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Twenty Something

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Everything posted by Twenty Something

  1. The guy is a complete clown show. Let’s face it, neither Kirsty or Phil are going to block someone for having a difference of opinion. My money is on he’s relentlessly posted BS on their feeds about whatever his mot du jour is today, and they’ve decided to block him. Of course he’s parading round here like a champion proclaiming the usual gush about how the vested interests don’t get it and they’ve blocked him. Quite ironic really for someone who throws a tantrum and blocks anyone who doesn’t support his far left ideology.
  2. Ooo. I think I know the answer to this. Is it because Rishi Sunak isn’t involved in interest rate setting?
  3. It's what can happen to a man when he is wrong about something for so many years. He becomes angry that life isn't playing out how he expected / wanted it to, and therefore this anger is projected onto anyone with a different opinion as if they are the reason for all failings. It's the same thought process (if you can call it that) as he had with me the other week. Unable to accept that anyone could deviate from the huge property crash mantra, he resorts to calling people scumlords and all sorts of other nonsense. Unfortunately for people like this they are incapable of deviating from such strongly ingrained beliefs, however often they are proven to be wrong. It's like a religion whereby absolute unwavering fanaticism in the cause is required lest ye burn in hell. The fact that he is unable to construct a well reasoned argument, preferring instead to box everything up into neat titles such as estate agent, scumlord, union scum and so on really tells you everything you need to know. When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser.
  4. But as we've covered previously, that is common sense rather than insightful, and I cannot imagine anyone not doing research and trying to get the best deal they possibly can, however stupid you think the man on the street is. That isn't what I am commenting on however, which I suspect you understand, but won't of course address. I am commenting on your ability (and you are far from alone) to repeatedly state that you are observing things happening that are clearly not, and then when pulled up on it (again), are unable to even consider that you have been wrong. I get it, it's the internet and nobody is going to lose face, but I suspect you are seeing what you want to see, as opposed to what is actually happening. Confirmation bias as it were. Things haven't been 'slowing'. The market hasn't been 'frothy'. Prices have been accelerating upwards at pace both anecdotally and factually, yet again and again you are of course seeing the opposite and have anecdotes about how your neighbour paid £200,000 more than you for a comparable property. You can only cry wolf so many times before people who exist outside of this echo chamber are just going to laugh.
  5. Is this like the 'froth' of the last however many years? According to your observations, things have been 'slowing' pretty much non stop for the past 18 months or so. Given the continued increase in prices that have undeniably occurred, where is the slowing? I guess if you keep posting that things are slowing you will be right at some point in the future. As per @MonsieurCopperCrutchabove, how many times are you people going to keep being wrong before you assess your world view?
  6. I guess I’d question the sanity of anyone basing the biggest financial decision of their lives around an Internet forum, but maybe it’s more common than I think?
  7. Given that my account has been active since 2005, it probably sinks that particular line of thought?
  8. It would be more honest really to say as above - I’m really angry and want to watch the world burn as opposed to dressing it up into a noble cause, or saying I could buy but choose not to. I rented for a large period of my life and it was great, so there are always reasons, but as I get older I just don’t get it. I want to paint my walls whatever colour I want…Maybe I’m too poor to understand the habits of the truly wealthy? Only you know the reality you’re staring at. If you’re immensely wealthy then good for you, but I’d be willing to bet there is a lot of creative thinking on this site.
