Will Russia invade Ukraine and what happens if it escalates with NATO/US getting involved

[Brave New World]

3 hours ago, IMHAL said:

@Brave New World

Since you seem to dislike subjective waffle we can cut to the facts.

- Russia annexed the Crimea

- Russia sent little green men into the Donbas under the pre-text it was protecting Russian speakers to protect them from 'genocide'.....really?

- The Russian's claim that the Ukraine is a nazi state (what????), which is twaddle and worthy of Goebbels for double speak.

- Russia invaded a sovereign country with a democratically elected government with the intent of taking them with overwhelming military force.

- The Russian have a play book perfected in Syria that they are enacting right now. Flattening town and cities and displacing the population not seen since WW2.

- The Russian are brutal and are committing crimes of war on an unprecedented level (Syria excepted).

You rare either in denial, a useful fool or in pay of others. I have my view of what you are.  

So basic in your grasp of your so called 'facts' you are the product of The Sun comments section. The word nuanced is sorely missing from your grasp of the situation. 

Fact 1 (from your list of top Sun picks). There was an election in crimea over sovereignty but don't let that worry your simplistic view of when elections do and don't count. Just as per happened in 2014. Wait less than 18months and vote in UN observed elections, nah hillary has sent black ops and suitcases of cash.

Fact 2&3 please do name the right wing militants who wear a black Sun who've been operating in that region. A region,  pre the messed up actions of mafioso dictator, that was majority russian. Perhaps read up on the amnesty report on what happened to gay rights activists in the region. Remind me what the ethnic balance is donehtsk is please? Actually don't.  Again the country of ukraine was a post US meddling basket case, tonnes of natural resources but a nation set up like so many....on the hoof with no clear direction. Again does not equal what is happening now but the west walked away and left this situation to burn.

Fact 4 - links below you naive so and so. Of course the numerous bbc reports and amnesty observations are all propaaagandaer....

Fact 5 - Syria, wow. You can barely grasp the basics in real time of the pretext of ukraine, Syria? If you want to we can talk about the use of isis there, so too indiscriminate bombing by the west but its beyond you. You also missed seemingly the 2.6trillion bombing of the middle east of the last 20years. Ps maybe better to reference Grozny but then you really know very little and explains why you didnt. The Sun won't give you the knowledge you need....

Fact 6 - no one is questioning that. As you see from my posts it is horrific and abject what is happening.  Hopefully a sign to younger generations that the boomer generation approach with war is utterly pointless and moribund in future.  Although this message board struggles with seeing the hypocrisy  of US meddling (cos they love the regime change) pre 2014 in overthrowing an elected government (next elections were 18months away), an election over seen by the UN. 

 

Wholly myopic, basic binary grasp you have but hopefully others will think the links informative, those that can get beyond the good guy bad guy bovine narrative.

 

For those that dont get their ques from the murdoch press....

https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/europe-and-central-asia/ukraine/report-ukraine/

 

https://youtu.be/hE6b4ao8gAQ

 

and lets hope some on here can see that having a non binary view does not somehow make folk putin assets....what is this Mccarthy era stupidityl?!

[zugzwang]

24 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

China won't want to see Russia fall as they share a huge border, they would not want to defend against any western friendly advances. Think of Russia like a big buffer, as is N. Korea is to absorb the US friendly south.

 

China does 10x as much trade with Europe and the US than it does with Russia.

[Riedquat]

30 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

China won't want to see Russia fall as they share a huge border, they would not want to defend against any western friendly advances. Think of Russia like a big buffer, as is N. Korea is to absorb the US friendly south.

Then they need to be putting pressure on Russia to stop making such a bloody mess of things. China's interests don't lie with anyone winning a war, they lie with it being over ASAP and things being stable.

[Lucky Larry]

44 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I take it you know that Healey later admitted he said that because Howe's attack had hit home and he had no other response.

trust me nothing that individual says about me has any affect

[Riedquat]

56 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

WW3 is a bust as it achieves nothing other than another dinosaur moment.  Biden should be introducing a no fly zone imo.  Make Putin play his cards and bottle out.

