Halifax January 19

[Discustard]

"However,the bigger picture is actually that house prices have seen next to no movement over the last year, with annual growth of just 0.8%."

"My house earns more than I do" - probably won't hear that one for a while.

[Freki]

6 minutes ago, Discustard said:

"My house earns more than I do" - probably won't hear that one for a while.

And that assertion has a real feel good to it. 

When young people in London will have the sentiment that there is no fear of missing out, I can feel pretty relaxed as well.

[spyguy]

43 minutes ago, Discustard said:

"However,the bigger picture is actually that house prices have seen next to no movement over the last year, with annual growth of just 0.8%."

"My house earns more than I do" - probably won't hear that one for a while.

My house lost more than my gambling addict partner last year .....

I saw some stupid Suthern councillor on one ofhte Sunday poltiics shows.

Bleating about 'Well,, our houses have been much more successful than us at making money'

Which is fine but houses cannot get mortgages to buy other houses.

In this ladies case, her area is seeing jobs disappear and stall as they cannot get people to move to the area with the new skills most copnaies need.

 

 

 

 

[scottbeard]

1 hour ago, pizza said:

January 2018 to January 2019 YoY is negative, -0.2% in fact.  Halifax compare the 3m average to the current month to the 3m average to the same month in the prior year.  Because of the big anomalous reading last month, YoY under their methodology remains positive.

I think the massive fluctuations in the monthly figures is a key reason they major on the 3 month average ones.

I don't think anyone really thought house prices went up 2% in a single month, and I don't believe they've really gone down 3% now.

Cutting through the statistical noise, the main message is that house prices now are about the same as they were a year ago, and the recent trend is slightly downwards.

1 hour ago, hotblack42 said:

If this happens for a year:  0.971^12 = 0.702
30% drop
yee haw!!!

Well that would be great, but I suspect this -ve is as anomalous as the big +ve was last month, and the falls will be a bit more gradual.

[rantnrave]

BBC: UK housing market experiences new year chill

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47155720

[Trump Invective]

Well the prophets predicting -0.6 really earned their pay this month.

 

[Trump Invective]

The Guardian this month: "UK house prices fall in January as Brexit puts off buyers"

Last month: "Surprise increase after sluggish year comes despite uncertainty over Brexit"

I can't even be bothered to speculate as to why they do this

[Captain Kirk]

1 minute ago, Trump Invective said:

The Guardian this month: "UK house prices fall in January as Brexit puts off buyers"

Last month: "Surprise increase after sluggish year comes despite uncertainty over Brexit"

I can't even be bothered to speculate as to why they do this

Bias. Bad news is because of Brexit; good news is in spite of Brexit (Farage, referring to the BBC's bias).

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

 ..and Spring chill, and Brexit chill, and Mother’s Day chill, and Easter chill.... a Terminal Cold really.

[Trump Invective]

1 minute ago, Captain Kirk said:

2 minutes ago, Captain Kirk said:

Bias. Bad news is because of Brexit; good news is in spite of Brexit (Farage, referring to the BBC's bias).

Crazy! Whatever one thinks about Brexit, doing this just undermines their own journalism, as Brexit can't put buyers off suddenly this month when last month they bought anyway despite Brexit. So as well as bias they simply have inaccuracy, which is problematic for what is supposedly a quality newspaper! Im stating the bleeding obvious so I'll just shut up.

[Si1]

The Guardian is a right on liberal elite mouthpiece. They blame too high house prices on Fatcher's deregulation but then blame falling house prices on brexit.

Edited February 7, 2019 by Si1

[LetsBuild]

1 hour ago, Trump Invective said:

Well the prophets predicting -0.6 really earned their pay this month.

 

Indeed, my -4.0% was much closer!

[Wayward]

2 hours ago, Freki said:

 

When young people in London will have the sentiment that there is no fear of missing out, I can feel pretty relaxed as well.

I think that is right...without the fear of 'missing the boat' and the hysteria around ballooning prices and the need to be part of that then it all turns to dust.

[Trump Invective]

4 hours ago, LetsBuild said:

Indeed, my -4.0% was much closer!

Turns out they were right after all. It is -0.6... for the quarter ?

[GreenDevil]

5 hours ago, LetsBuild said:

Indeed, my -4.0% was much closer!

 

4 hours ago, Wayward said:

I think that is right...without the fear of 'missing the boat' and the hysteria around ballooning prices and the need to be part of that then it all turns to dust.

 

25 minutes ago, Trump Invective said:

Turns out they were right after all. It is -0.6... for the quarter ?

 

Well contrary to what the EAs keep telling me (markets never been so good), this is what i am seeing in my inbox, loads of new properties coming on and all the unshifted overpriced stuff from last year, getting reduced thick and fast. Only just now, a bunch of six all reduced. Question is how far will this fall?

[Voice of Doom]

Yes. How far it will fall is the question. Sitting on the sidelines with a deposit, why jump in when you can just wait another month...and another...?