  9. My theory is that the ones who shout the loudest on here can’t buy as opposed to won’t, which is the reason they yearn for a devastating crash that takes all of society with it. Bit of a case of if I can’t have it then nobody can. Let’s face it, if you’re worth millions in investments as some here claim to be, you’re not going to spend your days posting angrily about the current situation. You’re likely to have a far more moderate view of I don’t think it’s great but such is life, or you’re off on a boat somewhere in the south of France. I agree with you completely. If you’ve put off buying somewhere on the advice of this forum for getting on 20 years, you are probably pretty fed up…
  10. I don’t view you saying a fall of 10-20% is an extreme opinion at all, and it is entirely plausible. Predicting 70% drops and people shooting one another in the aisles of Tesco however is, not that you have of course. I largely agree with you. I said in another thread that I don’t see prices moving by more than 30% either way over the next decade, which I don’t view as an extreme opinion either. Where I do disagree is that sentiment has changed - I see no evidence of that but then that is my lived experience and you may see otherwise. I also see prices extending as they are far further than the next six months. Even if you’re right and we’re on the edge of the precipice, price falls take years to manifest. I think from memory the financial crash of 2007/8 took 3 years to see prices drop 27% or thereabouts. If it happens, it won’t happen overnight and will be a drawn out process. But on the whole, a 10-20% fall in the coming years. Sure, could happen. Thinking back to your first post however, I’d caution you against making absolute claims that this is it, the crash is here, they’re out of bullets. As per my reply, the top has been called here more times than I’ve had hot dinners.
  11. Depends on your definition of fairly recently, but yes, within the last couple of years, so in the context of a mortgage term pretty recently? I'm not pro HPI in the sense that I think what has happened recently is great, but if you want an explanation of why I post here, it is probably because it helps me to consider viewpoints that are opposed to my own, and quite frankly, passes a bit of downtime sighing at the regulars who seem to wake up every day with a new theory or conviction that the crash is here. You've got discussions about stockpiling supplies and living in air raid shelters, buying guns and knives to defend food, 75% price collapses, 1970's inflation, sovereign defaults and so on and so forth. Maybe this will all come to pass, maybe it won't, but I also consider it interesting that a group of people can be so consistently wrong, yet remain so steadfast in their convictions that they are right and it is in fact everyone else who just doesn't get it. I don't include all in that, and there is still some healthy debate, but I guess it is strangely compelling reading all the I told you so type threads which have failed to materialise. The picture you are trying to paint of me is a made up extreme, populated with the usual worn out cliches such as scumlord and mad gainz. I have never said it is an absolute certainty that there can never be a crash, never be anything that stops the train, and that it is HPI forever. I have no intention of becoming a land(scum)lord, and no intention of selling up my house for mad gainz anytime soon either. What's the point? I need somewhere to live and now would be a horrible time to be trying to buy. You espouse a worn out and tired viewpoint that has been done to death by the regulars here - i.e. you are worried and posting lots to try and keep the bubble going. How much influence do you suppose this site has? Is me posting an alternative viewpoint that has actually proven to be correct so far going to stop any impending crash? Do my posts carry such weight that they will be on the front pages tomorrow and impact upon policy? Of course not. I wasn't under the impression that this site was exclusively about HPC, or at least, that doesn't seem to be what the mods are saying? I just happen to be in a very small minority of posters who go against the status quo, and instead of trying to attribute my difference of opinion to being scared or worried about a crash, you could possibly consider that I have called things pretty accurately over the past year.
  12. But if there is poor supply and lots of demand as is happening all over the place at the moment then prices will sustain / go up. They don’t need any bullets, and it’s going to take a big shift in interest rates to make any meaningful impact on affordability. How realistic is it that interest rates head up to what, 5, 6, 7% over the next few years, let alone ten percent or whatever number you care to dream of? Everyone one who owns sits tight as there is little of quality to buy, and first time buyers continue to frantically hoover up the help to buy / other props side of the market. I see nothing at present fundamentally changing this.
  13. Another out of bullets prediction. It's been a little while I guess since the last one.
  14. And phrased like that I could have some degree of agreement with you. Low interest rates and cheap easy money have become an accepted norm, and I'm not saying I am blind to the possible consequences of that.