An argument that only works when you're dealing with completely rational people and not someone who might think everyone going down with him is better than losing. Or who might even believe he could win such a war.

[Si1]

Just now, Riedquat said:

Then they need to be putting pressure on Russia to stop making such a bloody mess of things. China's interests don't lie with anyone winning a war, they lie with it being over ASAP and things being stable.

I wonder how much Putin's ego competes with Xi's?

[Lucky Larry]

39 minutes ago, FallingAwake said:

so clearly the Chinese state is not impartial, as some seem to think it might be.

Well I certainly don't , the Chinese will always act in their own interest first.

[shlomo]

[Peter Hun]

1 hour ago, Staffsknot said:

Ok to inject ten seconds of reality and not take a side.

That is a snap ambush with vehicle riders as well in the armoured column. The dismounts run to the opposite side of the road as they in the killing zone of an ambush. Its an anti-ambush drill.

I realise most people are new to this but if they go towards the shot they block return fire from the rest of the column, so they go to where the enemy is not - the right of picture as nobody is shit enough to position their own people both sides of an ambush.

The missile looks like a remote trigger too from my POV. Anyone firing from there without follow-up fire is dead, big balls are great but not needed.

There's also a blast higher in the woods prior to fire. Unknown what cause.

Basically the column reacts how you should once pinged. Extract everyone from harms way and engage the position.

Again I realise this is a struggle for most people who only watch films but sitting in the kill zone while Arnie puts holes in you, with you only being able to hit the water cooler and trees in return is just that, Hollywood.

 

Pit,  I liked my fantasy answer. Thanks for the reality.

Seems incredibly risky attacking like that.

 

[Peter Hun]

2 hours ago, Flat Bear said:

Hopefully.

Unfortunately there are very few Putin boxes in Central London.

[skinnylattej]

4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

 

When Russia takes the Ukraine it will have gained far more resources than it the cost of sanctions and will quickly place nuclear armed forces in both Belarus and the Ukraine. That will not be an end of Putin's plans, just a stepping stone to applying pressure on the next targets.

Russia's aim will be to increase energy and commodity prices to a level that causes populations in Western countries to rebel against increased defence spending and elect governments that believe the line that you are pushing that everything is the fault of an aggressive West. 

 

I do not agree with the above.  IMV If Russia takes Ukraine, Russia will be faced with a long and difficult terrorist war as I do not believe the Ukrainians will give up.  It may turn out to be another Afghanistan, where both the Russians and later the US+allies failed to tame the country.  Others on this thread have suggested that the drain on resources would have a catastrophic effect on the morale of the military and public opinion in Russia, as well as the Russian economy.  It is not likely that the West will remove sanctions while there is a low level war in Ukraine.

Again, this is only my view, and I'm aware that I do not have the detailed understanding of others, but suppose the rate of attrition of Russian lives is high, and the situation moves towards the Ukrainians winning.  Putin has no political escape route, it is his war, he is the leader of Russia.  The oligarchs will be hurting from sanctions, the economy will be in a bad way, and the body bags will be numerous.  If Putin is replaced, it is probable that the replacement will be one of his henchmen, who will be faced with a choice; increase the war on the Ukraine, or capitulate.  The economic and human costs of the former will be high, and the political costs of the latter will be very high, and may lead to political instability within Russia.  The potential risks of a nuclear armed state with unstable government make me shudder.

Russia's may be aim to increase energy prices, but by what mechanism?  If Russia restricts exports of gas and oil, it will further damage it's economy.  Maybe China will take more Russian oil and gas, but China will scent weakness and drive a very hard bargain.  Similarly, the increase in grain prices will happen, the farmers in Ukraine have no diesel or fertilizer, and are unlikely to plant in fields in a combat zone.  UK grain prices are going up very steeply already.  The situation in North Africa will become critical over the next 12 months, as there will be little grain and the ports handling export are trashed.  We may see the 'Arab Spring 2.0'.

