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Fromage Frais

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Everything posted by Fromage Frais

  1. Feel that way in my area also they have hit the top and are now getting reductions. That currently is nuts kite flying > high priced but new listings are now not flying off the shelves. Still early days and will be six months or so for the current IRs to full filter through. If nothing changes its potential carnage from October (the streets are pitch black at night round here already) > I am so looking at a few houses and thinking yes you have reduced to 550 from 650 but if you had listed it at 550/575 in January you would have sold it greedy bugger. That particular listing was bought for 468 late 2018 and is down from 650 to 550 and two agents. Once it gets to 500 (if it does) then that's not a great return since then all things considered and they would be an offer away from being down.
  2. Just say my mp is very good. Had problems and was on it. One involved getting people round the table and resolving it. No complaints from me … shame I cannot vote for government and mp separately. excellent work ethic and soft skills tbf
  3. I like this. I am currently looking at at least trying to get a couple of large arrays going near my business. If I can get say enough kw to at least shave some use and top up a few power wall type batteries. too many years to pay off previously… but with inflation like this the equation changes somewhat go knows what the panels and electric will be in 15/20 years
  4. Problem is what is viable when those costs go up XX% Actually any activity when the costs go up XX% and the price you can charge x% is almost doomed.
  5. Let me tell you something as a small time businessman... there is nothing worse than near zero rates for helping richer folks. Rates do need to rise slowly and surely, but not to wipe the feet away from SMEs the business that have always made up the majority of our economy. I own a SME give me higher rates rather than rising bills any day of the week. At least you can choose to be in debt. That means no pricing of risk that means I walk up to a deal and no matter what I can do with a premises a large company can buy it for near zero rates.... because I cannot get near those rates! Large companies do not need the rates, they have the capital, they have been using low rates to their advantage to build up their capital. That dos not hold up to reality what kind of companies are you talking about maybe the apples of this world. The others have been borrowing loads and wasting it on buybacks etc etc If you have hoarded cash in a large company you will get ousted for someone who will either gear up the cash or pay it out. Same for houses its easier for a rich person to by 5 than for a working person to buy one with zero rates. They get the working people to pay the high rents to cover any rise in interest rates....they accumulate the capital the workers pay the rents. Er no. Houses are crap people often don't pay. So you need a return for that if that return is not as much as either interest rate or a dividend folk will not bother. If rates rise why would rich folks buy crappy pubs/hotels and houses when they can get x% return doing nothing and the shares offer move as yields rise compared to cash. They don't make land anymore? They are not a land play they are a yield play based on low rates. Higher rates are the cure it was literally my job working with millionaires buying commercial property when I was younger and I can tell you they all have loads of loans and run their lives at a loss with rolling facilities = no tax.... you can do that with rates near 0 it is not as easy when rates are 5%+ Millionaires only borrowed at ultra low rates not because they had to, but because it made more sense for them to do so.....did the math. Whilst that may make sense to you its not as simple as that. A lot are in the shit. When you make x million a year and the rates are 0.x% you can borrow x million with no issue. We are experiencing a shift and like all shifts people are going to go down. Some rich are geniuses others lucky some gamblers and you will see soon that zero rates will impact many of them. In a previous role my workplace was bought by a Chinese investor... had 50 million cash.... which was loans from Singapore from xx million from China asset backed on his stuff there. he used that money to buy residential and commercial property in the UK in excess of this amount. You will see this shortly unravel 2/3% and up
  6. tax cuts with higher interest rates is almost reganomics... they would need to cut back spending to complete the picture. This is one of the guys from back at that time with his rationale on how that worked to lower inflation.