  15. So, again you're changing the argument / making up a stance. 1) The general public probably will care if interest rates rise, just as they will care if petrol stays inflated after the current madness, or their Christmas Turkey is out of stock. I've not stated they won't. You have again made up a stance as if to counter something I have posted because you seem incapable of grounding your responses in something I have actually written - you might as well go sit in a room on your own and have a back and forth with the wall. 2) I don't profess to understand what the average person under 35 thinks, that's your speciality apparently, although you also include everyone of any age in any part of the country (? World). I would put good money on it that all of my friends could explain how interest rates work, and what impact rises would have on their mortgage repayments. I would make the same statement for all the youngsters I work with whether they own a house or not. I would also bet good money that most 'average' people under 35 who own a property could also outline the exact same thing. 3) You have been posting things similar to 'let's see how it pans out' for getting on the last 14 years. Just how have your previous predictions 'panned out'? Stupid sheeple, property bubble go pop, repeat after me. Maybe things will go as you so yearn for with a world ending financial collapse. Maybe they won't. Unlike yourself, I'm open to the possibility of both scenarios, though in reality I suspect things won't deviate by more than 30% either way from where we are now over the next decade. 4) People unable to get by with £20 a week less in benefits aren't the same people who are out bidding on London new builds. What another bizarre comparison to make!
  16. Nope, and if you actually read and digested what was being posted, you’d see that I wasn’t. I very clearly and evidentially posted that according to the ONS, debt rose steadily through to a record high in 2008. That is where it peaked. The highest point. The top. Therefore, and I am going to spell this out for you, your post stating that the general public have never been in as much debt as they are now is by all the measures I can find wrong. Of course instead of saying oh ok, you now want to make up that I was referring to the 80’s, which I wasn’t. I’m not sure how much clearer I can make this for you? You now seem to have completely missed the point being made about WW2. You were originally putting forward the viewpoint that unless you have physically experienced something, you can’t be aware of its impact. Take what you want - WW2, interest rate rises, the Brixton riots whatever, it doesn’t matter. You don’t have to have lived through something to have an understanding of it. How does history work? I didn’t live through many historical problems but I can still appreciate them as bad things. Your argument that because ‘many’ didn’t live through the last crash, they are clueless is ridiculous. Buying a property is just that. You take possession of the physical structure. That is what by law you are doing. How far into the rabbit hole do you want to go? People didn’t realise they’d have to replace the cooker? Take a new mortgage rate? Do the electrics and so on and so on and so on. What an utterly pointless argument.
  17. Ok. To move things along from your inability to construct a well worded argument. Your post above has more holes than a sieve. 1) To have an appreciation WW2 as an example was bad, do I need to have lived through it? Sure, when I close my eyes at night I might not hear the air raid sirens and get flashbacks to bombs whistling through the air, but does that mean I can’t understand that the event wasn’t a positive thing for ‘many’? Your argument seems to be that because people are in some cases too young to have lived through high interest rates as an example, that they are therefore incapable of understanding it as a potentially bad thing for them? Has everyone who was caught out by rising rates in the past, and there will have been many, learned their lesson and never brought a property again? You as an example seem quite happy to speak for the masses in insinuating they are idiots, yet have you experienced as it were their lives? 2) Your statement that in the past the average person has had ‘nothing like the debt burden they have today’ is incorrect. From the ONS - ‘Debt as a proportion of household income rose from 85% in 1997 to 148% at its peak in early 2008.’ It has now decreased to 133% To add a bit more colour to this for you, they also note that ‘the cost of servicing debt is lower now than it was historically secondary to low interest rates.’ Counter this all you want with well interest rates are going up, but as it stands presently your statement is demonstrably wrong. 3) The bit from so onwards…You again seem to be professing to understand the motives of ‘many’. To turn your first argument back on you, have you lived through all these people’s lives and experiences? If not, how can you really understand? The truth of course is you can’t. You want to lump property purchasers together into a collective who are all thick, don’t understand basic economics, and drive around in PCP mercs with their greasy hair and cheap aftershave. You can’t of course hope to be taken seriously with this viewpoint outside of this forum, but screaming home owners are stupid is a convenient way to disguise your own shortcomings, many of which I pointed out to you last time we clashed about your abysmal history of predictions. All you’ve really done is try to construct an argument from a bunch of assumptions about the ‘many’. Can you present any evidence to backup your assertions? I suspect not. Putting everything into neat little boxes such as homeowners = idiots prevents you from having to give any thought to your opinion, and of course it is lapped up on here amongst a congregation who would in some instances I suspect sell a kidney to see an economy ruining crash. When challenged, really all you have is you didn’t read my post properly and here is a load of assumptions I’ve made to prove a point. I strongly suspect you’re just angry because the sheeple have got on with their lives, but that would leave me open to accusations of assuming things about my fellow man, so I’ll stop there.
