and chain retailers in the UK I live in have been very good with putting up screens, marking floors with 2m's, counting and limiting people in and out and one way systems etc and customers generally have got on with it fine. They managed this without the government help or any enforcement, fuss or fanfare.
  4. It seems with flu it takes its toll over several months often November to March rather than covid which took its toll mostly in April which is new for us to understand. All lockdown achieved is suppressing April's numbers and pushing them into May...ie delaying the inevitable. There's other things about covid we didn't expect but there are puzzles and clues for those of us with a enquiring mind.
  5. Using the (relatively) reliable death toll as a proxy measure for infections, the infection spread is also a tiny fraction of its peak in March. The vast majority of spread happened prior to peak infections in early/mid march, way before lockdown so our fate was decided then. Remember lockdown wasnt to stop it but flatten the curve. So we have (almost) done it! The deathrate displays an exponential decay curve so will have low numbers for a few months to come with some noise (ups and downs).
  6. Don't forget people starting ignoring the guidelines on visiting each other etc long before the were officially relaxed and the trend was still the same.
  7. Spikes and second waves are a possibility but probability is a different thing and even then are they significant in the bigger picture. Remember VE day celebrations? Reopening of non essential shops? People excersisng in parks? BLM protests? Apparently they would all result in an early second wave of doom (although with BLM it depended on your politics 😒) but the trend is relentlessly downward still! The stats arent perfect but they give a better insight into covids behaviour than people's emotional reaction to it all. Fascinated subject that is in itself.
  8. Being fed a media diet of doom so do as yet told hasn't helped. A count of 16 is 1.5% of peak covid deathtoll yet anyone would think it's still 70% or something. It's about 1% of the normal deaths this country has per day on a crude average. It is probably artificially low today as they undercount weekends and compensate in the week but even so when put in perspective it confuses some people completely. I don't mean just here, but tell someone fewer people died in June 2020 than usual and shows them the ONS graph or the discrete BBC article about it and you can see the confusion within them! Far more people psychologically injured by this than the virus ever reached.
  9. The National Health Service was converted into the Covid Health Service and a lot of other conditions either didn't get handled or simply people were scared off. No doubt it was all good intentions back in March but these excess deaths with hindsight could have been avoided especially when it was apparent the NHS/CHS had unused capacity. I'm sure there will be endless dragged out inquiries about how we can 'learn the lessons' coming up. Where we are now is an economic problem and not a medical one as the latter is nearly over although many are psychologically trapped in it.
  10. Meddling with house taxation or how and who pays into the council coffers is fraught with political danger as Mrs T found out and will end up being a tax rise for most people not because their house has risen but the implementers will see it that way. It's like re assessing council tax bands is a gateway to tax increases and that has been avoided in 30 years! Of course in reality all houses should end up in the same band as 1991 anyway so pointless really but the opportunity for more stealth tax will been seen with suspicion. The other lever the gov has other than tax is law making and everyone immediately thinks they should use tax to reform the economy but forgets changing legislation to make the free market run free again....which it hasn't been for a while now.
  11. The subject of the Normans and land ownership is very emotive but has little direct impact of where we are right now with a (just about) functioning economy put on ice for 3 months and my guess is small and micro businesses are the way forward as they are inherently more inventive and dynamic. I see we are in a 1945-lite situation rather than 2008 too.
  12. To be seen to be doing something? If very few houses transact now from his point of view it might as well be suspended so no great loss.
  13. The idea of a landtax is popular on here (despite council tax mostly filling that purpose). The problem of taxing houses is 99% of home owners arent the landed gentry types and without secure jobs won't be able to pay it anyway so it makes no economic sense before the political outcome is assessed.
  14. I wonder how much often now the phrase "the cure was worse than the disease" will now get used now the dust is settling? Stamp duty would be reduced anyway if prices fall at least in amounts people pay. The difference with Corbyn would have been he would have spent/printed all this cash without a once in 50/100 year event to force it.
  15. Looks like the Saturday dubbed "They are already calling it Super Saturday" has passed without any drama reported. The death rate reported today was 22 ( a 1/50th of the peak) so no drama being reported there. Very few posts here. What could this mean.....?
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