Sadly, whichever route is taken, there will be more loss of life and destruction of Ukraine.  But I can't see a swift end to the conflict.

Finally, following some extra-ordinary commentary up-thread, I make it abundantly clear that in my view Putin is a despotic crook surrounded by corrupt Russian mafia, who collectively has invaded another country and whose military has committed appalling acts of viciousness on the civilian population.  I stop short of using the term 'war crimes' as the subject of international law is outside my area of expertise.

[Bob8]

14 minutes ago, skinnylattej said:

I do not agree with the above.  IMV If Russia takes Ukraine, Russia will be faced with a long and difficult terrorist war as I do not believe the Ukrainians will give up.  It may turn out to be another Afghanistan, where both the Russians and later the US+allies failed to tame the country.  Others on this thread have suggested that the drain on resources would have a catastrophic effect on the morale of the military and public opinion in Russia, as well as the Russian economy.  It is not likely that the West will remove sanctions while there is a low level war in Ukraine.

Again, this is only my view, and I'm aware that I do not have the detailed understanding of others, but suppose the rate of attrition of Russian lives is high, and the situation moves towards the Ukrainians winning.  Putin has no political escape route, it is his war, he is the leader of Russia.  The oligarchs will be hurting from sanctions, the economy will be in a bad way, and the body bags will be numerous.  If Putin is replaced, it is probable that the replacement will be one of his henchmen, who will be faced with a choice; increase the war on the Ukraine, or capitulate.  The economic and human costs of the former will be high, and the political costs of the latter will be very high, and may lead to political instability within Russia.  The potential risks of a nuclear armed state with unstable government make me shudder.

Russia's may be aim to increase energy prices, but by what mechanism?  If Russia restricts exports of gas and oil, it will further damage it's economy.  Maybe China will take more Russian oil and gas, but China will scent weakness and drive a very hard bargain.  Similarly, the increase in grain prices will happen, the farmers in Ukraine have no diesel or fertilizer, and are unlikely to plant in fields in a combat zone.  UK grain prices are going up very steeply already.  The situation in North Africa will become critical over the next 12 months, as there will be little grain and the ports handling export are trashed.  We may see the 'Arab Spring 2.0'.

Sadly, whichever route is taken, there will be more loss of life and destruction of Ukraine.  But I can't see a swift end to the conflict.

Finally, following some extra-ordinary commentary up-thread, I make it abundantly clear that in my view Putin is a despotic crook surrounded by corrupt Russian mafia, who collectively has invaded another country and whose military has committed appalling acts of viciousness on the civilian population.  I stop short of using the term 'war crimes' as the subject of international law is outside my area of expertise.

Thanks for that.

[IMHAL]

7 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

Thanks for that.

Ditto. 

[Staffsknot]

1 hour ago, Peter Hun said:

Pit,  I liked my fantasy answer. Thanks for the reality.

Seems incredibly risky attacking like that.

 

I think the second puff of smoke is the passive launch. Obviously I've normally not viewed it side on 🙂

What the purpose of the attack was - forces a deploy and response. You can now hit them with artillery or just slow the advance down.

Shorter ranges give less opportunity for reaction by an enemy / more surprise.

Ambush you take out the lead or 2nd vehicle + rear vehicle. If you nail the rear vehicle they can't back up out of the killing zone. Nail the lead everyone can't go forward.

If its soft skin vehicles you drill the canvas sides back to front at the rear with fire so any troops inside don't make it out the back.

Every other man has a weapon on automatic or burst fire with other on single shot so everyone doesn't empty their mag at the same time.

NLAW is one way of triggering the ambush.

People are predictable if you can see cover you know where they will move to. This just looks small scale 1 and done hit. Which is why I think remote trigger or the guy is dead.