  18. Well why not post that then instead of what you did put up which I’ll quote again for clarity. “If interest rates rise they have not bought what they thought they did, or do you disagree with this?“ If you are now expanding upon this to imply that everyone goes into a property purchase because it’s going to go up in value, then I again re-iterate my point that I don’t view huge numbers of the British public as financially illiterate morons who lack the insight and intelligence to understand the way of the world. I would indeed put forward the view that all these people have done incredibly well over the past 15 years that you have been banging on about price crashes and sheeple. To expand even further, it is your viewpoint that if people understood that property prices could drop then demand would go off a cliff edge? Or, if people possessed the special predictive powers of interest rate direction held by posters such as yourself then they would all run for the hills? You genuinely hold yourself in such high regard / others in such contempt that you believe they don’t understand that interest rates could rise and cause a reversal in price movements?
  19. Probably the most sensible thing you have ever posted!
  20. Blimey you’ve changed your tune. Maybe you should start another “I told you” thread!?
  21. Shhhhh. Remember, I'm on your trolls list and you are supposed to have blocked me so you can't see any of my posts. I would (pretend) block you back, but your predictions provide too much entertainment.
  22. I think you and me sit at such opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to the top three reasons people buy houses that we will never find a common ground. You said: And I still stick with the responses above that no, they have still brought a property and yes, I do disagree with this. We've been here before with you changing the meaning of your original quote to suit an argument haven't we?
  23. I've just read this again from the start, and it pretty much has it all. A statement based in reality that everything is just ticking along, followed by 5 pages of the usual suspects climbing over each other to see who can be the most wrong. Again.
  24. Well I guess without any context / seeing the properties in question we could go back and forth for the foreseeable, so I'll park that one there as I assume no links will be forthcoming - fair enough. I never have tried to push the theory that prices won't fall - of course they can. I seem to remember a while back actually you agreeing with me that if you look over a long enough period of time, all of us will eventually be right. So yeah, keep stretching things out by another 7 years and then another 7 years, and so on, and you will no doubt at some point in the future be able to say well ha, told you so. That's the point I'm making however. If every year you post about froth and wide bandwidth, and then every year things just go up even more, then it says to me that your underlying reasoning / beliefs / interpretation of the economy is /are wrong. It says to me it isn't froth, but it is actually just a rising market which you either choose to participate in or not. When have people ever not had to exercise caution buying a property? It's the biggest purchase most of us are ever likely to make, so exercise caution is probably what 99.99% of people are doing anyway? As for a wide bandwidth in prices, not down here, so maybe it's just your part of the world? Your posts make me think of having a skateboard when I was younger. Most days I'd go out and play on it, and most days my mum would say you're going to hurt yourself one day if you're not careful. Low and behold one day I did, and she got to say well I told you that would happen. Telling me on the morning I hit the lamppost would have been far more useful than repeatedly warning for years well something bad could happen if you don't watch out. You and many others on here will no doubt one day have your day in the sun telling people like me well we told you so. Killer Bunny will come back again (again, again, again), and the count of nowhere will be virtually strutting around proclaiming property lion predicted it all and those trolls are all quiet now aren't they. Reminds me of the theory that if you put a bunch of monkeys in-front of typewriters they will eventually create the complete works of Shakespeare.
  25. They did? Even if they did, how does that mean they’ve brought something other than a property? They bid on a property. They then brought a property. Whatever happens to prices they still have that property. Still don’t really see what point you’re trying to make? For what it’s worth, I actually doubt most people buy something because it’s a financial punt / will make mad gainz. I actually think that is pretty low down most people’s list. They want security, to put down roots, to build a future and so on. Sure, they’re not going to complain if prices go up, but again, I don’t share the same disdain for the British public that many here do.
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