  7. Thats not a great angle. Lets not do something needed because some rich folks may do well. Let me tell you something as a small time businessman... there is nothing worse than near zero rates for helping richer folks. That means no pricing of risk that means I walk up to a deal and no matter what I can do with a premises a large company can buy it for near zero rates.... because I cannot get near those rates! Also its even worse in my industry if I see sea a hotel for sale its not a richer better version of me who can use scale to make more money buying it...... I am in competition with companies with 100s of shareholders and back by Blackrock etc and private equity..... for businesses under a few million £ the historical preserve of individuals/families which now cannot compete. Same for houses its easier for a rich person to by 5 than for a working person to buy one with zero rates. If rates rise why would rich folks buy crappy pubs/hotels and houses when they can get x% return doing nothing and the shares offer move as yields rise compared to cash. Higher rates are the cure it was literally my job working with millionaires buying commercial property when I was younger and I can tell you they all have loads of loans and run their lives at a loss with rolling facilities = no tax.... you can do that with rates near 0 it is not as easy when rates are 5%+
  8. haha lost hundreds of thousands borrowed 100k paid most of it back now. Where is my Range Rover Rishi The houses are 550 and not 450 now though so I am thankful for that.
  9. Problem is who is rich. Is the guy partying all the time with a 10k overdraft 800k mortgage and a million £ house rich. or is a guy with no debts eating beans with 400k cash rich…. As he try’s to buy a house that’s on the same street? Tax assets and guy one will be in negative equity and balance sheet. tax cash in the bank and guy two will run out and spend it asap. a fairer scenario willl be to tax assets and reduce tax on income. At least that way the market will be efficient. I don’t cake if a guy has a billion £ I am pissed off the government has force fed the property market so I cannot buy a msg family home for 10x a decent local salary etc etc
  10. Yep Speculation/Fomo plus the 10 reduction a rise caused in borrowing capacity et voila. om that basis we could be 20 off peak plus already just vendors do not know it yet
  11. Last time I was tempted house 450 and falling in price and my mate Rishi stepped in to make sure that I did not get it as everything sold as soon as the stamp duty was cut. Five year fix was about 1.6/1.8 for a 5y fixI think around that time was looking at circa 200k mortgage which saw would have been circa 800/900 a month for 25 years back then. So now if all was equal I would looking at 3.2/3.5% and rising.... So about 16X,000 now some 35k off (7%) Problem is I would now be getting less for the old property so in certain cases its even more unaffordable. aaaaannnd...... properties like that are listed for 500/550 currently. Rate rises are brutal
  12. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/aviva-charged-22000-cancel-dads-equity-release-loan-even-though/ I saw this article today and I wondered how many folks would be in that situation. Older bread and butter folks may well find themselves sitting on large paper equity. They may well have kids in their 30s/40s who even with better jobs cannot have a life as good as theirs. Along comes on of these companies and offers them a tempting way to solve these issues….. Could it be that a lot of “cash” buyers simply have the loan against another asset ergo this form of buyer rather than paying the most will revert to being the bargain hunters of old? It feels that was in my area which is a prime retirement destination. Government pumps and then as soon as prices jump down south the prices bullwhip/radiate out here six months later….. They fall down south …… dead During covid it would have taken aaages to sell a house and then buy the riverside shack in Horning for 800k so ER/MEW offers a much nicer chain free solution especially with the Sunak second home tax break to help the richest during lockdown.
  13. We would be where Canada is on that graph. I can only speak of my area. 2019 softening up not that great (getting close to buying a house as deals could be done) Covid and bam + 20-30% bear rally on steroids. The clearest form of denial to me is having a house listed for 2019 + 20% listed initially when rates near 0% and now with rates ratcheting up.... changing agents and keeping the price the same with no interest. Fundamentally the potential buyers or at least some of them have less to spend now so smell the coffee and get ahead. The benefit/drawback the USA has is that the frankly more sane policy of having a 30 year fixed mortgage..... housing gets more or less instantly unaffordable once inflation comes along as the longer dated government debt shoots up. Add this to the disgusting wholesale purchase of meh homes by corporate flippers and you have the recipe for a violent housing crash.... which will correct much quicker. Ours is going to be a nasty grinding torture machine for people who extended themselves if rates stay/revet to historic averages or more.
