Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[zugzwang]

And what's with all this Brexiteer hysteria about illiberal, intrusive and authoritarian govt?

Singapore-on-Thames is what you mooks voted for, right?

[Grayphil]

1 hour ago, MARTINX9 said:

In reality none of this will work anyway in the real world - particularly when the first night you open will be a warm Saturday evening in July.

They should have opened pubs on a Monday morning and then given them a few days to test these systems out while it was relatively quiet - not start on a Saturday. The whole concept of table ordering and giving contact details will be lucky to last an hour once the crowds descend on pubs in big cities.

All I can say is that the police are going to be very very busy next Saturday night monitoring the pubs and then the streets as the drunks head home!

I think you have a very good point there, its almost as if the government want the prefect storm.. 

Is it cummings a master plan to get everyone to forget about him and the governments possible failings. 

Look how venomous the press are about the beaches, the raves, etc etc.. 

I'm the biggest lockdown skeptic, but if I can see its illogical to open up so freely and so willingly. There is a reason for it. 

And its to stop people blaming the government, about mishandling, but throw it back on the public. Pretty smart really. 

[Saving For a Space Ship]

"Scientists in Spain have found traces of Covid-19 in water samples in Barcelona from March 12, 2019, several months before China had cases. 

This is more evidence suggesting the coronavirus did not originate in China "

https://www.elmundo.es/ciencia-y-salud/ciencia/2020/06/26/5ef5e37321efa00c2c8b45b9.html

 

 

Edited June 27, 2020 by Saving For a Space Ship

[Kosmin]

2 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

"Scientists in Spain have found traces of Covid-19 in water samples in Barcelona from March 12, 2019, several months before China had cases. 

This is more evidence suggesting the coronavirus did not originate in China "

Is this a joke?

If it was in Spain in March, why didn't it spread widely in Spain and the rest of Europe last year? Did Spain eradicate it last year without even trying? Why did it spread quickly in Wuhan and why did it spread quickly once it returned to Europe this year?

[yodigo]

20 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Is this a joke?

If it was in Spain in March, why didn't it spread widely in Spain and the rest of Europe last year? Did Spain eradicate it last year without even trying? Why did it spread quickly in Wuhan and why did it spread quickly once it returned to Europe this year?

Edited June 27, 2020 by yodigo

[Timm]

5 hours ago, Riedquat said:

Probably noise to be honest, particularly when they figures (deaths especially) seem to have got depressingly flat, so it doesn't take much to nudge the rolling average one way or the other. Flat is a cause for concern of course.

It gets really hard to draw meaningful conclusions from such data. Many of the tests are for the purposes of diagnosing patients rather than estimating the overall spread of the virus, so fewer tests will be done if there are fewer suspected cases, which might be an indication of fewer overall cases. But I wouldn't want to rely on that assumption.

That was a very gentle rebuttal!

1. Noise: Yes, it is.      2. It gets really hard to draw meaningful conclusions from such data: Yes, it does.

And of course, today's data lends no support whatsoever to my theory hypothesis thesis speculation.

But...

[Arpeggio]

4 hours ago, Riedquat said:

How would they do that? They're not going to be able to filter out different gases.

Here you go. Maybe it's partly due to CO2 not expelling as much as it normally would on outward breaths due to mask.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUFbBm0kiUQ

Machine go BEEP BOOP!.......BEEP BOOP!..........BEEP BOOP...........BEEP BOOP!.......BEEP BOOP!..........BEEP BOOP! I'm just being silly there. It's not you it's me.

 

5 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Who is this they?

We have several friends who were working as consultants in ICUs during the pandemic, they seemed pretty depressed at the numbers of patients they were losing (one told me on VE day that they were using steroid treatment).

Should I assume this was just cover for their evil intent, although I do wonder how tptb managed the worldwide recruitment of all these murderous doctors.

They, is the people in the NY hospital where the nurse works. On the video you'll see that the orders come from higher up. They get $39k for putting patient on ventilator.

