Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Confusion of VIs]

36 minutes ago, captainb said:

I don't actually know. Just been stated as globalism bad. What's bad about it? What's the solution? That's the issue. Its a common meaningless statement. 

Just stating vaccine nationalism "proves" globalisation is wrong is nonsensical. The only reason we are in a position where vaccine nationalism can exist is due to globalisation as the vaccines are a product of it. 

 

Without globalisation we wouldn't have had any vaccines to argue over for another decade or two. The research and design work is 100% dependent on access to advanced computing equipment not made in the UK.  

[captainb]

17 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

And look what's happening as a result of that... As time moves on, and if it's required, a shift to a greater number of more localised plants would be the way to go. In some places, particularly the smaller countries, yes, not down to individual countries, but remember - it's not one extreme or the other.

If AZ hadn't worked then another one likely would've. Hopefully it wouldn't be one that went for the global, centralised production approach but one where we could start up a plant here.

Do you not see the absurdity of people blaming "globalisation" for potentially struggling to get doses, of a colloberation of German and US companies IP, funded by the US and European governments, trialed in South Africa, Brazil, UK, USA and Turkey and produced using a UK and French companies IP for key ingredients.. 

The whole thing doesn't exist without globalisation. 

You can start to try and set up a UK factory for Pfizer, they have to agree first and the lead time is 6 months plus. End product cost? Who knows.. The Belgium factory was built to provide rest of world other than USA. The relevative scales are vastly different. 

As previously stated the efficency difference is vast between the two models. It's not just one that gss gone for a globalised model. They all have to varying degrees. 

[kzb]

1 hour ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

You're getting confused between where the legal entity of a company is based, and where it actually manufacturers.

Don't bother looking at corporate legal entity structures, they are largely unfathomable and are set up for a variety of purposes.

It is perfectly possible and totally normal to have your registered office in Scunthorpe and your production in Oxford.

When you say "actually produced" what do you mean. Do you mean the last place of significant manufacture, the place of most significant manufacture etc etc etc ?

Yes it's a labyrinthine world in these corporations.  Just imagine if we had a monolithic state organisation undertaking all aspects of vaccine production.

On the last question, the leaflet states "The Manufacturer" to be MedImmune Ltd, Speke, Liverpool.  That's all it says, but I assume that means they are ultimately responsible for putting it together using at least some outsourced components.

[kzb]

1 hour ago, captainb said:

Okay. For reference they are all manufactured at sites under license not owned by the pharma company, whether that's Pfizer, AZ, modena etc. 

Same for nearly all drugs. And most technology.. Apple iPhones etc etc. 

The skillset to research and design is different to actual manufacturing. Which is why often the two are seperate across all industries. 

Yeah I guess they are limiting their liability etc etc.

[Riedquat]

12 minutes ago, captainb said:

Do you not see the absurdity of people blaming "globalisation" for potentially struggling to get doses, of a colloberation of German and US companies IP, funded by the US and European governments, trialed in South Africa, Brazil, UK, USA and Turkey and produced using a UK and French companies IP for key ingredients.. 

The whole thing doesn't exist without globalisation. 

You can start to try and set up a UK factory for Pfizer, they have to agree first and the lead time is 6 months plus. End product cost? Who knows.. The Belgium factory was built to provide rest of world other than USA. The relevative scales are vastly different. 

As previously stated the efficency difference is vast between the two models. It's not just one that gss gone for a globalised model. They all have to varying degrees. 

Can you not see the absurdity of defending globalisation when your problems with setting up a UK factory for Pfizer illustrate them very neatly? The "Produce it centrally and distribute" model inevitably means the rest of the world becomes very dependent on where it's being produced - at their mercy. All eggs in one basket, and when things don't work out perfectly just look what happens.

Take another example - the old saying of "give a man a fish and you'll feed him for a day, teach him to fish and you'll feed him for the rest of his life."

Edited March 23, 2021 by Riedquat

[captainb]

1 minute ago, Riedquat said:

Can you not see the absurdity of defending globalisation when your problems with setting up a UK factory for Pfizer illustrate them very neatly? The "Produce it centrally and distribute" model inevitably means the rest of the world becomes very dependent on where it's being produced - at their mercy. All eggs in one basket, and when things don't work out perfectly just look what happens.

That's the option that gets us to where we are now. With 9m doses in the UK of the Pfizer vaccine in people's arms and protecting them. 

