fellow

Good spot. That could explain the unusually large GPD growth in March?

This^ See above. Without imputed rent increases, GDP growth would likely be negative. Also, as this is a made up figure and makes up such a large proportion of GDP, they could easily manipulate this to keep growth above zero if they were incentivised to do so.

10% of GDP is made up - it simply does not exist in the real world https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/ "As part of the work I have been doing on GDP for the glossary a comment was made about the little-known element within GDP that is made up of imputed rents paid by owner-occupiers of housing in the UK for the entitlement that they are deemed to have of living in their own houses rent free. In 2021 actual rents paid for housing in the UK were £87 billion. These were massively overshadowed by imputed rentals for housing, which were £231 billion. This is the sum that for GDP accounting purposes an owner occupier is deemed to pay themselves for the right to live in their own home. This sum has supposedly to be added to GDP to make sure UK GDP data is comparable with the GDP data of countries, like Germany, where renting is very much more common than it is in this country. As is apparent from the table the net result is that over the last decade, just over 10% on average of GDP has literally been made up. There is no such income in this country. Nor is any tax paid on it." ONS methodology for imputed rents confirming this makes up 10% of GDP: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/changestonationalaccounts/imputedrental "Imputed rental represents around 10% of GDP as measured by expenditure."

It looks like we would need to fight the Russians for it first.

"Junior minister David Rutley last week told the EAC that his department had decided to trust Russian assurances it was just conducting scientific research, adding: “Russia has recently reaffirmed its commitment to the key elements of the treaty.” Experts on the region disagree, warning that placing any trust in Russia to stick to its obligations was naive – as shown by its invasion of Ukraine."

What's nuts is refuting evidence without providing any counter evidence.

Whereas the evidence suggests my theory is spot on: Bonds falling out of favour with pension schemes https://www.pensionsage.com/pa/Bonds-falling-out-avour-with-pensions.php "Pension fund investment in bonds is falling fast, transforming what was once a portfolio mainstay into a minority asset, according to a report from Bloomberg Intelligence (BI). A little over 20 years ago, almost two thirds (65 per cent) of all gilts were owned by pension schemes and insurers; today, that has fallen to below a quarter (24 per cent), BI said. The firm predicted that, if UK pensions continue to sell off gilts at the annual rate seen in recent years, they may step out of the bond market completely. Defined benefits (DB) schemes have traditionally held high proportions of UK government securities or gilts. But DB schemes are largely becoming “a thing of the past”, said BI, with existing DB funds focusing on moving towards members’ retirements, and no new schemes being set up. As such, these schemes are selling off, rather than buying up, gilts. BI senior insurance analyst, Kevin Ryan, said: “UK pension funds have typically invested in instruments such as gilts and cash to match maturing liabilities as scheme members moved into drawing their pensions. "As companies have almost universally shifted to defined contribution (DC) schemes – and DB schemes have largely closed to both new members and new contributions – pension plans have significantly less natural demand for gilts.” He added: “If UK pension funds continue to sell gilts at the recent annual rate, they could be out of the bonds in seven years.” The fall in demand for UK gilts among pension schemes could pose a challenge for the UK government as it seeks investment, with a possible solution to be found in higher coupon payments, Ryann stated: “The UK Office of Budget Responsibility forecasts that in fiscal 2023-24 the government will need to borrow £123.9 billion, followed by £84.6 billion the year after and £76.8 billion in 2025-26"." FYI @Tony_Teacake.

