danlee74

Loved Spitting Image! They would seriously have a field day if brought back.

I am local to BCP too. Reading the article and the reader comments and my own experiences the problems here are twofold. One, it seems that properties are bought by London types at prices far beyond what any local could afford which reduces available stock for purchase and increases prices for those that are available to buy, as well as forcing more and more into rentals which are often poorly maintained. Two, airbnb is a cancer to the property market and the hospitality industry, further reducing occupation levels of current stock. I have said many times before, there is no shortage of property in this country but there is a misallocation of the current property resource with rich people using their wealth to hoard houses to inflate their values even further. If only a political party would grasp the nettle and get housing back to what it used to be which is simple and affordable shelter, not for use as an investment or a cash machine for equity release. What a sick housing system politicians of many decades have allowed to happen.

I hope so. Fecking BTL leeches, a cancer on society. Hopefully their mass selling off of what should be FTB stock will trigger the return of sensible shelter prices for all. Hope all is all I have. Sadly, reality* keeps kicking me in the balls. * For 'reality' read successive governments who, I can only assume in hock with the puppet master banksters, keep designing policies to inflate, inflate and inflate some more property prices.

*mic drop*

Another one who needs to meet my family and friends.

I guess there is a reason why this type of information is not readily available ... and I guess we all know why.

As a side note, the calculations do tie in relatively well with Too little too late__FINAL - June 2020_0.pdf (arcouk.org) "Assuming one dwelling per household, this produces an average occupancy of 2.36 persons per dwelling. The Bedroom Index is based on the number of bedrooms in dwellings occupied by people according to their age, rather than the size of household they live in."

As stated above, I can only work with the official figures that I could find. However, even if the figures were understated by a few million it wouldn't make that much difference. If we assume a population of 70 mn then that would only give an increase to 2.57 persons per dwelling (whatever a dwelling is as mentioned above!) and an increase in population size of x1.19, certainly not enough to make much of a dent in the difference to x2.59 in house price between 2017 compared to 2000. I would guess (again, nothing scientific) that new builds are smaller, but they would still be a dwelling.

It wasn't supposed to be highly scientific, just an observation ... house numbers increased at the same rate as population increased, yet prices rose x2.5+ ... this shows to my mind that population is a smaller factor in price increases that (a) credit availability [light touch regulation & QE & ...], (b) multiple house ownership, (c) increases in the PRS and the "you just can't lose out in bricks and mortar" brigade and (d) foreign ownership (China / Russia / ME) and buy to leave asset stores. If I had the time, the information was available, and I did not have a 9-5 Mon-Fri I could break it down by region to see what the differences are region by region to see if it was standard across the country or if there were "hotspots", London being the most obvious example. [EDITED TO ADD (d)]

In answer to all of your questions, sadly I do not know! These are numbers that I got from the named sources. As for new/old dwellings occupation year round I would suggest that there are more properties that aren't fully occupied all year around in 2017 against 2000 simply because of the increase in multiple house ownership (2nd home / holiday home etc) but at the same time I would suggest there are far more students now crammed in HMO's in 2017 than 2000 due to the increase in student numbers ... additionally as you note there are more boomerangs in the family home but at the same time I would suggest that there are far more single widowers rattling around in 2/3+ bedroomed should-be-family properties in 2017 against 2000 due to increasing lifespans. All of this is subjective and difficult to quantify, if not impossible. Problems of averages?!

I have had a number of 'discussions' with family members, all of whom insist that it is population and a property shortage that have led to such rises over the past two decades so I actually looked this up ... this is an excerpt of a Facebook 'chat' we had: Latest UK population figures I can find are for 2017 so I have had to work with these. Q4 2000 UK Population: 58.923 million * UK Dwellings: 24.396 million ** UK Ave house price: £81,628 *** Q4 2017 UK Population: 65.648 million **** UK Dwellings: 27.228 million ** UK Ave house price: £211,433 *** So, 2000 to 2017: UK Population increase: x1.11 UK Dwellings increase: x1.12 (almost identical!) UK Ave house price increase: x2.59 (definitely not almost identical!) Also: Q4 2000 population : dwelling: 2.42 persons per dwelling [58.923/24.396] Q4 2017 population : dwelling: 2.41 persons per dwelling [65.648/27.228] * Population of United Kingdom 2000 - PopulationPyramid.net ** Total number of households by region and country of the UK, 1996 to 2017 - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) *** https://www.nationwide.co.uk/-/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/downloads/uk-house-price-since-1952.xls **** UK Population 2017 - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Any comments or queries? Have I dropped a clanger on any of these figures or calculations, or are my conclusions incorrect?

Good point. With rates this low and kitchen sink after kitchen sink being thrown at the market, I wonder or even fear what they will try if things do start going negative yoy (positive for anyone who just wants affordable shelter).

Unless the inheritance being waited for goes on £5/6k per month care home fees ...

Are the government still on the hook for Northern Rock? If so, use their mortgage 'knowledge" to resurrect the 125% mortgage.

Not disbelieving that that is what your lawyer said but aren't there about 27 million properties in the UK of all types, so 1 in 3 properties in the process of having title deeds changed (sold / probate etc.)?! Really?