Rather than having a global network of semi finished factories producing nothing. Assuming the German and US company would be happy to allow their IP to be distributed across that number of sites etc etc

[Bruce Banner]

28 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

 

Maybe they are leaving a trail of doughnuts into the vaccine tent. 

Clever targeting of the most at risk groups. 

All I get is letters and weird text messages. 

[zugzwang]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Have you any idea what a "nuclear submarine data analyst" does. Maybe you just have to be able to count up to 4, to make sure we haven't lost one. 

I pity the poor sods who has to read through the 1,200 pages of "evidence"

I suspect he's taken a deep dive into the data.

[Riedquat]

15 minutes ago, captainb said:

That's the option that gets us to where we are now. With 9m doses in the UK of the Pfizer vaccine in people's arms and protecting them. 

Rather than having a global network of semi finished factories producing nothing. Assuming the German and US company would be happy to allow their IP to be distributed across that number of sites etc etc

What we've got now are several factories around the world producing the AZ vaccine, without IP barriers. So you could argue globalisation of information and localisation of production is good.

[captainb]

5 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

What we've got now are several factories around the world producing the AZ vaccine, without IP barriers. So you could argue globalisation of information and localisation of production is good.

You could. Although the vast majority of the doses are still coming out of one factory in India. Even the UK is getting those. 

Pfizer and modena is a new process. Its never been done at anything like this scale before. Hence a few mega factories is the more realistic route than asking a whole load of companies to produce something they have never done before and you haven't either. 

IP is a weird one with that as well. Given the US operation warp speed funding for it, I'm surprised the US hasn't demanded a chunk of the IP. 

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

https://www.bbc.com/news/56483766

Great article. Some highlights :

The UK has ordered 100 million doses. Almost all will come from within the UK, but 10 million doses are being made by the Serum Institute in India. Half of these have already been received, with half held up by delays.

AstraZeneca confirmed that the UK has not received any vaccines or components from the EU - apart from one "tiny" batch from the Leiden plant.

AstraZeneca said its agreement with the EU allowed the option of supplying Europe from UK sites, but only once the UK had sufficient supplies.

Is the EU running out of AstraZeneca doses?

No - in fact, EU countries have been reporting hundreds of thousands of unused doses because of a drop in public confidence in the jab.

[Ah-so]

5 hours ago, nightowl said:

To be fair, I don't think many here are covid deniers. 

People just see other things going on alongside covid and are concerned. Also some us if like to get picture of covid relative to other conditions or how it compares historically which isn't denial...more getting a 10,000ft view of it or simply perspective.

Agree - it was a reply to a specific poster who is a COVID denier (when it suits him). Most here recognise that there is a disease that causes fatalities and that there is a cost/benefit to precautions and it is a spectrum that we need to decide on. We will probably only learn the truth in retrospect.

Although saying that, there is another poster who clearly believes that the deaths are in themselves a benefit, not a cost, because it clears out the elderly and weak from society, but he has a very different perspective.

[captainb]

2 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/56483766

Great article. Some highlights :

The UK has ordered 100 million doses. Almost all will come from within the UK, but 10 million doses are being made by the Serum Institute in India. Half of these have already been received, with half held up by delays.

AstraZeneca confirmed that the UK has not received any vaccines or components from the EU - apart from one "tiny" batch from the Leiden plant.

AstraZeneca said its agreement with the EU allowed the option of supplying Europe from UK sites, but only once the UK had sufficient supplies.

Is the EU running out of AstraZeneca doses?

No - in fact, EU countries have been reporting hundreds of thousands of unused doses because of a drop in public confidence in the jab.

France and Germany haven't used 50% of the AZ doses they have been allocated. 

Its an silly argument for the EU to take. Also they are due a whole load more Pfizer and moderna vaccines from April onwards which they will actually use.

Hoping it is what it looks like and a load of smoke and politics. Make a lot of smoke please your electorate that you are tough... Then hey its April here's a Pfizer vaccine pierre you never wanted that az one anyway. 

[The Spaniard]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Have you any idea what a "nuclear submarine data analyst" does. Maybe you just have to be able to count up to 4, to make sure we haven't lost one. 

https://jump.work/jobpost/117839/view

[Data Dave]

James Bond could fight COVID - the man has never lost a scrap, hes by now deflected 1000's of live rounds [no one can shoot the bloke] hes our best chance.

When hes finished that [or during - he can multitask] he could smooth things over with the ECB, Id put money on Christine Lagarde having an eye for Mr Bond.

Best use of tax payers money. Ever. 