[Chunketh]

31 minutes ago, Voice of Doom said:

Yes. How far it will fall is the question. Sitting on the sidelines with a deposit, why jump in when you can just wait another month...and another...?

With the numbers as they are we only have to stomach paying the rent, prices are going nowhere at the moment..bigger deposit, yes please

[GreenDevil]

1 hour ago, Voice of Doom said:

Yes. How far it will fall is the question. Sitting on the sidelines with a deposit, why jump in when you can just wait another month...and another...?

 

55 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

With the numbers as they are we only have to stomach paying the rent, prices are going nowhere at the moment..bigger deposit, yes please

Yes, -2.9% is a lot if you are looking at the more expensive end of the market. No wonder the South is stagnating.

Why buy indeed.

[pizza]

4 hours ago, GreenDevil said:

Well contrary to what the EAs keep telling me (markets never been so good)...

Same here.  Agents keep calling me to tell me 1) they are really busy and 2) now is a great time to buy because no-one else is buying so there won't be a bidding war.   No points for spotting the contradiction between 1) and 2).  And the problem with 2) is that it means there is no bid in the market, which means prices are too high.

[GreenDevil]

56 minutes ago, pizza said:

Same here.  Agents keep calling me to tell me 1) they are really busy and 2) now is a great time to buy because no-one else is buying so there won't be a bidding war.   No points for spotting the contradiction between 1) and 2).  And the problem with 2) is that it means there is no bid in the market, which means prices are too high.

The front runner is the auction market (cash market). There's been no bid in that for some time. Just the last few fools loading up with debt at 0.75% rates at insane prices. "do you feel lucky" 

[highcontrast]

So if -2.9% is the published figure, how bad must it really be without the figures being massaged and the vested interest bias?

[Kurt Barlow]

Contrary to the EA scare stories in my area the number of rentals are going up to as some people hold off selling to await a 'better price' so we are not seeing the contraction of rental supply and ramping of rents that was predicted. Supply of houses for sale on a plateau. 

I guess the demand side is adjusting. 

Anecdote - my wife works for a major manufacturer and loads of EE process Ops are going home (not just Brexit - more a case of wages have improved back home)

I bet more people are deferring leaving parents or opting for house share. 

[Kurt Barlow]

10 minutes ago, Kurt Barlow said:

Contrary to the EA scare stories in my area the number of rentals are going up to as some people hold off selling to await a 'better price' so we are not seeing the contraction of rental supply and ramping of rents that was predicted. Supply of houses for sale on a plateau. 

I guess the demand side is adjusting. 

Anecdote - my wife works for a major manufacturer and loads of EE process Ops are going home (not just Brexit - more a case of wages have improved back home)

I bet more people are deferring leaving parents or opting for house share. 

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-pressures-see-dramatic-increase-000100222.html

[Fromage Frais]

12 hours ago, pizza said:

Same here.  Agents keep calling me to tell me 1) they are really busy and 2) now is a great time to buy because no-one else is buying so there won't be a bidding war.   No points for spotting the contradiction between 1) and 2).  And the problem with 2) is that it means there is no bid in the market, which means prices are too high.

That always makes me laugh.

let me know if you get anything interesting..... "all our properties are on right move sir!"

Ok 

Watch right move......one or two go sstc over a few months with hardly any instructions.

Hows the market Joe?..... We are so so busy selling like hotcakes buy before you miss out!

next call....."Joe is not with us any more can I help"

 

[Fromage Frais]

3 hours ago, Kurt Barlow said:

Contrary to the EA scare stories in my area the number of rentals are going up to as some people hold off selling to await a 'better price' so we are not seeing the contraction of rental supply and ramping of rents that was predicted. Supply of houses for sale on a plateau. 

I guess the demand side is adjusting. 

Anecdote - my wife works for a major manufacturer and loads of EE process Ops are going home (not just Brexit - more a case of wages have improved back home)

I bet more people are deferring leaving parents or opting for house share. 

I am seeing this also.

it was never mostly about love or being wanted it was cold hard cash in the main.  Eastern European Auf Wiedersehen, Pet.

It will be interesting if this phase 1) Is a cycle where the wages in the east go up and stay up

2) UK trades start to go to the EU on large projects (like my dad a sparky used to do in the late 70/early 80s).

3) The EU wanting to remain competitive is coerced by large corporates to open freedom of movement  to poorer countries still to suppress wages.

Our lovely hero Mark Carneys mission is to trash the £ so it is not impossible that in the medium term the east sucks labour back, the richer countries of the EU have a shortage of labour and UK trades and workers may have a freedom of movement benefit.

I am not saying this is good news as freedom of movement has caused labour to be elastic and thus UK wages have been eroded by inflation to the extent that they have started to equalise with the EU market.

I cite the 90's goldsmith interview with Charlie Rose where free movement/free trade with the poorest in the world = up for them and down for us (if us is the average working man). 

Edited February 8, 2019 by Fromage Frais