I can't speak for your friends. It sounds like they among those with good intent, but what's in that video is what's in that video. I went to some medical conferences (different field) and spoke a bit as an ex patient with life and death as my motivation to educate myself as opposed to a paycheck. Doctors keenly listened to me had to be careful not let it get to my head. I know from experience there are kind hearted people in healthcare who are being mislead, sorry if that comes across patronizing.

 

5 hours ago, The Spaniard said:

There are a couple of disturbing related articles this week on off-guardian.org:

https://off-guardian.org/2020/06/24/covid-19-has-turned-public-health-into-a-patient-killing-experiment/

https://off-guardian.org/2020/06/25/cash4covid-how-hospitals-are-making-money-off-the-coronavirus/

If this were a technocratic power grab, they would want as many deaths as possible to fulfill justifications.

......so it must be some other reason. Can't think what. Maybe it's just a co-incidence and we should all just watch the BBC, take our antidepressants, take out massive mortgages, keep our heads down, keep working, don't ask questions, trust professor Niel Ferguson at al. take our non placebo controlled vaccines and be tracked and traced.

"Choose life"

 

3 hours ago, Grayphil said:

Yes, very good idea. Would be very interesting. 

Sweden is reporting that it is down to normal time of year death figures.

It is, and pretty darn obvious isn't it though really my fellow minded. If a disease is so bad you'd want to convince people by comparing it to other causes of death over the same period....it's as though, according to mainstream media, only COVID19 exists. No articles about people / celebs / others of note, dying from anything else, as you would normally expect to see now and then, as has been the case since the dawn of newspapers, be that 1970, 2018 or any other year.

Sweden sounds interesting. Could you point me in the direction of where you read that please? I'd like to see.

Edited June 27, 2020 by Arpeggio

[Kosmin]

23 minutes ago, yodigo said:

 

Edited?

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

3 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

"Scientists in Spain have found traces of Covid-19 in water samples in Barcelona from March 12, 2019, several months before China had cases. 

This is more evidence suggesting the coronavirus did not originate in China "

https://www.elmundo.es/ciencia-y-salud/ciencia/2020/06/26/5ef5e37321efa00c2c8b45b9.html

 

 

Nice, I was in Barcelona a few weeks after that, going to the Barcelona vs Eibar match with a 66k crowd!!!

So I've almost certainly had Covid, as has the family, but not sure when unless it was 3 months before then?

 

[MARTINX9]

5 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

"Scientists in Spain have found traces of Covid-19 in water samples in Barcelona from March 12, 2019, several months before China had cases. 

This is more evidence suggesting the coronavirus did not originate in China "

https://www.elmundo.es/ciencia-y-salud/ciencia/2020/06/26/5ef5e37321efa00c2c8b45b9.html

 

 

Does that mean we can call it the Spanish flu - or the Catalan one anyway. The Spanish got the blame for the 1918-20 pandemic and it didn't even start there.

[Peter Hun]

14 hours ago, Riedquat said:

How would they do that? They're not going to be able to filter out different gases.

You might want to avoid getting into a discussion with the loon, for the sake of your own sanity.

[Peter Hun]

Quote

As the months tick by since the start of the coronavirus pandemic and we learn more about covid-19, it is becoming increasingly evident that even mild cases can have distressing and long-lasting effects. “There’s clearly something going on here. It is not their imagination or hypochondria. It doesn’t even seem to be linked to how severely they had the disease, as far as I can see,” says Danny Altmann, an immunologist at Imperial College London. All this means we need to rethink how we diagnose and treat covid-19. The long list of symptoms also seems to suggest there might even be several subtypes of the disease, which could help us predict which cases will become serious.

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24632881-400-why-strange-and-debilitating-coronavirus-symptoms-can-last-for-months/#ixzz6QeooIhu8

 

 

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

"Na, it's hyped and not that bad, just a strong flu!"

I'm still running into these people, some are very well educated ?.

[MARTINX9]

20 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

"Na, it's hyped and not that bad, just a strong flu!"

I'm still running into these people, some are very well educated ?.

Of course for many/most people it will be - or they have no symptoms at all. If of course you are one of the unlucky few - most likely if you are male, older, obese, have underlying conditions, BAME with possible Vitamin D deficiency etc - then it is more likely to kill you or leave you with long term damage. So its a bit of a lottery.