[doomed]

12 minutes ago, Data Dave said:

James Bond could fight COVID - the man has never lost a scrap, hes by now deflected 1000's of live rounds [no one can shoot the bloke] hes our best chance.

When hes finished that [or during - he can multitask] he could smooth things over with the ECB, Id put money on Christine Lagarde having an eye for Mr Bond.

Best use of tax payers money. Ever. 

That would actually make more sense than our current approach.

[Confusion of VIs]

 

28 minutes ago, The Spaniard said:

https://jump.work/jobpost/117839/view

Looks like my guess was about right 😁 

Last month I was interviewing for 2 Data Analyst posts at Circa £80k and still got more than a fair share of numpties applying. God knows what I would have got at £25k.

  

[The Spaniard]

10 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

 

Looks like my guess was about right 😁 

Last month I was interviewing for 2 Data Analyst posts at Circa £80k and still got more than a fair share of numpties applying. God knows what I would have got at £25k. 

Perhaps we should notify the Admiralty of their potentially dangerous policy of recruiting sub-numpties?

 

Edited March 23, 2021 by The Spaniard
irresistible pun

[Data Dave]

32 minutes ago, doomed said:

That would actually make more sense than our current approach.

With enough likes, I could get him on a zoom chat and atleast pose the question to him.  Although hes old 'skool' bet hes a skype man...

[Riedquat]

1 hour ago, captainb said:

You could. Although the vast majority of the doses are still coming out of one factory in India. Even the UK is getting those. 

Pfizer and modena is a new process. Its never been done at anything like this scale before. Hence a few mega factories is the more realistic route than asking a whole load of companies to produce something they have never done before and you haven't either. 

IP is a weird one with that as well. Given the US operation warp speed funding for it, I'm surprised the US hasn't demanded a chunk of the IP. 

India is producing a lot, the aim seems to move on from that to get a lot more places producing a lot. You'll inevitably have a limited number of places initially, but then move on to much more distributed, local production. The IP status of the AZ vaccine that permits just that is one of its major plus points (the others being the low cost and ease of storage).

[slawek]

43 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/56483766

Great article. Some highlights :

The UK has ordered 100 million doses. Almost all will come from within the UK, but 10 million doses are being made by the Serum Institute in India. Half of these have already been received, with half held up by delays.

AstraZeneca confirmed that the UK has not received any vaccines or components from the EU - apart from one "tiny" batch from the Leiden plant.

AstraZeneca said its agreement with the EU allowed the option of supplying Europe from UK sites, but only once the UK had sufficient supplies.

Is the EU running out of AstraZeneca doses?

No - in fact, EU countries have been reporting hundreds of thousands of unused doses because of a drop in public confidence in the jab.

There is nothing in the EU/AZ contract about that. There is a clause, in which AZ guarantees that there is no other contract that could conflict with the EU/AZ contract. 

The UK/AZ  contract doesn't contain any such clause either. If a "UK first" clause exists it must be in other contract, UK/Oxford or Oxford/AZ.

[Drat]

1 hour ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/56483766

Great article. Some highlights :

The UK has ordered 100 million doses. Almost all will come from within the UK, but 10 million doses are being made by the Serum Institute in India. Half of these have already been received, with half held up by delays.

AstraZeneca confirmed that the UK has not received any vaccines or components from the EU - apart from one "tiny" batch from the Leiden plant.

AstraZeneca said its agreement with the EU allowed the option of supplying Europe from UK sites, but only once the UK had sufficient supplies.

Is the EU running out of AstraZeneca doses?

No - in fact, EU countries have been reporting hundreds of thousands of unused doses because of a drop in public confidence in the jab.

Also note that the UK has received about 10M doses of the Pfizer vaccine manufactured in Europe so far (out of 40M ordered).  However, a vital component of that vaccine is sourced from the UK, so that is quite an equal exchange

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

8 minutes ago, slawek said:

There is nothing in the EU/AZ contract about that. There is a clause, in which AZ guarantees that there is no other contract that could conflict with the EU/AZ contract. 

The UK/AZ  contract doesn't contain any such clause either. If a "UK first" clause exists it must be in other contract, UK/Oxford or Oxford/AZ.

Feel free to go argue with the BBC.

[skinnylattej]

3 hours ago, captainb said:

Or mining lithium.

We have lithium rich minerals in Cornwall, and British Lithium are building a medium size refinery now. near Bodmin in Cornwall.

[Bruce Banner]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Whitty said something on the lines of "Immunity from natural infection is proving to be good and he has confidence that immunity from vaccination will prove to be as good".