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House Price Crash Forum

henry the king

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About henry the king

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  1. In a holding pattern currently with low sales volumes as no forced sellers so people just leave it on the market till someone eventually pays the money. Basically impossible for prices to fall until rates go up, or inflation goes up relative to wages, investors get taxed more or we get a recession and unemployment. Need 3 of those 4 things to happen. Currently we have 2 only just starting to happen with the potential for the other 2. But no fall yet, just static prices.
  2. At least the rampant hpi has ended. In real terms house prices are flat in the last year.
  3. Roughly flat imo Could be anything though due to the low volumes
  4. Distressed buyers thrown into the mix would cause a crash. I predict modest 5% falls in real terms in 2018 but there is the potential for a crash. The bonfire has been built, it just needs a trigger and we are off to hpc
  5. This is the best news. With stagnant to falling real terms wages and political uncertainty things are looking good
  6. Politically impossible to give landlords tax breaks with their coalition. In addition a review means nothing. Would be years before any changes.
  7. This number reflects about what february was on the up to date indexes like nw and hf. So no surprises.
  8. It is just natural, what goes up must come down unless there is some reason for the rise such as extra demand for something - like oil went out when cars became more popular. There is no reason for housing to go up 200% so it must come down. The rise is driven by rabid sentiment and investors. Those conditions cannot last forever
  9. This is amazing news. The best we have had in a long time. I think people are thinking we need a financial crash again to get a hpc. We Dont need this! In the 90s hpc occured with no financial crash. Bubbles pop all the time and it doesnt mean a financial crash. So it is fine, we can have a nice hpc without a financial crash. It is happening i think
  10. Worth noting the lse research cited lower real terms wages as cause for a house price correction. It is going to happen. 2017 is the worst year ever to buy a house as prices will decline from here. Funny how all these economists are finally saying the things that are obvious to us here. Real terms wage decreases means house price falls. The question now is how this happens. Does it crash, does it fall slowly or does inflation cause the real terms falls with 5 years of stagnant house prices. Time will tell.
  11. Well according to both nw and hf indexes the house prices are currently going down in real terms over the last year. That is amazing news and those cold hard facts. It is hard to look too far ahead but the uk economy is weakening and so i would expect the next year to show roughly flat nominal house prices for a real terms decline of around 3 or 4%. Not great but still i would be satisfied with 2 years of back to back real terms declines in house prices.
  12. I mean negative house price growth on both indicies by the end of the year in terms of year on year. It would be the evidence that houses are going down at last
  13. I just hope we hit year on year negative rates by the end of the year. If not i might lose a little faith. I am pretty sure we will get negative rates though
  14. Sentiment behind the pros and cons of high house prices has changed too. And this impacts politics. People used to think hpi was amazing. No longer, they think it sucks now. Only a few landlords with 15 properties want hpi. Even owners with kids dont want hpi as their kids cant buy. The result is that the tory party got crushed by everyone under 60 years old. Which means everyone with kids said no to the tories in a massive way. They arent stupid, so they will no longer want to enforce higher house prices and less owner rates. If they do this then they lose a landslide even to someone like cor
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