Noting that as illustrations tall slim Chris Whitty and Matt Hancock caught the virus and mild symptoms overweight Boris ended up needing oxygen and in ICU.

Also a debate to be had about what the long term impact of masks and social distancing may have on our immunity systems and our future ability to fight viruses - perhaps even a future even more deadly coronavirus. Its becoming more evident there isn't one COVID19 but potentially multiple mutations.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/27/lockdown-social-distancing-could-make-immune-system-weaker-says/

Edited June 28, 2020 by MARTINX9

[Peter Hun]

1 hour ago, MARTINX9 said:

Of course for many/most people it will be - or they have no symptoms at all. If of course you are one of the unlucky few - most likely if you are male, older, obese, have underlying conditions, BAME with possible Vitamin D deficiency etc - then it is more likely to kill you or leave you with long term damage. So its a bit of a lottery.

Yes, older people die.

However, its now becoming understood that the young get brain damage.

Quote

Covid-19 linked to brain conditions

Key research into Covid-19’s impact on the nervous system shows stroke is the most commonly reported neurological complication affecting patients hospitalised by the virus.

A study – the first in the UK – also discovered that the brain function of many younger patients had been altered, leading to problems with their mental state, such as confusion or abnormal behaviour.

The findings provide vital insights that will inform future research into the effect of Covid-19 on the brain.

A study – the first in the UK – also discovered that the brain function of many younger patients had been altered, leading to problems with their mental state, such as confusion or abnormal behaviour.

The findings provide vital insights that will inform future research into the effect of Covid-19 on the brain.

Half of those experiencing an altered mental state were under 60.

 

[MARTINX9]

2 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Yes, older people die.

However, its now becoming understood that the young get brain damage.

 

Half of people with brain altering conditions were under 60 - but can we be clear how many people we are taking about as that could be 1,000 people out 2,000 or 5 out of 10 or 50,000 out of 100,000?  It doesn't say!

Life is about risks and balancing those out. If you are living mortgage free in a detached house in the country on a fixed guaranteed income you may have a different view from someone who needs to do 3 jobs in a city just to pay for a shared room in a house.

Since March nearly 250,000 people will have died in the UK from non COVID-19 related causes - we hear very little about them and their daily deaths are never announced!

[Peter Hun]

Quote

It's common for SARS type viruses to cause such damage and pool around the brain stem, so this was actually predicted and this is just verifying it. There's lots of signs of neurological damage. You don't need to wait for any study, just look at the symptoms: loss of smell and taste, unable to breathe normally, confusion, dizziness, Guillain-Barre syndrome, Kawasaki's disease, again and again these are pointing to neurological issues.

Whilst an altered mental state was being reported by some clinicians, we were surprised to identify quite so many cases, particularly in younger patients, and by the breadth of clinical syndromes ranging from brain inflammation – or encephalitis – through to psychosis and catatonia.
Dr Benedict Michael, University of Liverpool

[Peter Hun]

Just now, MARTINX9 said:

but can we be clear how many people we are taking about as that could be 1,000 people out 2,000 or 5 out of 10 or 50,000 out of 100,000?  It doesn't say!

No it doesn't say. Brain impairment is not connected to severity, so the effect on people who haven't been near a hospital is unquantified.

The Kings College app identifies 200K out of 4million who were still reporting symptoms.

[Peter Hun]

Quote

During the early stages of the outbreak, I came down with mild Covid-19-like symptoms. Though I was slightly worried this would hinder my ability to contribute to the immediate professional battle against this virus, I also anticipated I would be back in business within a week or two. How wrong I was – I became what we now call a Covid-19 “long-hauler” – a patient with initially mild symptoms of likely Covid-19, who would go on to experience a range of sometimes severe symptoms for a prolonged period of time.

The Covid Symptom Study, undertaken by King’s College London, has revealed that 10% of all Covid-19 patients report symptoms for at least three weeks. Surprisingly, people in this so-called Covid tail are on average younger,. Most report having been previously healthy, and show relatively mild symptoms in the initial phase of illness. But they continue to experience symptoms such as fatigue, headache, cough, shortness of breath, chest pain, increased heart rates and gastrointestinal and neurological symptoms for weeks or even months following the initial symptoms; often these symptoms might come and go repeatedly.