The video halts before the Russians do what is expected and begin a fight through the posn. Its how you cut a video to show what looks best. I'm sure the Russians would edit one to not show the hit and just them engaging the position.

Truth is there's a lot of kids of 17 or 18 with 3 days training manning checkpoints in Brovary and nearby. They aren't professional soldiers and we have to hope they get home safe without the stuff 17 and 18 year olds should not have stuck in their heads. War ages you, I hope they don't lose their youth or worse. Believe me the smell of a human being burned stays with you and it doesn't matter if its one of yours or theirs.

Its why I don't like the keyboard warrior cheering.

Again though apologies for firing off at you earlier as realise that you weren't doing that nor getting excited by bodycounts as others had been.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Staffsknot

[Staffsknot]

1 hour ago, skinnylattej said:

I do not agree with the above.  IMV If Russia takes Ukraine, Russia will be faced with a long and difficult terrorist war as I do not believe the Ukrainians will give up.  It may turn out to be another Afghanistan, where both the Russians and later the US+allies failed to tame the country.  Others on this thread have suggested that the drain on resources would have a catastrophic effect on the morale of the military and public opinion in Russia, as well as the Russian economy.  It is not likely that the West will remove sanctions while there is a low level war in Ukraine.

Again, this is only my view, and I'm aware that I do not have the detailed understanding of others, but suppose the rate of attrition of Russian lives is high, and the situation moves towards the Ukrainians winning.  Putin has no political escape route, it is his war, he is the leader of Russia.  The oligarchs will be hurting from sanctions, the economy will be in a bad way, and the body bags will be numerous.  If Putin is replaced, it is probable that the replacement will be one of his henchmen, who will be faced with a choice; increase the war on the Ukraine, or capitulate.  The economic and human costs of the former will be high, and the political costs of the latter will be very high, and may lead to political instability within Russia.  The potential risks of a nuclear armed state with unstable government make me shudder.

Russia's may be aim to increase energy prices, but by what mechanism?  If Russia restricts exports of gas and oil, it will further damage it's economy.  Maybe China will take more Russian oil and gas, but China will scent weakness and drive a very hard bargain.  Similarly, the increase in grain prices will happen, the farmers in Ukraine have no diesel or fertilizer, and are unlikely to plant in fields in a combat zone.  UK grain prices are going up very steeply already.  The situation in North Africa will become critical over the next 12 months, as there will be little grain and the ports handling export are trashed.  We may see the 'Arab Spring 2.0'.

Sadly, whichever route is taken, there will be more loss of life and destruction of Ukraine.  But I can't see a swift end to the conflict.

Finally, following some extra-ordinary commentary up-thread, I make it abundantly clear that in my view Putin is a despotic crook surrounded by corrupt Russian mafia, who collectively has invaded another country and whose military has committed appalling acts of viciousness on the civilian population.  I stop short of using the term 'war crimes' as the subject of international law is outside my area of expertise.

This is a good summary and why taking all of Ukraine seems less feasible than leaving a West Ukraine and moving to Moldova. But the Russian war machine will need time to refit and re-equip which will likely take 18 months to a couple of years.

Bringing in Syrian and outside fighters is just a tactic to encourage Ukraine leadership to go for peace as these fighters lack the Russian history link + zero shits about Kyiv history or any kind of rules.

Russia can't sustain this beyond April and each week adds to the time before they could hit Moldova or Georgia + time for those to get outside aid.

[Bob8]

Thanks for the above posts.

While I do not see Putin in immediate danger, I wonder how this weakness will be seen in Belarus and other regions?

 

[NorthamptonBear]

3 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Yeah that's the fella. Absolute hats off to the people who've kept him and his family out of harm's way because there is no way in hell there haven't been multiple attempts over the years. 

