Nationwide Oct -0.9%

[FallingAwake]

5 hours ago, Clarky Cat said:

Daily Express:

Homeowners' DESPAIR as house prices fall by £900 PER WEEK

Non seasonally adjusted fall of nearly £4000. Annualised (NSA) would be -16% YoY. Anyway, shouldn't read too much into MoM figures as they're so volatile. The trend is clearly down looking at the quarterly figures so I await the next few months. 

 

Surely it just balances the JOY they (Daily Express readers) felt at pricing out the younger generation by £900 per week?

[Data Dave]

6 hours ago, hotblack42 said:

boomer trying to give offspring cash & inadvertently giving it to another boomer😆

B2B!! 😆

[Timm]

1 hour ago, henry the king said:

I think 15-20% nominal and about 35% in real terms is my base case given what has happened so far.

30% nominal could happen though. We could easily see -15% YoY within 4-5 months.

Very similar to me. I think:

20% nominal fall over the next 12 months.

35% in real terms from peak to 12 months from today.

[Timm]

Has anybody pointed out that the fall today takes us back to spring prices?

Apr-22 £267,620

May-22 £269,914 

 

Oct-22 £268,282

[Huggy]

7 minutes ago, Timm said:

Has anybody pointed out that the fall today takes us back to spring prices?

Apr-22 £267,620

May-22 £269,914 

 

Oct-22 £268,282

That's one month of results to wind back 5 months of HPI. Just think how many years of insanity will be eliminated by 2023

[henry the king]

52 minutes ago, Timm said:

Has anybody pointed out that the fall today takes us back to spring prices?

Apr-22 £267,620

May-22 £269,914 

 

Oct-22 £268,282

And if we see similar falls over the next 2 months then we will be down to February levels. 

We will be negative YoY by the February release of the January data at the very latest. Might get there in the December data released at the start of January though.

Won't take long. 

Edited November 1, 2022 by henry the king

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

Must be terrifying if you are out there in a fragile chain of scatty buyers/sellers, hanging on the phone, waiting for a confirmed completion date...

Or just starting the journey, being a new instruction and agent measuring up. Looking to the near future, chasing the market down, psychologically preparing yourself to slash the asking price heavily into a winter of dark nights.

[msi]

20 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

Must be terrifying if you are out there in a fragile chain of scatty buyers/sellers, hanging on the phone, waiting for a confirmed completion date...

Or just starting the journey, being a new instruction and agent measuring up. Looking to the near future, chasing the market down, psychologically preparing yourself to slash the asking price heavily into a winter of dark nights.

Denial is powerful....until it isn't.  

[Twenty Something]

1 hour ago, henry the king said:

And if we see similar falls over the next 2 months then we will be down to February levels. 

We will be negative YoY by the February release of the January data at the very latest. Might get there in the December data released at the start of January though.

Won't take long. 

You must be limbering up to jump in then given you just wanted a 5% drop before you brought something? 

[slawek]

4 hours ago, scottbeard said:

It's basically just based on the fact that a 25 year mortgage payment at 5.5% pa mortgage rates buys a house 30% cheaper than the same payment at 2.0% pa mortgage rates.

That is 30% real drop (relative to wages), not nominal. 

 

[scottbeard]

25 minutes ago, slawek said:

That is 30% real drop (relative to wages), not nominal.

But I'm expecting a nominal 30% drop to follow once you combine the above maths with all the other downward pressures.

Shall we come back in 2 years and see?  What's your nominal fall prediction?

[nuts]

8% (+ or - 5%) in the next 2 years

[Orb]

5 minutes ago, nuts said:

8% (+ or - 5%) in the next 2 years

lol there's some properites I'm currently looking at where that much is coming off the asking price in one day! When they eventually do sell, it'll probably be for 15% less than they would have last year. 

[nuts]

Just now, Orb said:

lol there's some properites I'm currently looking at where that much is coming off the asking price in one day! When they eventually do sell, it'll probably be for 15% less than they would have last year. 

yes, sure.    but "some" is not how it works !    we are talking about averages ... no?

[slawek]

12 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

But I'm expecting a nominal 30% drop to follow once you combine the above maths with all the other downward pressures.

Shall we come back in 2 years and see?  What's your nominal fall prediction?

I am expecting a real drop around 50%. Nominal is harder to predict as it depends on how quickly HPs will drop and how high  inflation will be. 30% inflation over 3 years gives 20% nominal. 

[danlee74]

3 hours ago, Timm said:

Has anybody pointed out that the fall today takes us back to spring prices?