@Bruce Banner @scottbeard manipulation confirmed: 10% of GDP is made up - it simply does not exist in the real world https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/ "As part of the work I have been doing on GDP for the glossary a comment was made about the little-known element within GDP that is made up of imputed rents paid by owner-occupiers of housing in the UK for the entitlement that they are deemed to have of living in their own houses rent free. In 2021 actual rents paid for housing in the UK were £87 billion. These were massively overshadowed by imputed rentals for housing, which were £231 billion. This is the sum that for GDP accounting purposes an owner occupier is deemed to pay themselves for the right to live in their own home. This sum has supposedly to be added to GDP to make sure UK GDP data is comparable with the GDP data of countries, like Germany, where renting is very much more common than it is in this country. As is apparent from the table the net result is that over the last decade, just over 10% on average of GDP has literally been made up. There is no such income in this country. Nor is any tax paid on it." ONS methodology for imputed rents confirming this makes up 10% of GDP: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/changestonationalaccounts/imputedrental "Imputed rental represents around 10% of GDP as measured by expenditure."

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/northern-lights-london-weather-aurora-borealis-bbc-meteorologist-itv-b1157001.html

Without that £10 billion borrowed per month, we would not have achieved even the small amount of growth we have seen over the last year. That was my point. This bigger point is the longer this borrowing continues, the worse the long term prospects for the UK economy will be.

Kind of related to this thread: Families with TWO retired generations will surge to one million in a decade https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-13400823/Families-TWO-retired-generations-surge-one-million-decade.html?

I think this was the real reason for the 30+ year downward trend in interest rates as the boomers' generous pensions bought up all the government bonds. It's no coincidence that rates have started going up now the boomers are mostly retired and have started drawing down their pensions. The money they are now withdrawing from the bond markets is not being replaced fast enough by younger generations who are saving much less in their much less generous pension schemes. This is one of the reasons we will never see super low rates again.

Up to 200 jobs at risk at Aberystwyth University https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cxe9r8ml5nvo

Nope, the rate of borrowing (deficit) has fallen but debt has still increased by a whopping £120 billion over the last twelve months. this is unsustainable and massive spending cuts or tax rises are needed to balance the books (after the election).

And we have achieved that by borrowing a mere £10 billion per month: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/march2024#:~:text=Borrowing in the financial year ending (FYE) March 2024 was,for Budget Responsibility (OBR). "Borrowing in the financial year ending (FYE) March 2024 was provisionally estimated at £120.7 billion, £7.6 billion less than in the same twelve-month period a year ago but £6.6 billion more than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)."

Rising mortgage rates and a stalled housing market: Why it’s feeling very 2005 https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/money/property-and-mortgages/mortgage-rates-housing-market-stall-2005-3048846

It looks like the +0.4% MoM was partly due to an Early Easter which brought forward sales from April. https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements--/uk-april-retail-sales-hit-by-wet-weather-early-easter---brc--16726108.html

He obviously doesn't recognise sarcasm because 7% is quite the oposite of a drop in the ocean, the contagion of which could lead to credit crunch 2.0. I think the last paragraph needs repeating for those that didn't read to the end: "I am not predicting which day this is going to happen but one thing I expect to see is another Financial Crisis which will make 2008 look like it was only a warmup. What I am going to say when this fully plays out we are going to see a huge collapse in the stock market and real estate. If anybody has been looking at the bubbles we have experienced in the stock markets, bond markets and real estate over the last few years you would have learned that all of these 3 pillars of the economy have never been in a super bubble at the same time and this is why when do they collapse I believe what we are going to see is possibly the biggest crash of all time. Unfortunately, I can see this getting very ugly."

Do we really need yet another interest rate thread? Five IR threads now on the front page drowning out everything else.

Temporary green shoots will be replaced by long term pain straight after the election. Exactly. Either way, a world of pain is coming straight after the election.

The house we're buying has been downvalued by £40k: What should we do? https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-13391933/The-house-buying-downvalued-40k-do.html?

Selfridges to axe 70 jobs https://www.drapersonline.com/news/selfridges-to-axe-70-jobs

Yes, lower house prices.

We will see savage cuts. . . . in spending.

I think what RICS are essentially saying is the recent slight uptick was just a bull trap due to falling interest rate delusions, and we are likely to see falling prices from here. If the Spring bounce didn't materialise then the Summer market is likely to be worse.