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henry the king

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  1. Yeh, I know. Anyway the data coming out of South Africa is looking like its either a complete disaster or the best case scenario. It clearly spreads easily, so it is getting round immunity a shitload. But it remains to be seen if hospitalisations goes up in lock-step with case numbers. But yeh...not looking good. I strongly suspect that we will have domestic restrictions within the next few weeks.
  2. True, but they also have an overwhelming young population (I am guessing here I haven't checked). I would also imagine all waves start in the younger ages. That is how it worked every time in the UK anyway. Young people are more social the world over so I see no reason why it would be different in SA. If we believe the waste data, then they are likely at their delta peak now (this data is from 2 weeks ago), and yet hospitalisations are WAY WAY lower. It is looking very promising. Also there are biologically logical reasons why it wouldn't be as deadly because the virus has changed so much so it is very very possible that it is less stable and less of a good fit to receptors. That has been stated by several biological structure experts. This could be the end, like the Spainish flu.
  3. Looking more and more like the Omicrat variant is less deadly right? If we are believing South Africa waste water data (often the most reliable) then covid is close to where is was at the peak of the Delta wave in Pretoria area and yet Hospitalisations are 6 times lower than the peak of the Delta wave.
  4. Our economy is smaller than March 2020? No worries. House prices are 15% up. Bitcoin is absurdly high. Global stock markets are at all time highs. It just makes no sense whatsoever and is purely due to QE. Wait and see, as soon as they have to unwind it - which they will soon, it is going to cause a long period of asset prices deflation. When QE is unwound it is going to be crazy to see what happens. The effects of all that stimulus will be reversed. Houses could even go down 15% in a massive economic boom, purely because they will try to unwind QE
  5. They said originally that AZ gave much worse side effects on the first dose and Pfizer gave much worse side effects on the second dose. My personal experience with the second Pfizer dose was zero side effects, but the first made a little sick.
  6. Literally a 0% chance given Omicron. Any excuse they will take. 100 reasons to raise rates? Nah, we have 1 reason not to.
  7. Well at some stage they have to reverse the QE. Its actually mainly the fed which matters. The QE is bumping up all asset prices across the world. Once they go into reverse then asset prices decline. Simple as that really. However, I suspect governments are going to go hard to asset investors soon. I expect BTL landlords, crypto traders, even people with large stocks/shares portfolios to be hit with taxes even by conservatives. They have a huge target on their back as there is really no further they can tax on income/business.
  8. Pretty much. We are in abnormal times so the data is meaningless.
  9. Its fine. I see this forum the same way, I don't take any disagreements personally. In fact this place is rare for online discourse because most of the conversations are constructive rather than places like reddit/twitter which are just full of snarky comments. I think its obvious Omicron will cause a reduction in vaccine protection. I just do not think it will be significant. And I think the UK, with about 50% having been infected (and most vaccinated too), and loads of people boosted = I see no major problem. I would guess the UK is one of the most resilient countries in the world to variants given the uniquely high combination of vaccination and infection because of the smart decision to open up in May/June and finally July. Let the vaccinated people catch Delta to boost their immunity and broaden it. It was genius in hindsight. As Sarah Gilbert has said, the vaccines will work with all variants. Sure they might drop off slightly here and there and would maybe drop off more regarding infection/transmission. But we are never going back to an immunologically naïve population again. So we are going nowhere near March 2020 again. Not for covid-19 anyway. Maybe for covid-xx though. So I am not really worried beyond for unvaccinated people who never caught the virus yet. For them, any new variant which might spread a little more is bad news, but I really cannot see much we can do about them. If they still don't accept that the vaccine works (and will work on all variants in terms of severe disease - in the long term too probably due to the cellular response), then it sucks for them.
  10. Its just absolutely blatant hysteria. It will turn out that it doesn't do much. And if it does then we are ******ed anyway because it will change again and get round all our immunity even after the next vaccine. Anyway the UK has had about 50% infection rates (who have seen the whole virus) AND basically everyone else is vaccinated. So there is basically little chance any variant is going to get round our defences so I don't think we will end up with any more doses than 3.
  11. We'll see I guess, its pointless going over the same shit. If it ends up that Omicron is no big deal in the UK, as I don't think it will be, then I want you to have the guts to come here and admit I was right. If Omicron ends up dominant in December/January/February or something in the UK and causes a significant wave of hospitalisations (like 15k+ in hospital as in other big waves) then I will admit I was wrong. But I personally think it won't out-compete Delta. And even if it does the vaccines/prior infection will still work and stop almost all serious disease in the Uk anyway.
  12. I would never buy a leasehold ever. I would just rent until I could get a freehold. It is a scam.
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