Apr-22 £267,620

May-22 £269,914 

 

Oct-22 £268,282

Yeh, I had noticed that ... ouch, prices have fallen across the past 5 months.  Additionally, £5.5k off in the past two months.  Looking back further into the Nationwide dataset (Nationwide HPI News - Data & Resources (nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk)) it shows that in the 2007-09 GFC prices fell from a high of £186k in Oct-07 to a low of £148k in Feb-09 a nominal fall of £38k or 20%+ in 17 months.  Hopefully the start of things to come, and hopefully this time things will be allowed to correct properly without interest rate slashing or money printing as was done at the end of the noughties.

[pandabear]

When i fixed mortgage again last December, the margin between the base rate and what i pay was 1.4%.  Currently the margin is around 3.5%. Obviously panic set in after the budget.

Now i know I am told that mortgages are paid for through open market loans, but i very much doubt that, they match too closely to gilt yields.  My thought is that the banks simply act as administrators for the Bank of England and release the money for them whilst charging a set rate for the period offered.  Typically around 1.5% if you have a fair amount of LTV.

So why would the Bank of England not just put conditions on their lending based on risk just a banks do?  Only agreeing to lend the money if the margin is not too high?  

Mortgage rates reduced in one easy step and any crash minimised.

[mynamehere]

Mortgage margin is between swap rate not base rate, which is about 4.5, and still roughly in your range of 1.5 - 2%

[fellow]

2 hours ago, msi said:

Denial is powerful....until it isn't.  

Indeed. Denial will be replaced by FEAR - the most powerful of all emotions.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

47 minutes ago, pandabear said:

When i fixed mortgage again last December, the margin between the base rate and what i pay was 1.4%.  Currently the margin is around 3.5%. Obviously panic set in after the budget.

Now i know I am told that mortgages are paid for through open market loans, but i very much doubt that, they match too closely to gilt yields.  My thought is that the banks simply act as administrators for the Bank of England and release the money for them whilst charging a set rate for the period offered.  Typically around 1.5% if you have a fair amount of LTV.

So why would the Bank of England not just put conditions on their lending based on risk just a banks do?  Only agreeing to lend the money if the margin is not too high?  

Mortgage rates reduced in one easy step and any crash minimised.

Then the currency collapses 

 

Inflation is 12%, no one is going to lend to the uk ever again if they do that 

[fellow]

5 hours ago, henry the king said:

I think 15-20% nominal and about 35% in real terms is my base case given what has happened so far.

30% nominal could happen though. We could easily see -15% YoY within 4-5 months.

It's amazing how little ambition people have on this site these days.

People don't seem to realise the impact a 20%+ house price fall would have on the UK economy which, in itself could cause prices to fall a further 20% in a self sustaining negative feedback loop. Then fear itself could drag prices down another 20%.

 

[pandabear]

13 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Then the currency collapses 

 

Inflation is 12%, no one is going to lend to the uk ever again if they do that 

As opposed to what is currently happening to most currencies globally? I am still not sure anyone has been lending anyone anything recently, it’s just printy printy.

[scottbeard]

3 hours ago, pandabear said:

When i fixed mortgage again last December, the margin between the base rate and what i pay was 1.4%.  Currently the margin is around 3.5%. Obviously panic set in after the budget.

Now i know I am told that mortgages are paid for through open market loans, but i very much doubt that, they match too closely to gilt yields.  My thought is that the banks simply act as administrators for the Bank of England and release the money for them whilst charging a set rate for the period offered.  Typically around 1.5% if you have a fair amount of LTV.

So why would the Bank of England not just put conditions on their lending based on risk just a banks do?  Only agreeing to lend the money if the margin is not too high?  

Mortgage rates reduced in one easy step and any crash minimised.

A better way to think of fixed rates is as a margin over the AVERAGE base rate expected over the fix period, bot the current rate.

So right now the gap looks huge but as interest rate rises you should see fixed rate mortgage rates unchanged and that gap closes.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

15 hours ago, anonguest said:

Every little helps.

Ah now I see where your bitterness comes from. Thank you for confirming. 🤣🤣🤣🤣

[LetsBuild]

12 hours ago, fellow said:

It's amazing how little ambition people have on this site these days.

People don't seem to realise the impact a 20%+ house price fall would have on the UK economy which, in itself could cause prices to fall a further 20% in a self sustaining negative feedback loop. Then fear itself could drag prices down another 20%.

 

I do, I’m still going for 50% over 5 years as it stands (no props).