Though physically I still struggle with lung problems, as a doctor and a scientist I struggle mostly with the lack of knowledge about this condition. We currently have no understanding at all of the biological mechanisms causing these prolonged symptoms. Theoretically, they may be the result of ongoing or resurgent viral replication – which would be important to know since this would imply prolonged infectiousness as well. Perhaps, however, as observed in more severe cases of coronavirus, the virus may trigger an aberrant immune response, resulting in ongoing inflammation throughout the body, which may last far beyond clearance of the virus. A third alternative, as observed commonly following bacterial pneumonia, is that the coronavirus causes more extensive damage of lungs, heart and other organ systems than suggested by the initial symptoms, which simply requires more time to recover.

Without this knowledge, we don’t know if long-haulers are infectious for prolonged periods, or whether they are at risk of experiencing severe complications, and certainly not whether treatment might reduce the duration of their problems. Left unattended, these patients may even develop irreversible damage leading to chronic illnesses.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/28/coronavirus-long-haulers-infectious-disease-testing

[kzb]

On ‎26‎/‎06‎/‎2020 at 20:39, Arpeggio said:

The study looks at the genes of people who were hospitalized. The only mention of healthy people is the part that says "The panels included 396 healthy volunteers" from a group that had mild or no Covid-19 symptoms.

You seem to be conflating there being genetic susceptibility as something that trumps being healthy. It doesn't.

Healthy people will also have genetic susceptibility, which can be activated by becoming unhealthy. Take inadequate sleep for example https://www.pnas.org/content/110/12/E1132.abstract

"We show that one wk of insufficient sleep alters gene expression in human blood cells, reduces the amplitude of circadian rhythms in gene expression, and intensifies the effects of subsequent acute total sleep loss on gene expression."

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/long-term-endurance-exercise-alter-genes-metabolic-health/ (I don't do this.....but still same point).

If a person is genetically susceptible they should exercise and be healthy. Health trumps genes, you are not helpless my friend, get your spandex on and work that booty (spandex not required).

We don't know if health trumps genes.  I am not arguing that being fit is not some kind of advantage, very likely it is.

One thing we do know is that young and fit people have died.  It is uncommon but it happens.

Another thing we know is that certain ethnicities are at enhanced risk of dying, even when other factors are corrected for.

How do we explain how some young and fit people can die, whilst their peers, often of poorer health status, shrug it off?  And why are some races more prone to die than others, even when other factors are corrected for?

[Arpeggio]

2 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

Yes, older people die.

However, its now becoming understood that the young get brain damage.

Key research into Covid-19’s impact on the nervous system shows stroke is the most commonly reported neurological complication affecting patients hospitalised by the virus.

In 2015 the number of people having a stroke in their 40s and 50s had risen dramatically

"The number of people in their 40s and 50s having strokes has rocketed, with obesity and sedentary lifestyles blamed for the rise. New NHS figures show that since 2000, the number of men aged 40 to 54 in England hospitalised after stroke has grown by 46%, and among women, 30%."

It goes without saying that if any of these people got COVID19, this could exacerbate the likely hood of a stroke.

There has also been an increase in dementia among people in their 40s, as of being reported in 2015

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3186583/Rise-patients-40s-suffering-dementia-Researchers-warn-silent-epidemic-early-onset-disease.htm

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/07/modern-life-dementia-40s-neurological-disease

Edited June 28, 2020 by Arpeggio

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

21 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

"Scientists in Spain have found traces of Covid-19 in water samples in Barcelona from March 12, 2019, several months before China had cases. 

This is more evidence suggesting the coronavirus did not originate in China "

https://www.elmundo.es/ciencia-y-salud/ciencia/2020/06/26/5ef5e37321efa00c2c8b45b9.html

 

 

Here is the actual paper: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20129627v1.full.pdf

 

 

[Arpeggio]

33 minutes ago, kzb said:

We don't know if health trumps genes.  I am not arguing that being fit is not some kind of advantage, very likely it is.

