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henry the king

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Everything posted by henry the king

  1. Agree. House prices will fall in real terms - probably by a lot. Probably starting in the middle of the year. It might not fall in nominal terms though.
  2. Once the fed tighten then the BoE have no choice. Honestly, 0.75% is the projection at the end of the year. But in reality I think it will be higher. 1.25% is my guess. I think the fed are going to tighten every month until inflation stops going up loads. That is what Goldman think too. If they keep tightening then the BoE have no choice.
  3. Zero direct impact. But the inflation it would cause would increase the cost of living rises we will see anyway. So it would probably lead to higher IR rises, but not significantly. So it might have a minor knock -on effect.
  4. Depends on inflation. If inflation becomes an issue then a collapse in markets is irrelevant and they will act to stop inflation regardless. Inflation is just too dangerous if the cat gets out the bag.
  5. Unless President "Inflation Biden" does another inflation act with some stupid helicopter money and encouraging the fed to print then its got a long long long way to go yet. If President Inflation does that then his party will be wiped out in elections in the next few years, so that won't happen
  6. Crazy that people didn't sell when the fed was pumping in cash and President inflation was sending everyone stimulus cheques to put into assets which caused a huge bubble. The ponzi scheme is unwinding now, I predict BTC has a lot further to fall unless the Fed changes course. Which they won't. Also inflation means people have less money available to pump in.
  7. This means rates are going up again in February as Mann isn't one of the Hawks. So when the 5th/6th most hawkish member is calling for IR raises then it means probably 6 at least will vote for a rise. I think the projections of 0.75% at the end of the year are unsustainable and the BoE will have to go much faster.
  8. I'd expect 2 years of flat house prices starting this summer. And that will mean real terms declines of around 10-15%
  9. They have no choice in February imo. This data forced their hand and the negative market reactions to not raising rates in November (and with the Fed) has spooked them. They will do as little as they can to maintain credibility, but it does mean February they will need to go up. If inflation continues to be so broad then I would then expect another rate rise the next month. Honestly seems like taking a month off from raising rates right now is going to be damaging. If things calm down on the inflation front they will stop raising rates though. All they need is a glimmer of hope that inflation isn't going crazy. every month inflation hits or surpassing expectations they will raise rates imo
  10. Rates are going up faster than projected currently, it is obvious inflation will persist and seems to be becoming engrained. I would guess they do a 0.25% rise most months this year. My guess is we are at least at 1% by the summer and 1.5% at year end. The combination of inflation AND rate rises at the same time is bad news for HPI. So I would expect house price falls in the later half of this year.
  11. Public opinion have flipped now. I would give it another 2 months and we will be back to 2019 patterns of behaviour. Even the hardcore careful people will gradually come out of their shell over 2022.
  12. There will be a flood of properties soon I agree. Then it will be possible to secure good deals even if the average price doesn't decline. The pandemic narrative is changing now, and it is ending with the new variant which is basically just a cold. By March/April they will stop testing for it and reporting daily figures and it will slide out of the public perception and we will be back to 100% normality.
  13. Because people are still scared of covid and don't want random people in their homes. That is it really. They also don't want to downsize until covid is over and they know they won't need the space.
  14. This is the main reason house prices are going up. There is just no supply so if you want to buy then you need to pay what they want.
  15. It takes a whole other level to go into politics. Someone at his level would get obliterated. The media and opposition would run circles round him.
  16. Can we also point out that all these data are pointless now. Omicron has lower level of mortality than flu, because it causes mostly no symptoms at all. 4.3 million infected. 10k in hospital. If flu infected 4.3 million it would put over 10k in hospital at any one time. So its less dangerous than all the studies show because none of them take randomly surveyed data for number of infections.
  17. 4.3 million infected. 10k in hospital BECAUSE OF covid. Yeh it is a cold now.
  18. 3rd dosing everyone was political. They wanted to avoid restrictions and the economic and political costs. If you are under 30 and took the 3rd dose then you are stupid imo. I personally think they should have offered 3rd doses to 35+ people. That is an age where you stop being "young" imo. And are at risk from covid statistically (somewhat). We absolutely should stop the vaccine programme now, and just give advice to people to only take it IF they are over 35 or have underlying conditions. As for 4th doses. They need to not be considered until October/November and they need to target the new variants and should only be given to 50/60+ like Flu
  19. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-11/repeat-booster-shots-risk-overloading-immune-system-ema-says We can't keep boosting. Must say I am glad to see them say this. The drug companies are trying to force boosters onto people. I personally see the third dose (which I had) as the final dose of the initial course of vaccine. I think a 4th dose would be a booster and I would not have one
  20. The doctor telling the health secretary how stupid the vaccine-extremist rules are. Awesome. Vaccines don't stop transmission after a few months. And the rule doesn't take account of infection or Omicron
  21. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/7january2022 In the week ending December 31st there was 3.7 million with covid (tested over the week so average date of test is the 28th or so). And....780 on ventialation 10 days+ later. Conclusive proof this is mild....not just a little bit mild...but it is just a cold. As me and others said all along. Yet the people who can't think for themselves all got worried over a cold because they just get manipulated by twitter talking heads and the media.
  22. The WHO is a joke who are trying to cling to relevancy. These are the people who said no person to person transmission. They are a joke and should be ignored.
  23. That what I am saying. The ONS is randomly sampled. But the "studies" from these "scientists" that show omicron is only 70% less deadly are NOT doing what is called cohort studies, where they follow people through time and test them as a matter of course. Instead they are just looking at confirmed cases. So a confirmed Omicron case is 70% less deadly than a confirmed Delta case. But that doesn't tell the whole story because there are WAY WAY WAY more unconfirmed Omicron cases than unconfirmed Delta cases. This is only shown up in the random sampling by the ONS.
  24. Exactly. So there are now way more asymptomatic cases, which they ignore when looking at how deadly it is in comparison with Delta. Most asymptomatic people never know they have it.
  25. The ONS 3.7 million figure is from December 28th, already well over a week ago. And that is prevalence which lags incidence (new cases) already. So the lag has happened. All the data they analyse is horseshit because they are only analysing symptomatic cases for their "Omicron is 70% less deadly" stats. In reality it will be way more because Omicron also just causes no symptoms at all in loads of people (compared to Delta). It is all a sham. 3.7 million infected and 800 on ventilation. Those are the facts.
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