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Will Russia invade Ukraine and what happens if it escalates with NATO/US getting involved


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HOLA441
29 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

 

Guido Fawkes, the Putin/Johnson connection.

https://zelo-street.blogspot.com/2022/03/guido-fawkes-protests-too-much.html

He meets a man from the Russian Embassy who he thinks is a spy. They go for a burger - which is absolutely a normal response to meeting someone you think is a Russian spy …

The Russian, Sergey Nalobin, pumps Guido for information. And they become friends. Exactly what anyone would do confronted by an agent of Putin, isn't it? The Russian invites him to a drinks party at the Russian embassy and then the Russians start putting money into Paul Staines' business. Totally normal”.

Looking forward to all the pending treason trials. Unfortunately the death penalty for it in the UK was abolished in 1998.

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HOLA442
47 minutes ago, shlomo said:

I see what you saying if Putin commits murder and genocide then it is wrong, when this is done and dusted and the west commits murder and genocide then that is OK,

I thought you were a better man than that.

That either comes from a deliberately misleading attempt to paint a false equivalence, or very excessive over-simplicity ("well if there's a war it's murder and genocide", the occasional screw-up and deliberately flattening lots of civilian buildings is all the same and that sort of nonsense).

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HOLA443
2 minutes ago, shlomo said:

So China will be the victor of the Russia-Ukraine War, I cannot see under any circumstance Russia moving from the US Dollar to the Chinese Yuan, Unless the US bans Russia

So China becomes more powerful 

....another own goal

 

China are very much the obvious winners of this if they play their cards right. Still think China would prefer it to not happen at all (they want stability), but they'll get whatever opportunity they can.

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HOLA444
1 minute ago, Riedquat said:

That either comes from a deliberately misleading attempt to paint a false equivalence, or very excessive over-simplicity ("well if there's a war it's murder and genocide", the occasional screw-up and deliberately flattening lots of civilian buildings is all the same and that sort of nonsense).

Maybe he is a paid up agent of Luxemburg

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HOLA445
1 minute ago, Riedquat said:

China are very much the obvious winners of this if they play their cards right. Still think China would prefer it to not happen at all (they want stability), but they'll get whatever opportunity they can.

I think China is in shock, but they emerge the winner, they will buy Russia up on the Cheap

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HOLA446
4 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

You’re one of Putin’s patsies and a useful fool like @Arpeggio welcome to my exclusive blocked list of losers. 

As you well know, rollover was continually on the Brexit thread for years, wanting to remain in the EU.  He was on your side on that thread.  If he were a Russian agent would he not be arguing for Brexit?

Edited by kzb
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HOLA447
2 hours ago, shlomo said:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/ukraine-russia-war-armenia-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh-where-was-empathy/

Where was the outpouring of empathy when my country was at war?

As an Armenian, I feel our pain was ignored. And my trauma means I’m struggling to empathise as I should with Ukraine today

From empathy into heartlessness

As soon as I got the news, I put myself in the shoes of every Ukrainian. I really felt for them. I imagined young people in love, with big plans for the future or for their wedding day, who will not live to see them happen. It is heartbreaking.

But empathy was just the first reaction I had this morning. It was followed by something different: a pang of what I would describe as heartlessness. I suppose this is a product of trauma.

I remembered being in almost exactly the same situation in Armenia, but with a slight difference. The world was not supporting us. It was just watching our pain in silence.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m genuinely happy to see how the international community is supporting Ukraine, how people in different countries are protesting in the streets, how millions are adding the Ukrainian flag to their profiles on social media. But this unity and empathy feels so different from what I experienced in 2020.

Thousands of young people aged 18 to 20 died in Armenia and Azerbaijan barely two years ago. And I don’t recall much international solidarity happening then.

Please, spare me explanations about the differences between wars. War is war. It’s a tragedy. It means being able to smell death. It’s mourning a parent and a partner. It’s an evil that takes away your sleep and your laughter. It’s an invisible pain in your heart. Let’s not talk about geopolitics here.

What really shocks me is the hypocrisy. How can this be the same world, the same society, the same media? Where were they when people in another part of the world were fighting for 44 days during the pandemic?

Well you choose Russias side and voted against condemneding it at the UN vote. You vote for attacking Ukraine 

So .. FU Armenia.

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HOLA448
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HOLA449
16 minutes ago, kzb said:

As you well know, rollover was continually on the Brexit thread for years, wanting to remain in the EU.  He was on your side on that thread.  If he were a Russian agent would he not be arguing for Brexit?

They can't even get their "Putin's troll army - try them for treason" list right 🤣🤡

They said pop will eat pop. On forums, the angry will eat the angry.

Edited by FallingAwake
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HOLA4410
7 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/

 

Chinese analysis of situation.

Putin is fecked and China better chose a side soon. That side is the West.

 

 

If Russia fails the Russian oligarchs would ultimately be replaced/usurped by Western corporates coming in and bending Russia away from China's outlook.

At that point China would risk be even more encircled and ostracised than it is already.

China ultimately needs Russia onside and is joined by the hip.  

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HOLA4411
19 minutes ago, kzb said:

As you well know, rollover was continually on the Brexit thread for years, wanting to remain in the EU.  He was on your side on that thread.  If he were a Russian agent would he not be arguing for Brexit?

No not necessarily but interesting that all the same. From memory, mainly reposting articles not a lot of of actual argument.

As it happens, struggling  with debate on this thread too.

 

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HOLA4412
11 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/

 

Chinese analysis of situation.

Putin is fecked and China better chose a side soon. That side is the West.