Fascinating - Oxford Union - uploaded yesterday - discussing Russia/Ukraine and much more

 

[Flat Bear]

 

[satsuma]

I watched the video of the attack on those tanks, clearly it was one big balls Ukranian with a NLAW that sent the Russians running.  Not that I blame them, the tank crew would have been smashed in their tank and the others did the right thing by running as there would have been more NLAWs.  No surprise that PooTin is worried.  

Edited March 12, 2022 by satsuma

[Flat Bear]

27 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

This is a good summary and why taking all of Ukraine seems less feasible than leaving a West Ukraine and moving to Moldova. But the Russian war machine will need time to refit and re-equip which will likely take 18 months to a couple of years.

Bringing in Syrian and outside fighters is just a tactic to encourage Ukraine leadership to go for peace as these fighters lack the Russian history link + zero shits about Kyiv history or any kind of rules.

Russia can't sustain this beyond April and each week adds to the time before they could hit Moldova or Georgia + time for those to get outside aid.

Russia can't sustain this beyond April

I hear a lot of sources saying Russia can not sustain this war as it is at the moment more than a further 2 to 3 weeks which is very much what you are also saying.

It is likely Ukraine WILL last out this long albeit with a number of towns/cities taken so something has to give over the next few weeks. Desperate times need desperate measures for Putin.

[IMHAL]

10 minutes ago, NorthamptonBear said:

Fascinating - Oxford Union - uploaded yesterday - discussing Russia/Ukraine and much more

 

Very good insight into how Russia operates with regard to interfering in foreign affairs. Trump especially.....but not contained to that.

[Riedquat]

7 minutes ago, Flat Bear said:

Russia can't sustain this beyond April

I hear a lot of sources saying Russia can not sustain this war as it is at the moment more than a further 2 to 3 weeks which is very much what you are also saying.

It is likely Ukraine WILL last out this long albeit with a number of towns/cities taken so something has to give over the next few weeks. Desperate times need desperate measures for Putin.

Amateur guessing here, but retreat to the eastern parts of Ukraine and claim that that's all his was after all along? That'll be his face-saving "victory." Perhaps he'll hope that he's caused enough suffering by that point for Ukraine to more or less accept that (if Russia's concentrated there would there be anything much Ukraine could do about it anyway?)

[Flat Bear]

3 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Amateur guessing here, but retreat to the eastern parts of Ukraine and claim that that's all his was after all along? That'll be his face-saving "victory." Perhaps he'll hope that he's caused enough suffering by that point for Ukraine to more or less accept that (if Russia's concentrated there would there be anything much Ukraine could do about it anyway?)

Well we know Ukraine would not accept this nor would the west, in general, and he would be chased out of Ukraine as the Ukrainians sense blood. He/Russia are in a very precarious position.

I note that there are reports that towns to the west of Ukraine have been attacked? I thought this guy was a grand master but he is in fact a novice.

"Reparations" will be the word within a few weeks. Seized assets can be used but this will not be enough. Russia will be paying for this for decades and will no longer be thought of as a superpower.

[Staffsknot]

19 minutes ago, Flat Bear said:

Russia can't sustain this beyond April

I hear a lot of sources saying Russia can not sustain this war as it is at the moment more than a further 2 to 3 weeks which is very much what you are also saying.

It is likely Ukraine WILL last out this long albeit with a number of towns/cities taken so something has to give over the next few weeks. Desperate times need desperate measures for Putin.

Its why things are moving to Kyiv again.

I would go as far as end of April being the limitation but at a lower intensity than now. Sustaining this kind of thing will be extremely tough and if Kyiv is still not taken by end of March it brings a big dent to any plans on going any further West.

[Bob8]

21 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Amateur guessing here, but retreat to the eastern parts of Ukraine and claim that that's all his was after all along? That'll be his face-saving "victory." Perhaps he'll hope that he's caused enough suffering by that point for Ukraine to more or less accept that (if Russia's concentrated there would there be anything much Ukraine could do about it anyway?)

The Russian media are clear that his demands are the denazification of Ukraine and not its full occupation. That is rather useful. It does give a path for him to claim victory.