One thing we do know is that young and fit people have died.  It is uncommon but it happens.

Another thing we know is that certain ethnicities are at enhanced risk of dying, even when other factors are corrected for.

As I already said, the only mention of healthy people in the study you brought up is the part that says "The panels included 396 healthy volunteers" from a group that had mild or no Covid-19 symptoms.

I also said that health alters gene expression, therefore being healthy lowers the effect of unfavorable genes. In that sense it determines effect of genetic susceptibility, whether you see it as trumping it or not.

 

33 minutes ago, kzb said:

How do we explain how some young and fit people can die, whilst their peers, often of poorer health status, shrug it off?  And why are some races more prone to die than others, even when other factors are corrected for?

Too many gym fools on steroids Steroids abuse is massive epidemic. That Zyzz idiot died age 29 of heart attack, give him COVID19 before that and it may have finished him off earlier. There is also over exercise with no recovery time, e.g. too much long distance running is bad for your health, very bad. Do 9 days with no recovery time (apart from sleep at night) and you will feel like you have flu.

https://www.active.com/health/articles/why-too-much-running-is-bad-for-your-health

"people who work out too hard for too long may be less healthy than sedentary people, and are more likely to die than moderate exercisers, according to an editorial recently published in the British journal Heart."

I'm not saying the young cases (which seem to be anecdotal and not in any notable number) all had extenuating factors necessarily. What I'm saying is that underlying health conditions as they are commonly known, might not be the only issue.

Edited June 28, 2020 by Arpeggio

[Grayphil]

57 minutes ago, kzb said:

We don't know if health trumps genes.  I am not arguing that being fit is not some kind of advantage, very likely it is.

One thing we do know is that young and fit people have died.  It is uncommon but it happens.

Another thing we know is that certain ethnicities are at enhanced risk of dying, even when other factors are corrected for.

How do we explain how some young and fit people can die, whilst their peers, often of poorer health status, shrug it off?  And why are some races more prone to die than others, even when other factors are corrected for?

I know what you are getting at here, I did read those links the other day, it's certainly interesting. I don't think health does beat genes to be honest.

Its the whole thing. Where some people can drink a bottle of whisky and 40 cigs a day and live until 100, because their genes allow it. 

Upthread, it was also shown that blood type also heavily influences severity of symptoms. Its truly multi faceted, not just to mention the near 70~30 ratio just for being a bloke. 

[Grayphil]

30 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

As I already said, the only mention of healthy people in the study you brought up is the part that says "The panels included 396 healthy volunteers" from a group that had mild or no Covid-19 symptoms.

I also said that health alters gene expression, therefore being healthy lowers the effect of unfavorable genes. In that sense it determines effect of genetic susceptibility, whether you see it as trumping it or not.

 

Too many gym fools on steroids Steroids abuse is massive epidemic. That Zyzz idiot died age 29 of heart attack, give him COVID19 before that and it may have finished him off earlier. There is also over exercise with no recovery time, e.g. too much long distance running is bad for your health, very bad. Do 9 days with no recovery time (apart from sleep at night) and you will feel like you have flu.

https://www.active.com/health/articles/why-too-much-running-is-bad-for-your-health

"people who work out too hard for too long may be less healthy than sedentary people, and are more likely to die than moderate exercisers, according to an editorial recently published in the British journal Heart."

I'm not saying the young cases (which seem to be anecdotal and not in any notable number) all had extenuating factors necessarily. What I'm saying is that underlying health conditions as they are commonly known, might not be the only issue.

Ahh u know u may have a point, I've dabbled a lot with steroids, and I've seen how risky they can be.

When young people use them incorrectly, and just for a small amounts of time, it can have massive health consequences, massively raised blood pressure etc, a lot of steroids signal for massive amounts of extra red blood cells to be made. This helps with endurance, but it's also recommended to donate blood, or bleed yourself at least once a week. 

If some of these supposed fitness freaks were taking steroids, as many of the young do, and got Covid, the extra strain on the system could have overwhelmed them. It's hard to prove of course, cos most people pretend to be natural, but many athletes aren't, they just know how to beat the tests. 

Hadn't thought of that before as much, but It does make some sense..