 

 

I diagree with your assesment think like Lao Tzu after Russia is out of the way then the west will attack China so what cards does China have they can help Putin which is not something they want to do but it will give the west 2 targets rather than the China that they say started Covid 19, I think China has to from a strategic perspective have to help Russia 

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HOLA4413
3 minutes ago, Casual-observer said:

If Russia fails the Russian oligarchs would ultimately be replaced/usurped by Western corporates coming in and bending Russia away from China's outlook.

At that point China would risk be even more encircled and ostracised than it is already.

China ultimately needs Russia onside and is joined by the hip.  

Why Western ones and not Chinese ones?

China acting as a mediator could end up putting pressure on Russia to stop whilst still looking friendly to Russia, and winning some brownie points with the West too. That way China loses nothing and potentially has some significant gains.

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HOLA4414
1 minute ago, shlomo said:

I diagree with your assesment think like Lao Tzu after Russia is out of the way then the west will attack China so what cards does China have they can help Putin which is not something they want to do but it will give the west 2 targets rather than the China that they say started Covid 19, I think China has to from a strategic perspective have to help Russia 

Why on earth do you think the west will attack China?

From a military perspective, even ignoring the fact that China is also a nuclear power, it would be a bigger blunder than Russia attacking Ukraine was.

If you mean non-militarily then the West's too dependent upon China to really put any pressure there.

Edited by Riedquat
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HOLA4415
5 minutes ago, Casual-observer said:

If Russia fails the Russian oligarchs would ultimately be replaced/usurped by Western corporates coming in and bending Russia away from China's outlook.

At that point China would risk be even more encircled and ostracised than it is already.

China ultimately needs Russia onside and is joined by the hip.  

My assesment also, they think Putin is a fool, think of the relationship between Hitler and Mussolini

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HOLA4416
57 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

China are very much the obvious winners of this if they play their cards right. Still think China would prefer it to not happen at all (they want stability), but they'll get whatever opportunity they can.

It is frequently argued, but helping Russia screw up the world does not look like a trajectory China will want to spend much time on.

Id imagine they might have been happier with a rolling over of Ukraine in a day or two and minimal reaction from the RoW.

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HOLA4417
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HOLA4418
2 minutes ago, pig said:

It is frequently argued, but helping Russia screw up the world does not look like a trajectory China will want to spend much time on.

Id imagine they might have been happier with a rolling over of Ukraine in a day or two and minimal reaction from the RoW.

Yes, that makes sense. A quick Russian victory would mean that China could get away with some very vague rumblings and then go on as business as normal. Clearly China doesn't want to be publically on the side that it has the most ideological difference with and who's always criticising its behaviour.

Edited by Riedquat
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HOLA4419
4 minutes ago, pig said:

No not necessarily but interesting that all the same. From memory, mainly reposting articles not a lot of of actual argument.

As it happens, struggling  with debate on this thread too.

 

So let me think, what was his role there as a Russian agent?   Make peoples' heads explode with confusion?

If Russian agents can be Remain supporters but really there to make peoples' heads explode, I would say both you and Monsieur Copper Crutch fit the bill for that role much better than rollover.

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HOLA4420
1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

 

Guido Fawkes, the Putin/Johnson connection.

https://zelo-street.blogspot.com/2022/03/guido-fawkes-protests-too-much.html

He meets a man from the Russian Embassy who he thinks is a spy. They go for a burger - which is absolutely a normal response to meeting someone you think is a Russian spy …

The Russian, Sergey Nalobin, pumps Guido for information. And they become friends. Exactly what anyone would do confronted by an agent of Putin, isn't it? The Russian invites him to a drinks party at the Russian embassy and then the Russians start putting money into Paul Staines' business. Totally normal”.

I nearly fell off my chair lol

On here when posters link to GF you know it’s not worth engaging with.

Quite a mess starting to unravel there sucking in all and sundry.

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HOLA4421
1 hour ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

I didn’t say it was okay I said start a new thread. But I know that you are being intentionally disingenuous so likely won’t. 

I start lots of threads I just pointed something out its not worthy  of a new thread but relevant from the context of that all of the brown, black, yellow countries are turning against europe for its unable to hide two faced behiour 

What is more important Ukraine or losing black, brown and yellow countries forever?

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HOLA4422

From the BBC:

 

Quote

 

“I think that we’ll achieve some results literally in a matter of days,” Mykhailo Podolyak, a Ukrainian negotiator and adviser to President Volodymir Zelensky, said.

He cautioned, however, that Ukraine would not “concede in principle on any positions”.

“Russia now understands this. Russia is already beginning to talk constructively,” he added.

From Russia, Leonid Slutsky was quoted as saying: “According to my personal expectations, this progress may grow in the coming days into a joint position of both delegations, into documents for signing.”

 

Encouraging?

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HOLA4423
18 minutes ago, FallingAwake said:

They can't even get their "Putin's troll army - try them for treason" list right 🤣🤡

They said pop will eat pop. On forums, the angry will eat the angry.

The weird thing is, they don't even seem to remember.  That is very suspicious.

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HOLA4424
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HOLA4425
9 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Why Western ones and not Chinese ones?

China acting as a mediator could end up putting pressure on Russia to stop whilst still looking friendly to Russia, and winning some brownie points with the West too. That way China loses nothing and potentially has some significant gains.

They'd be out muscled, doesn't mean they couldn't compete in some areas but collapsing Russia would ultimately veer a key ally within their sphere away from them.

Allowing Putin to fall and opening up Russia to Western leanings is not remotely in China's long term interests. 

It would be a catastrophic failure for China whom is penned in on it's pacific front and now risks a key ally to the west being usurped  

 

 

Edited by Casual-observer
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