  14. Crazy But then a quick look on sold prices and there are some sold for 25... million Must be a lovely place
  15. Sounds about right. I think for all the pain and impression of a huge crash in the 90s the overall fall was something like 20-30% Obviously for some properties it was vastly more. Wildcard here is in 2019 pre covid prices where softening so circa 20/30% here is put and wind from Sunak. So it may well be 50% from the current asking prices (not sold as they are more realistic in the main)
  16. Yes same story for me If only I knew in the 90s that being a graduate trainee on 22k and humping everything that moved, that I did not need a 40k flat in the city...... I should have gone to the suburbs and bought a meh family home for 70K 70k / 22k = 3.x salary Same house how is over 400k an lets just say I am now earn over 3/4 times now. Yet same boring house is 4x salary + JOKE (not to mention cost of living inflation since then)
  17. Agreed. There is a house I like vendor paid 460 in late 2018. Listed November last year ..... 650 pff Reduced 600 > 590 > 575 and all before March Then now changed agents and 575 > 600 guide price. No realism in market. I respect its sometimes worth a cheeky test for mugs especially when folk from London are about in Norfolk. However sometimes you have take a look and realise that even with inflation the house you just bought with near 0% mortgage rates may not be worth the same a couple of years later with 1.75% rates..... being a nice house and for sale 6+months should give the idea.
  18. Maybe But its so bad round here I don't think looking at 1m homes in the Norfolk countryside on right move is going to make people vote conservative. Even the folk who bought them last year cannot by them now.
  19. yes managing agents are on commission. They always seek the maximum they can get at any time. Its like people who say raising rates won't reduce inflation...... if you don't actually have money you cannot pay the new higher prices so of course it works to some extent.
  20. I would not be so fast. Already despite prices being boosted to high heaven some folk are asking for action to get the market moving. We on here know that realistic prices get the market moving but those folks always want demand stuffing. If I was an evil cynical politician my advice to Truss would be.... concentrate on heating bills and the cost of living. Only interfere with housing if its to help defaulters leave fast, walk away fro debts or if someone comes to the end of their fix and have not missed payments > move to a good deal without being forced onto SVR etc etc. Almost encourage 20-30% flash crash and then if you are going to demand stuff do it with 6-12 months of election clock ticking so you ride in with a nice economy (hope war finished by then etc). If not they will be showing money down a black hole as this sucker is going down and will still be falling come election time.
  21. I have bid on many houses. I miss out but I refuse to borrow an amount that would result in my poverty if rates ever returned to historic normal levels. some houses pre covid I even bid near cash for and was always pipped by borrowers in chains with loans sometimes only 5/10 percent more… many still not on the land reg so then did not sell all for a few grand. My kids are cramped and need a larger house and those 450 houses are now listed with prices near 600. If they are right well done them…. If they are wrong they made me suffer so why should I step in with my money to protect them from their own decisions. If you want to legislate to prevent falls you should legislate to prevent them going up in the first place. We are not taking cheap at this time we are talking about 10/20 off which is not crash ten percent used to be a reasonable opening offer. If that ******s them……. Why where such irresponsible people lent so much money.
  22. Thats assuming they want to catch a falling knife. On paper I am supposedly "well off" Don't want to buy a 600k fixer upper in my low wage area that was 400K in 2019 thanks. I could take out a hulking loan and borrow against my business in a one way bet But folks we are still under 2% base rates! Just because you can get a x million £ loan does not mean you would want one at this time. Imagine that 5 mil loan in five years if the rate goes to near inflation and even if inflation halves that will be circa 5%
  23. I don't think its chicken to be smart about things. This was always going to happen and the weapons needed to be in place already. If the Taiwanese do not wish to be part of china then it was always going to be a porcupine strategy at least during the first phase. For the US it is different the Pacific is their pond now and if they go in its a different ball game and we will be involved.
  24. As posted before Begbies tray or (I think ) said there where xx k insolvencies in the pipeline and things where looking not too clever. the covid …. And nothing. the end of covid opening of courts and potentially doubling of utility costs plus inflation are not going to help.
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